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Los Angeles Angels (Wilson) vs. Kansas City Royals (Guthrie) – June 29th, 2014

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Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Angels 
SIDE :-1164.6
Vs.Date: 2014-06-29
Time: 13:10:00

Generated from 62 Previous Games

Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals
O/U :8.5
3.77 = 8.37

 

Pick: Los Angeles Angels -116

Today’s pick is red hot.

Yesterday, LAA seemed like it had overly strong odds.
Today, it’s only fair to assume that whatever was causing the inflation is still present.

LAA’s strong WL record of late vs KCR’s weak WL record of late.
(PVI bettors would put strong money on KCR based on these numbers therefore giving LAA some strong odds.)

If this was the case yesterday, it’s all the more today.

Let’s look at what we’re actually dealing with:

 

 

PITCHING

On the bump for the Angels today is C.J. Wilson:

  • Historically, Wilson has 21 at bats OVER .300 AVG, across 2 KCR batters.
  • Historically, Wilson has 79 at bats UNDER .300 AVG, across 10 KCR batters.
  • Wilson is pitching an acceptable 3.70 ERA all games.
  • Wilson is pitching a vulnerable 4.28 ERA on the road.
  • Wilson has been put up a sloppy 5.50 ERA L3G.

Did you know:

  • Wilson is 4-0 vs the Royals with an ERA of 2.59 and a WHIP of 1.104.

 

On the bump for the Royals today is Jeremy Guthrie:

  • Historically, Guthrie has 53 at bats OVER .300 AVG, across 4 LAA batters.
  • Historically, Guthrie has 55 at bats UNDER .300 AVG, across 5 LAA batters.
  •  Guthrie is pitching an acceptable 3.75 ERA all games.
  •  Guthrie is pitching an acceptable 3.48 ERA on the road.
  •  Guthrie has been put up a solid 2.25 ERA L3G.

Did you know:

  • Guthrie is 3-5 vs the Angels with an ERA of 4.26 and a WHIP of 1.008.

 

In general, Guthrie is the better pitcher in 2014.
However, when these teams face each other, without a question, Wilson gets the nod.
If today’s matchup boiled down to only the pitching, we’d cap it at about a  50/50 chance for either side.

That said, there are more elements at play than only the pitching.

Did you know:

  • Despite the discrepancy in the L3G ERA, Guthrie has given up 17H L3G, while Wilson has given up 18H for a 1 hit difference?

 

HITTING

The Angels:
4.8 RPG all season.
4.9 RPG @ road.
5.1 RPG vs RHP.
5.7 RPG L7G.

The Royals:
4.1 RPG all season.
3.7 RPG @ home.
3.4 RPG vs LHP.
3.0 RPG L7G.

If this came down to only the hitting, LAA would comfortably win 9 out of 10 times.

 

 

BULLPEN

The Angels:
4.36 ERA all season.
4.75 ERA @ road.

The Royals:
3.66 ERA all season.
4.56 ERA @ home.

So the Royals have a slight edge with the pen today.

That said, there was a rain delay in the 4th inning yesterday, causing both teams to ride their bullpens.
This could prove to be advantageous for the Royals as their pen appears to go a little bit deeper than the Angels’.

Bullpen advantage goes to KCR. It’s unclear how strong, but we cap the advantage at no more than 65:35, worst case scenario.

 

 

UMPIRE

Todd Tichenor in 2013:
His home win percentage was 47.1%
His Over in totals was 41.9%

Todd Tichenor in 2014:
His home win percentage is 40%
His Over in totals was 71.4%

So far this season, it’s looking like Todd has tightened up his strike-zone and has slightly favoured the visiting team.

While this is good news for the Angels due to Todd not having a home-team-bias…
This is also bad news due to the smaller strike-zone favouring the better pitcher.
This is also bad news due to the smaller strike-zone favouring the lesser bats.

Since the SZ is smaller and could have an effect on the pitching, it’s worth analyzing the pitchers’ arsenal.

According to Pitch FX…

Guthrie throws his:

  • 4-seamer 46% of the time.
  • Changeup 21.8% of the time.
  • Slider 11.3% of the time.
  • Curveball 8.4% of the time.
  • Sinker 7.8% of the time.
  • Cutter 3.1% of the time.
  • Ephuus 1.0% of the time.

He’s used to throwing his Slider to paint the corners so that might be a tough pitch, but depending on the height of Tichenor’s SZ, he’ll still have his Curve and Sinker to rely on.

All in all, his #1 and #2 pitchers should have absolutely no problem finding the zone and Guthrie looks all set to pitch a solid game despite the anticipated small SZ.

 

Wilson throws his:

  • 4-seamer 25.2% of the time.
  • 2-seamer 24.6% of the time.
  • Curveball 21.0% of the time.
  • Changeup 16.1% of the time.
  • Slider 10.1% of the time.
  • Cutter 3.0% of the time.

So once again, we see a crazy arsenal in Wilson as well, and his #1 #2 and #4 pitches will have no problems with the small SZ. Wilson is all set to pitch a solid game.

 

Did you know:
The Angels are 7-2 when facing Kansas City in the Last 3 Years?

