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Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs. Montreal Alouettes – Preview, July 11th, 2014

Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 
O/U :48.5

22.09

Vs.

Date: 2014-07-11
Time: 18:05:00

Generated from 13 Previous Games

Montreal Alouettes
Montreal Alouettes
SIDE :3

21.14 = 43.23

 

Pick: Winnipeg Blue Bombers +3 (1/2 unit)

 

Finally, someone is correct to predict Winnipeg to cover the spread!

After having the entire roster gutted from top to bottom, it appears that whatever funk that had the Blue trapped into a losing mindstate is GONE!

While we’d like to be able to compare the Bombers’ performance with that of MTL’s first outing this season…which could only be described a “a QB unbecoming of a football player at any level, much less pro”… we still have to account for Smith’s home opener performance last game in their 24-9 wipeout of the BC Lions nonetheless.

This matchup will be very tight and is a head scrather to be sure.

With that said, our ATS Forecast is clear that the Bombers should not be the ones given points on the spread, yet, they sit at +3. This is a very positive indication that if the final score is to be within a field-goal, it should be Winnipeg to cover, not Montreal.

 

RAYMOND REPORT

The Raymond Report is taking into account the last 3 seasons.

Granted, MTL has had Calvillo side-lined for a large portion of that, but more important is the point that WPG has played absolutely awful for the better part of the last 3 seasons. For the Bombers to show any kind of an advantage on the Raymond Report, despite their dismal output these past few years, could mean that with a competent roster of pro-athletes in a winning mindset, they are poised for a hi-octane victory tonight.

That said, these stats were accrued with a completely different roster meaning that they can only be taken with a grain of salt.

 

