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Colorado Rockies (Flande) vs. Washington Nationals (Zimmerman) – Preview June 30th, 2014

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Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 
O/U :7.5

2.03

Vs.

Date: 2014-06-30
Time: 18:05:00

Generated from 45 Previous Games

Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals
SIDE :-225

4.91 = 6.94

 

Pick: Washington Nationals -225

We don’t like to pick high chalk games, but we’ve made an exception for this one.

PITCHING + HITTING

Flande is brand new and started his 2014 debut by allowing 24th place in hitting (.OPS) St. Louis  4 ER across 5 IP.

Zimmerman, on the other hand, has gathered a lethal 1.42 ERA and a WHIP of 1.158 across 3 games vs St. Louis.

Zimmerman’s control of the STL lineup should greatly mitigate Colorado’s strong bats who are hitting 5.1 RPG L7G.

On the flip side, Washington is a little bit in a hitting lull at 3.4 RPG L7G, but based on what we’ve see from Flande, Flande should help them improve their RPG tonight.

Given the stats at hand and the odds pricing, we suspect sharp money on Washington and we’ll be looking to piggy-back that action. With everything else backing the Washington play, we have good reason to think the sharp money is correct.

 

ATS FORECAST

First and foremost, this entire case rests on the ATS Firecast which predicts a near 2 point advantage across 45 games. That’s a huge deal.

 

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

COLORADO 36 – 46 43.90 56.10 50.36 0.47 2 – 5 28.57 71.43 51.02 0.40 3 – 11 21.43 78.57 63.27 0.42
WASHINGTON 41 – 38 51.90 48.10 49.86 0.51 4 – 3 57.14 42.86 61.22 0.59 6 – 8 42.86 57.14 55.61 0.49

L7G Washington has a 19 point advantage. This is a case of HOT meets COLD.

As long as Washington plays, they should win 9 out of 10 times.

 

 

ATS RAYMOND REPORT

Colorado is showing a 42% chance to win with plenty of red.
Washington is showing a 54% chance to win with plenty of green.

COLORADOTeam Name: COLORADO(Road Team)
Money Line: COLORADO +190 vs WASHINGTON -210
Spread Line: COLORADO +1.5 -115 —– WASHINGTON -1.5 -105
O/U: COLORADO 7.5 -115 —– WASHINGTON 7.5 -105
Pitchers: COLORADO – Y Flande (L) vs WASHINGTON – J Zimmermann (R)
Game Date: Monday,June 30 2014 6:05 PM
Last Game: win 10 – 4 vs Milwaukee Brewers
Current Game: Washington Nationals
Next Game: At WASHINGTON
Stats & Trends: COLORADO vs. WASHINGTON
PVI Rating on Winning: 43.9%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 41.89%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 51.02%
Streaks: 1 SU Win – 2 Over
Road Teams % of winning this game: 42%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 45%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 5.11
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 5.18

 

Road Team
(COLORADO)
When COLORADO is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When COLORADO is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 5-5 153-153 50 6-4-0 156-150-0 44.51
vs Non-Division opponent 6-18 353-450 34.48 12-9-3 330-417-56 49.34
vs Conference opponent 5-12 246-296 37.4 9-5-3 217-280-45 46.03
Playing in the month of June 4-7 200-228 41.55 8-2-1 178-219-31 37.58
Playing on Monday 1-4 67-78 33.11 3-0-2 68-65-12 24.44
Played as road Underdog 15-24 387-539 40.13 21-14-4 397-464-65 46.95
After a Non-Division Game 7-17 354-441 36.85 13-8-3 320-419-56 47.4
After a Conference Game 5-12 257-310 37.37 8-7-2 230-292-45 51.31
vs NL WEST Division Opponent 10-9 114-101 52.83 10-5-4 103-101-11 41.42
vs NL Conference Opponent 15-21 329-387 43.81 19-10-7 309-345-62 43.62
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 2-5 117-147 36.45 4-3-0 112-134-18 48.67
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 15-20 312-379 44.01 17-12-6 301-335-55 47.03
Coming off 2 over 2-5 63-74 37.28 4-3-0 67-61-9 45.26
Coming off a win 6-11 267-308 40.86 10-4-3 279-260-36 38.41
Coming off a Road Win as a Underdog 4-9 140-171 37.9 7-4-2 147-143-21 42.84
During a night game 10-20 391-486 38.96 14-10-6 387-428-62 47.1
Coming off a 4 road trip (since 1996) 6-10 10-12 41.48 4-11-1 7-13-2 69.17
Coming off a 6 runs win 0-1 13-18 20.97 1-0-0 21-10-0 16.13
Coming off a score 10 runs FOR in last game 2-1 13-8 64.29 3-0-0 14-5-2 13.16
Coming off a score 4 runs AGAINST in last game 5-5 88-78 51.51 7-2-1 72-85-9 38.18
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 4-10 215-236 38.12 7-5-2 199-214-38 46.75
vs WASHINGTON (since 1996) 41-23 17-24 52.76 23-37-4 18-19-4 56.51
Coming off a Win over NL CENTRAL division opponent 0-1 52-64 22.42 0-1-0 55-57-4 75.45
Coming off a day game 5-9 210-249 40.73 10-3-1 204-226-29 37.82
Coming off a series loss 2-4 100-136 37.85 2-3-1 103-114-19 56.27
Last 30 days 4-8 206-237 39.92 9-2-1 186-226-31 36.52
Last 45 days 6-13 302-359 38.64 11-6-2 280-333-48 44.81
Last 60 days 8-18 402-481 38.15 13-10-3 374-443-66 48.85
Last 90 days 16-26 590-727 41.45 21-14-7 565-659-93 46.92
Vs. Right handed pitchers 10-20 420-546 38.41 15-10-5 417-485-64 46.89
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 11-16 439-534 42.93 15-7-5 406-498-69 43.46
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 3-7 192-220 38.3 7-2-1 188-199-25 36.82