 

 

ATS MATCHUPS

Stats to SUPPORT the LAA pick:

When WILSON CRAIG ‘s Team played as Home or Away Team- With a spread between 100 and 120 10-5-0
When WILSON CRAIG ‘s Team played as Road Team- in the month of June 10-4-1
When WILSON CRAIG ‘s Team played as Favourite- With a spread between 100 and 120 16-9-0
When WILSON CRAIG ‘s Team played as Road Favourite- With Total between 8.5 and 9.0 7-5-1
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS played as Road Favourite- Vs KANSAS CITY 26-14-0
When WILSON CRAIG ‘s Team played as Favourite- in the month of June 18-6-1
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS played as Road Team- With a spread between 100 and 120 21-14-0
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS team played as a Road team – Playing on Sunday – During a day game – Coming off 1 under – Coming off a Road win as a Underdog 7-4-0
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS team played as a Road team – Vs AL Conference – Playing on Sunday – Coming off 1 under – Coming off a Road win as a Underdog 8-4-0
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Total is between 8.5 to 9.0 – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a Road win – Coming off a Road win as a Underdog 22-9-0
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Vs AL Conference – During a day game – Coming off a 1 game win – Coming off a Road win as a Underdog 8-5-0
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Total is between 8.5 to 9.0 – During a day game – Coming off a Road win – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 11-3-0
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS team played as a 100 to -120 road Favorite – During a day game – Total is between 8.5 to 9.0 7-4-0
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS team played as a road team – During the month of June – During a day game 47-31-0
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS team played as a road team – Total is between 8.5 to 9.0 – Vs Non Division Opponent 193-167-0
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS team Played as road team as a Favorite – During a day game – Vs AL CENTRAL opponent 21-14-0
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS team Played as road team as a Favorite – During a day game – Total is between 8.5 to 9.0 32-13-0
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS team played as a 100 to -120 road Favorite – Vs AL Conference – Last 3 years 14-8-0
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS team Played as road team as a Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – Total is 8.5 25-16-0
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS team Played as road team as a Favorite – Playing on Sunday – Total is 8.5 7-3-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Road team as a Favorite – During the month of June – Total is between 8.5 to 9.0 – Coming off a Win vs. AL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 25-16-0
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS Played as a Favorite – During Last 2 Years – With 1 Under or More 77 – 51 – 0
When LOS ANGELES ANGELS played as a road team – During Last 2 Years – With SU Record of 4 Win 1 Lost in L5G 23 – 12 – 0
When KANSAS CITY team played as a Home team – After a conference game – During a day game – Coming off 1 under – Coming off a Home loss 7-15-0
When KANSAS CITY team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Vs AL Conference – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Coming off a Loss vs. AL WEST opponent – Scored 2 or more runs FOR in their last game 10-19-0
When KANSAS CITY team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Vs Conference Opponent – Playing on Sunday – Coming off a 1 game loss – Coming off a Home loss 4-10-0
When KANSAS CITY team Played as Home team as a Underdog – After a non division game – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher – Coming off a Home loss 4-8-0
When KANSAS CITY team played as a 100 to 120 home Underdog – Total is between 8.5 to 9.0 – Vs AL WEST opponent 9-18-0
When KANSAS CITY team Played as home team as a Underdog – Vs Conference Opponent – Playing on Sunday 21-42-0
When KANSAS CITY team Played as home team as a Underdog – Vs Conference Opponent – Vs AL WEST opponent 65-121-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a Home team – Coming off vs. American League opponent – During a day game – Total is between 8.5 to 9.0 – Coming off a 1 game loss – Coming off a 4 run lost – Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher 5-11-0

Stats to THREATEN the LAA pick:

 

When KANSAS CITY Played as a Underdog – During Last 5 Years – With 1 Under or Less – Lost Last Game by 4 Runs or More – With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G 9 – 2 – 0
When KANSAS CITY played as any home/road team – During Last 5 Years – With 1 Under or More – Lost Last Game by 4 Runs or More – With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G 16 – 8 – 0
When KANSAS CITY Played as a Underdog – During Current Season – Lost Last Game by 4 Runs or Less 8 – 2 – 0
When KANSAS CITY played as Underdog- in the month of June 6-4-0
When GUTHRIE JEREMY ‘s Team played as Home Team- With a spread between 100 and 120 18-12-0
When KANSAS CITY team played as a 100 to 120 home Underdog – 3rd game of a series – During the month of June 15-5-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a 100 to 120 Home Underdog – During the month of June – Before a division game – Coming off a Home loss as a Favorite – Coming off a 4 run lost 10-5-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a Home team – Last 3 years – During the month of June – Total is between 8.5 to 9.0 – Coming off a lost in game 2 of a series – Coming off 1 under 16-10-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a Home team – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Playing on Sunday – During a day game – Coming off a 8 Game Home Stand – Coming off a 1 game loss – Coming off a lost in game 2 of a series 12-7-0

 

While the ATS Matchups clearly have LAA as far better here, there is enough with Kansas to warn us off of betting more than a single unit.

 

 

Today’s Prediction: LOS ANGELES to win 6-4 in a slobberknocker.

 

 

 

 

 

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