Road Team
(WINNIPEG)
When WINNIPEG is a Road Team When Any CFL Team is a Road Team Differential % When WINNIPEG is a Road Team,the O/U When Any CFL Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Last 3 season Last 3 season Differential % Last 3 season Last 3 season Differential %
ATS ATS O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 50.50 (since 1996) 6-0-0 5-3-1 0.78 1-5-0 4-5-0 0.69
vs Division opponent 11-5-0 76-58-3 0.62 5-11-0 60-76-1 0.62
vs Conference opponent (since 1996) 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0
Playing in the month of July (since 1996) 22-15-1 29-27-0 0.55 10-25-3 27-28-1 0.61
Playing on Friday (since 1996) 19-21-3 43-30-0 0.52 22-21-0 43-30-0 0.45
Played as Road Underdog 13-15-1 128-112-4 0.49 10-19-0 113-129-2 0.59
After a Division Game 4-9-1 67-56-4 0.41 6-8-0 58-67-2 0.55
After a Conference Game 4-9-1 67-56-4 0.41 6-8-0 58-67-2 0.55
Before a Non-Division Game 4-6-0 50-47-0 0.46 4-6-0 48-49-0 0.55
Before a Non-Conference Game 4-6-0 50-47-0 0.46 4-6-0 48-49-0 0.55
vs Eastern Conference Opponent 13-15-1 65-56-2 0.49 10-19-0 59-64-0 0.59
Coming off a 2 winning streak (since 1996) 8-8-1 10-10-1 0.47 10-6-1 15-5-1 0.31
Coming off 2 over (since 1996) 11-15-1 13-10-0 0.49 11-14-2 10-13-0 0.56
Coming off a win (since 1996) 30-46-3 56-56-2 0.44 32-44-3 55-57-2 0.54
Coming off a Home Win as a Favorite (since 1996) 14-18-1 33-32-2 0.46 13-19-1 34-32-1 0.54
With 7 days off (since 1996) 10-18-1 10-23-1 0.32 11-18-0 14-20-0 0.6
Coming off a 2 home stand (since 1996) 17-17-1 25-19-3 0.51 13-20-2 18-28-1 0.61
Before Playing EDMONTON (since 1996) 5-9-1 14-13-1 0.42 9-6-0 11-16-1 0.5
After Playing OTTAWA (since 1996) 2-3-0 0-0-0 0.2 3-2-0 0-0-0 0.2
Coming off a 8 points win (since 1996) 2-1-0 3-2-0 0.63 1-2-0 1-4-0 0.73
Coming off a score 36 points FOR in last game (since 1996) 1-2-0 4-0-0 0.67 2-1-0 2-2-0 0.42
Coming off a score 28 points AGAINST in last game (since 1996) 0-1-0 0-1-0 0 0-1-0 1-0-0 0.5
vs MONTREAL (since 1996) 15-13-1 19-12-0 0.57 13-14-2 10-21-0 0.6
Last 30 days (since 1996) 0-0-0 2-6-0 0.13 0-0-0 3-5-0 0.31
Last 45 days (since 1996) 0-0-0 2-6-0 0.13 0-0-0 3-5-0 0.31
Last 60 days (since 1996) 0-0-0 2-6-0 0.13 0-0-0 3-5-0 0.31
Last 90 days (since 1996) 0-0-0 2-6-0 0.13 0-0-0 3-5-0 0.31
Coming off a 2 ATS Win (since 1996) 10-13-0 9-13-1 0.41 8-12-3 17-5-1 0.41
Coming off a Home ATS win (since 1996) 25-33-0 4-4-0 0.47 27-29-2 4-4-0 0.51
During week 3 (since 1996) 4-4-0 5-7-0 0.46 2-6-0 5-7-0 0.67
Coming off Back to Back SU Wins (since 1996) 12-13-2 27-27-2 0.46 11-14-2 30-24-2 0.5
Coming off Back to Back SU Home Wins (since 1996) 7-5-0 10-8-2 0.54 4-7-1 10-9-1 0.56
TEAM: WINNIPEG
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 40.5 24.5
Home Games Avg 40.5 24.5
Road Games Avg N/A N/A
Last 3 Games Avg N/A N/A
Last 5 Games Avg N/A N/A
Last 10 Games Avg N/A N/A
vs. Division Games Avg 40.5 24.5
vs. Conference Games Avg N/A N/A
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 40.5 24.5
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg N/A N/A
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 45 21
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 36 28
After a Win Games Avg 36 28
After a Lost Games Avg N/A N/A
After a SU Road Win Games Avg N/A N/A
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg N/A N/A
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 36 28
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg N/A N/A
After an Over Games Avg 36 28
After an Under Games Avg N/A N/A
After a Push Games Avg N/A N/A
39 25.67
MONTREALTeam Name: MONTREAL(Home Team)
Line: MONTREAL -2.5 —– WINNIPEG +2.5
O/U: MONTREAL 49 (UNDER -110) —– WINNIPEG 49 (OVER -110)
Game Date: Friday , July 11 2014 6:05 PM
Last Game: win 9 – 24 vs British Columbia Lions
Current Game: Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Next Game: At BRITISH COLUMBIA
Stats & Trends: MONTREAL vs. WINNIPEG
PVI Rating on Winning: 50%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 0%
Home Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 50%
Streaks: 1 SU Win – 1 ATS Win – 2 Under
Home Teams % covering the spread: 44%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 57%
Home Teams Predicted Points For: 18.67
Home Teams Predicted Points Against: 15.67
Home Team
(MONTREAL)
When MONTREAL is a Home Team When Any CFL Team is a Home Team Differential % When MONTREAL is a Home Team,the O/U When Any CFL Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Last 3 season Last 3 season Differential % Last 3 season Last 3 season Differential %
ATS ATS O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 50.50 (since 1996) 7-5-0 3-5-1 0.46 7-5-0 4-5-0 0.49
vs Division opponent 5-13-0 58-76-3 0.35 4-14-0 60-76-1 0.67
vs Conference opponent 5-13-0 58-76-3 0.35 4-14-0 60-76-1 0.67
Playing in the month of July (since 1996) 19-20-1 27-29-0 0.48 20-19-1 27-28-1 0.5
Playing on Friday (since 1996) 16-14-1 30-43-0 0.46 15-16-0 43-30-0 0.46
Played as Home Favorite 12-19-0 112-128-4 0.42 10-21-0 113-129-2 0.61
After a Non-Division Game 7-5-0 49-50-1 0.54 5-7-0 50-50-0 0.54
After a Non-Conference Game 7-5-0 49-50-1 0.54 5-7-0 50-50-0 0.54
Before a Non-Division Game 5-9-0 46-52-0 0.41 6-8-0 47-51-0 0.55
Before a Non-Conference Game 5-9-0 46-52-0 0.41 6-8-0 47-51-0 0.55
vs Eastern Division Opponent 12-19-0 16-32-1 0.36 10-21-0 17-32-0 0.67
vs Eastern Conference Opponent 12-19-0 52-69-1 0.41 10-21-0 56-65-1 0.61
Coming off a 1 winning streak (since 1996) 17-22-0 24-32-0 0.43 15-23-1 23-33-0 0.6
Coming off 2 under (since 1996) 9-10-0 14-14-1 0.48 9-10-0 13-16-0 0.54
Coming off a win 4-12-0 52-61-2 0.35 4-12-0 48-66-1 0.66
Coming off a Home Win as a Underdog (since 1996) 0-0-0 3-5-0 0.19 0-0-0 5-3-0 0.19
With 6 days off (since 1996) 20-15-1 34-27-0 0.56 14-22-0 31-30-0 0.55
Coming off a 1 home stand 4-8-0 26-33-1 0.38 3-9-0 28-32-0 0.64
Before Playing BRITISH COLUMBIA (since 1996) 11-6-1 17-12-1 0.59 12-6-0 17-12-1 0.37
After Playing BRITISH COLUMBIA (since 1996) 9-7-0 6-8-0 0.5 7-9-0 8-6-0 0.5
Coming off a 15 points win (since 1996) 1-0-0 1-3-0 0.63 0-0-1 2-2-0 0.25
Scored 24 points FOR in last game (since 1996) 2-1-0 0-2-0 0.33 0-2-1 0-2-0 1
Coming off a score 9 points AGAINST in last game (since 1996) 0-0-0 1-0-0 0.5 0-0-0 0-1-0 0.5
vs WINNIPEG (since 1996) 13-15-1 15-13-1 0.48 13-14-2 10-19-0 0.59
Last 30 days (since 1996) 1-0-0 6-2-0 0.88 0-1-0 3-5-0 0.81
Last 45 days (since 1996) 1-0-0 6-2-0 0.88 0-1-0 3-5-0 0.81
Last 60 days (since 1996) 1-0-0 6-2-0 0.88 0-1-0 3-5-0 0.81
Last 90 days (since 1996) 1-0-0 6-2-0 0.88 0-1-0 3-5-0 0.81
Coming off a 1 ATS Win 5-5-0 31-39-1 0.47 3-7-0 31-39-1 0.63
Coming off a Home ATS win (since 1996) 10-18-0 4-14-2 0.28 10-18-0 10-10-0 0.57
During week 3 (since 1996) 2-7-1 7-5-0 0.39 5-5-0 5-7-0 0.54

