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Miami Marlins (Heaney) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Miller) – Preview July 5th, 2014

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Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 
O/U :7.53.67
Vs.Date: 2014-07-05
Time: 13:15:00Generated from 83 Previous Games
St Louis Cardinals
St Louis Cardinals
SIDE :-131
4.16 = 7.83

 

Pick: Miami Marlins +125 (1/2 unit)

 

This is today’s value shot of the day. The game starts in less than an hour so we’ll just breeze through some of the main points here.

STL is powerrated at -167 but is opening at -140 and has moved to -135 since indicating that there is significant money on Miami being bet. Florida having 3 times as many people could explain this, but when we look at the action, 75% of the public action is on St. Louis indicating that big money and minority money is on Miami.

  • We suspect that we are seeing sharp money on Miami when we look at the this market position.

  • There is a stigma that new pitchers come out the gate as sloppy and slack but we have not seen that and this consideration is documented to cost money when followed as a rule.

If we’re going to chastise a pitcher in this contest, it should be Miller who is, to be generous, established as being at least ‘less-than’ adequate. Not only is Miller marking a 8.16 ERA L3Gbut he’s particularly weak against left-handed hitters.

  • Miller is marking a 5.10 ERA vs LHH and  MIA have plenty of them that are hitting over a .700 OPS.

  • The hitting at first glance appears perfectly even, but while the Marlins are marking 4.3 RPG L7G, the Cardinals are ice cold at the plate of late trickling a 2.3 RPG L7G.

  • St. Louis is 6-1 vs the Marlins L3Y when playing @ STL.

 

Bullpens are about even.

 

RAYMOND REPORT

It’s clear that in this position, Miami has it’s work cut out for them…to put it mildly.

MIAMITeam Name: MIAMI(Road Team)
Money Line: MIAMI +126 vs ST LOUIS -136
Spread Line: MIAMI +1.5 -170 —– ST LOUIS -1.5 +150
O/U: MIAMI 8 -105 —– ST LOUIS 8 -115
Pitchers: MIAMI – A Heaney (L) vs ST LOUIS – S Miller (R)
Game Date: Saturday,July 05 2014 1:15 PM
Last Game: lost 2 – 3 vs St Louis Cardinals
Current Game: St Louis Cardinals
Next Game: At ST LOUIS
Stats & Trends: MIAMI vs. ST LOUIS
PVI Rating on Winning: 47.67%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 40%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 38.78%
Streaks: 2 SU Lost – 1 Under
Road Teams % of winning this game: 38%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 52%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.41
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.4

 

Road Team
(MIAMI)
When MIAMI is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When MIAMI is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 8 2-3 84-114 41.21 3-2-0 80-102-16 48.02
vs Non-Division opponent 8-15 373-486 39.1 13-9-1 355-444-60 48.24
vs Conference opponent 5-12 257-323 36.86 10-6-1 233-299-48 46.85
Playing in the month of July 0-1 21-38 17.8 0-1-0 26-27-6 75.47
Playing on Saturday 2-5 93-117 36.43 3-3-1 101-98-11 49.63
Played as road Underdog 14-26 402-578 38.01 17-20-3 421-488-71 53.87
After a Non-Division Game 8-17 375-478 37.98 13-10-2 343-450-60 50.12
After a Conference Game 6-11 269-339 39.77 10-7-0 246-314-48 48.63
vs NL EAST Division Opponent 6-17 106-150 33.75 8-12-3 100-123-33 57.58
vs NL Conference Opponent 11-29 345-413 36.51 18-18-4 325-366-67 51.49
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 3-3 123-155 47.12 2-4-0 118-141-19 60.56
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 12-26 326-404 38.12 18-18-2 315-355-60 51.5
Coming off a 2 losing streak 1-3 76-88 35.67 3-0-1 74-84-6 26.58
Coming off 1 under 0-6 150-197 21.62 2-4-0 135-185-27 62.24
Coming off a lost 10-23 347-460 36.65 13-17-3 314-432-61 57.29
Coming off a Road Lost as a Underdog 6-12 204-294 37.15 10-6-2 198-261-39 47.18
During a day game 3-11 217-255 33.7 5-8-1 192-247-33 58.9
Coming off a 1 runs loss 1-5 87-114 29.98 3-2-1 74-112-15 50.11
Coming off a score 2 runs FOR in last game 0-1 78-103 21.55 0-1-0 78-93-10 77.2
Coming off a score 3 runs AGAINST in last game 1-2 74-87 39.65 2-1-0 67-82-12 44.18
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 2-6 224-265 35.41 4-2-2 215-232-42 42.62
vs ST LOUIS (since 1996) 26-36 17-25 41.21 27-30-5 17-21-4 53.95
Coming off a Lost over NL CENTRAL division opponent 2-2 71-87 47.47 1-3-0 61-83-14 66.32
Coming off a game that went under 4-4 147-172 48.04 4-4-0 149-144-26 49.58
Coming off a night game 9-20 399-505 37.59 16-12-1 382-452-70 48.53
Coming off a game 1 of a series 3-9 193-209 36.51 8-3-1 187-190-25 38.84
Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series 2-6 104-125 35.21 5-2-1 100-112-17 40.7
Last 30 days 5-10 197-248 38.8 6-8-1 182-231-32 56.54
Last 45 days 8-11 299-369 43.44 8-10-1 279-339-50 55.21
Last 60 days 12-18 396-489 42.38 16-13-1 371-447-67 49.74
Last 90 days 14-32 585-742 37.26 21-21-4 566-665-96 52.01
Vs. Right handed pitchers 11-26 443-579 36.54 16-17-4 437-516-69 52.83
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 11-26 461-565 37.33 19-14-4 426-527-73 48.86
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 9-19 259-330 38.06 10-16-2 226-323-40 60.19