 

WASHINGTONTeam Name: WASHINGTON(Home Team)
Money Line: WASHINGTON -210 vs COLORADO +190
Spread Line: WASHINGTON -1.5 -105 —– COLORADO +1.5 -115
O/U: WASHINGTON 7.5 -105 —– COLORADO 7.5 -115
Pitchers: WASHINGTON – J Zimmermann (R) vs COLORADO – Y Flande (L)
Game Date: Monday,June 30 2014 6:05 PM
Last Game: lost 2 – 7 vs Chicago Cubs
Current Game: Colorado Rockies
Next Game: Vs. COLORADO
Stats & Trends: WASHINGTON vs. COLORADO
PVI Rating on Winning: 51.9%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 47.22%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 61.22%
Streaks: 3 SU Lost – 3 Over
Home Teams % of winning this game: 54%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 54%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.64
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.56

 

Home Team
(WASHINGTON)
When WASHINGTON is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When WASHINGTON is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 3-5 142-164 41.96 3-5-0 156-150-0 55.76
vs Non-Division opponent 12-10 378-425 50.81 11-9-2 330-417-56 50.41
vs Conference opponent 9-7 257-285 51.84 7-7-2 217-280-45 53.17
Playing in the month of June 7-3 195-233 57.78 4-6-0 178-219-31 57.58
Playing on Monday 1-3 63-82 34.23 1-3-0 68-65-12 61.94
Played as home Favorite 20-15 458-439 54.1 16-15-4 397-437-63 50.4
After a Non-Division Game 12-10 365-421 50.5 8-11-3 326-406-54 56.68
After a Conference Game 10-7 274-289 53.75 8-8-1 227-292-44 53.13
vs NL WEST Division Opponent 4-3 101-103 53.33 2-4-1 85-105-14 60.97
vs NL Conference Opponent 20-15 335-374 52.2 14-17-4 290-356-63 54.98
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 5-5 129-139 49.07 3-6-1 104-141-23 62.11
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 20-15 337-377 52.17 15-17-3 294-357-63 53.99
Coming off 1 over 9-2 138-162 63.91 5-6-0 140-141-19 52.37
Coming off a lost 13-5 355-397 59.72 10-8-0 329-374-49 48.82
Coming off a Road Lost as a Favorite 1-0 16-22 71.06 0-1-0 19-17-2 73.61
During a night game 14-11 401-476 50.86 15-8-2 387-428-62 43.65
Coming off a 6 road trip 1-1 19-25 46.59 1-0-1 21-20-3 24.39
Coming off a 5 runs loss 2-0 37-21 81.9 1-1-0 25-30-3 52.28
Coming off a score 2 runs FOR in last game 5-2 62-79 57.7 4-3-0 74-56-11 42.97
Coming off a score 7 runs AGAINST in last game 2-0 33-37 73.57 2-0-0 30-35-5 26.93
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 11-8 266-283 53.17 9-7-3 234-273-42 48.8
vs COLORADO (since 1996) 23-41 27-16 49.37 23-37-4 22-14-7 50.28
Coming off a Lost over NL CENTRAL division opponent 4-0 84-70 77.28 2-2-0 64-80-10 52.78
Coming off a game that went over 9-2 138-162 63.91 5-6-0 140-141-19 52.37
Coming off a day game 7-8 197-229 46.46 4-10-1 180-214-32 62.87
Coming off a lost in game 2 of a series 5-1 41.67 3-3-0 25
Last 30 days 8-3 204-239 59.39 5-6-0 186-226-31 54.7
Last 45 days 12-9 312-349 52.17 10-9-2 280-333-48 50.85
Last 60 days 14-10 414-469 52.61 11-11-2 374-443-66 52.11
Last 90 days 23-18 613-704 51.33 18-19-4 565-659-93 52.6
Vs. Left handed pitchers 5-4 163-182 51.41 6-1-2 143-176-26 34.73
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 20-16 435-524 50.46 14-19-3 396-500-63 56.69
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 8-5 249-302 53.37 7-6-0 229-286-36 50.84