 

 

ATS MATCHUP

According to matchups, MTL has won SU in this position with overwhelming dominance and force.

To give just 1 example of the 5 categories (that all read similar in terms of MTL to win SU):

When WINNIPEG team played as a Road team -Playing on Friday -During Week 1 to 4 5-11-0
When WINNIPEG team played as a Road team -Total is between 49.5 to 51 -After a conference game 3-10-0
When WINNIPEG team played as Road team as a Underdog -Playing on Friday -After a division game 5-10-0
20 Random Team Trends
MONTREAL 20 Random Team Trends
ATS SU O/U
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push Over-Under-Push
Click on description to see Predictions on next game Click on records Click on records Click on records
11-5-0
16-4-1
16-4-1
16-8-0
17-8-0
14-6-1
27-9-0
14-2-0
8-2-0
12-1-0
19-9-0

 

 

So in terms of winning SU, MTL completely obliterates the Bombers historically.

Again, that’s a ‘grain of salt’ consideration due to the complete transformation of the 2014 Bomber lineup.

We like the Bombers chances to cover, but only barely.

For this reason, a 1/2 unit play would be most appropriate.

Expect to see more of the same from the Bombers, but count on Troy Smith to have a chance of showing up, but also a chance of showing some shakiness as well as he showed us in game #1.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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