 

ST LOUISTeam Name: ST LOUIS(Home Team)
Money Line: ST LOUIS -136 vs MIAMI +126
Spread Line: ST LOUIS -1.5 +150 —– MIAMI +1.5 -170
O/U: ST LOUIS 8 -115 —– MIAMI 8 -105
Pitchers: ST LOUIS – S Miller (R) vs MIAMI – A Heaney (L)
Game Date: Saturday,July 05 2014 1:15 PM
Last Game: win 2 – 3 vs Miami Marlins
Current Game: Miami Marlins
Next Game: Vs. MIAMI
Stats & Trends: ST LOUIS vs. MIAMI
PVI Rating on Winning: 54.02%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 60%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 40.82%
Streaks: 3 SU Win – 1 Under
Home Teams % of winning this game: 53%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 53%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.59
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.28

 

Home Team
(ST LOUIS)
When ST LOUIS is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When ST LOUIS is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 8 2-1 104-94 59.6 0-1-2 80-102-16 78.02
vs Non-Division opponent 15-11 410-449 52.71 7-16-3 355-444-60 62.57
vs Conference opponent 14-7 282-298 57.65 4-14-3 233-299-48 66.99
Playing in the month of July 1-0 32-27 77.12 0-1-0 26-27-6 75.47
Playing on Saturday 5-1 107-103 67.14 1-5-0 101-98-11 66.29
Played as home Favorite 23-18 491-458 53.92 17-20-4 421-459-69 53.11
After a Non-Division Game 15-10 396-446 53.52 6-17-2 351-435-56 64.63
After a Conference Game 13-8 302-304 55.87 4-14-3 244-315-47 67.07
vs NL EAST Division Opponent 10-4 113-131 58.87 1-10-3 99-113-32 72.11
vs NL Conference Opponent 23-14 360-389 55.11 14-19-4 305-377-67 56.43
Coming off vs NL EAST Division Opponent 9-4 119-132 58.32 1-10-2 112-113-26 70.57
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 22-15 362-394 53.67 14-19-4 310-377-69 56.23
Coming off a 3 winning streak 1-1 30-43 45.55 1-0-1 29-39-5 28.68
Coming off 1 under 4-7 167-210 40.33 8-3-0 152-199-26 41.99
Coming off a win 12-10 290-330 50.66 8-11-3 262-311-47 56.09
Coming off a Home Win as a Favorite 10-8 197-190 53.23 6-9-3 170-184-33 55.99
During a day game 11-6 226-246 56.3 8-8-1 192-247-33 53.13
Coming off a 1 runs win 2-3 88-113 41.89 1-4-0 79-105-17 68.54
Coming off a score 3 runs FOR in last game 3-1 76-97 59.47 2-2-0 70-85-18 52.42
Coming off a score 2 runs AGAINST in last game 6-1 90-92 67.58 1-5-1 65-107-10 72.77
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 5-5 287-300 49.45 1-7-2 251-289-47 70.51
vs MIAMI (since 1996) 36-26 23-23 54.03 27-30-5 21-21-4 51.32
Coming off a Win over NL EAST division opponent 6-2 53-45 64.54 1-5-2 52-36-10 62.12
Coming off a game that went under 7-4 145-172 54.69 5-5-1 147-151-19 50.34
Coming off a night game 13-12 439-502 49.33 10-14-1 409-465-67 55.77
Coming off a game 1 of a series 8-5 187-215 54.03 5-7-1 187-191-24 54.43
Coming off a win in game 1 of a series 5-1 101-104 66.3 1-5-0 92-99-14 67.58
Last 30 days 8-3 211-234 60.08 0-9-2 182-231-32 77.97
Last 45 days 12-10 318-350 51.08 6-14-2 279-339-50 62.43
Last 60 days 17-13 420-465 52.07 9-17-4 371-447-67 60.02
Last 90 days 24-18 625-702 52.12 17-21-4 566-665-96 54.64
Vs. Left handed pitchers 4-4 177-188 49.25 3-5-0 148-188-29 59.23
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 18-16 466-555 49.29 15-17-2 422-532-67 54.45
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 9-9 212-234 48.77 7-9-2 187-225-34 55.43

 

The bottom line is that if you want to get solid dog odds, it can’t be done in any kind of lock or manner of certainty. In this case, however, we feel the odds*risk justifies the value on return.

 

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

Definitely not what we want to see when betting chalk but if we’re trying to snipe a dog, this is effectively standard fare. It’s not called an “upset” because the underdog can easily be predicted to win.

MIAMI 41 – 45 47.67 52.33 49.29 0.48 2 – 5 28.57 71.43 38.78 0.34 5 – 9 35.71 64.29 37.76 0.37
ST LOUIS 47 – 40 54.02 45.98 50.69 0.52 4 – 3 57.14 42.86 40.82 0.49 8 – 6 57.14 42.86 36.74 0.47

 

ATS MATCHUPS

St Louis has an extremely dominant advantage as far as the Matchups go, but in this instance, we are calling for an upset due to the position of the split-stats, the value, and the market considerations. all of which point directly at Miami with clear chances to win here today.

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