 

ATS MATCHUPS

Stats to SUPPORT Washington:

When WASHINGTON played as Home Favourite- in the month of June 17-8-0
When WASHINGTON played as Favourite- With a spread between 200 and 220 20-6-0
When WASHINGTON played as Home Team- With a spread between 200 and 220 18-9-0
When WASHINGTON team played as a Home team – Vs Conference Opponent – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a 1 game loss – Coming off 1 over 25-16-0
When WASHINGTON team Played as Home team as a Favorite – After a conference game – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Coming off a Loss vs. NL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off 1 over 6-4-0
When WASHINGTON team Played as Home team as a Favorite – During a night game – Before a non division game – Coming off 1 over – Coming off a Road loss 8-5-0
When WASHINGTON team played as a Home team – After a non division game – During a night game – Coming off a 5 run lost – Scored 2 or less runs FOR in their last game 8-5-0
When WASHINGTON team played as a -200 to -220 home Favorite – After a non division game – Before a conference game 8-3-0
When WASHINGTON team Played as home team as a Favorite – During the month of June – Vs. Left handed pitchers 28-13-0
When WASHINGTON team Played as home team as a Favorite – During a night game – Vs. Left handed pitchers 97-54-0
When WASHINGTON team played as a home team – During the month of June – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 48-32-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a -200 to -220 Home Favorite – Vs NL Conference – 1st game of a series – Before a conference game – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a 1 game loss 14-2-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a -200 to -220 Home Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – 1st game of a series – Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 12-5-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Coming off vs. National League opponent – After a conference game – During a night game – Coming off a 1 game loss – Allowed 7 runs AGAINST in their last game – Coming off a Loss vs. NL CENTRAL opponent 31-13-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs. Left handed pitchers – During a night game – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Coming off a Loss vs. NL CENTRAL opponent – Scored 2 or less runs FOR in their last game – Coming off a day game 13-6-0
When WASHINGTON Played as a Favorite – During Last 4 Years – With SU Record of 1 Win 4 Lost in L5G 39 – 25 – 0
When WASHINGTON Played as a Favorite – During Last 3 Years – With SU Record of 1 Win 4 Lost in L5G 29 – 15 – 0
When WASHINGTON Played as a Favorite – During Last 2 Years – With 1 Over or More 79 – 49 – 0
When COLORADO played as Underdog- in the month of June 25-50-0
When COLORADO played as Home or Away Team- in the month of June 8-17-0
When COLORADO played as Road Underdog- Vs NL East Division 35-65-0
When COLORADO played as Road Underdog- With a spread between 180 and 200 15-30-0
When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs NL Conference – Before a conference game – Coming off a Road win – Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent 31-62-0
When COLORADO team played as a Road team – After a conference game – Before a conference game – Coming off a 2 game over – Coming off a series loss 6-14-0
When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – After a non division game – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a 1 game win 21-46-0
When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs Conference Opponent – Before a non division game – Coming off a 1 game win – Coming off a 2 game over 2-12-0
When COLORADO team played as a Road team – After a non division game – Before a non division game – Coming off a series loss – Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent 7-13-0
When COLORADO team played as a 180 to 200 road Underdog – Total is 7.5 – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 4-12-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs NL Conference – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – During a night game – Coming off a 1 game win – Coming off a day game – Coming off a 2 game over 8-15-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a 180 to 200 Road Underdog – Vs Conference Opponent – Vs Non Division Opponent – 1st game of a series – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 54-134-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a 180 to 200 Road Underdog – Vs Conference Opponent – Coming off vs. National League opponent – Before a conference game – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 93-198-0
When COLORADO Played as road team as a Underdog – During Current Season – Won Last Game by 6 Runs or Less 4 – 9 – 0

Stats to THREATEN Washington:

 

When COLORADO played as Road Team- Vs WASHINGTON 20-10-0
When COLORADO played as Home or Away Team- Vs WASHINGTON 45-30-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a Road team – After a non division game – Coming off vs. National League opponent – Before a non division game – Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a 4 Game Road Trip 10-5-0
When WASHINGTON team played as a Home team – After a non division game – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Coming off a Loss vs. NL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a Road loss 4-8-0

 

The ATS Matchups SUPPORT vs THREAT analysis speaks for itself.

 

 

Tonight’s Prediction: WASHINGTON to win 7-4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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