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Colorado Rockies (De La Rosa) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Liriano) – Preview – July 18th, 2014

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Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 
O/U :7.5

3.74

Vs.

Date: 2014-07-18
Time: 18:05:00

Generated from 66 Previous Games

Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
SIDE :-151

3.97 = 7.71

 

PITTSBURGH -151 (1/2 unit)

COL@PIT UNDER 7.5 (optional)

 

Today’s theme is hinged on “when something seems too good to be true, it probably is.”
Today’s theme focuses on why we should respect the fact that sharps aren’t pounding the Colorado line.

 

PITCHING:

Colorado’s De La Rosa:

  • 4.56 ERA all season.
  • 5.87 ERA on the road.
  • 3.50 ERA Last 3 Games.

 

Pittsburgh’s Liriano:

  • 4.72 ERA all season.
  • 5.97 ERA at home.
  • 5.25 ERA Last 3 Games.

 

History:

  • De La Rosa is 3-3 vs PIT with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.583 WHIP.
  • Liriano is 1-2 vs COL with a 7.16 ERA and a 1.776 WHIP.
  • Colorado is 6-6 vs Pittsburgh Last 3 Seasons.

Summary: These pitchers are identical aside from the fact that De La Rosa is stepping up these past 3 games, and that Liriano has a rotten track record vs Colorado. These considerations should give Colorado a strong edge on the bump tonight.

 

BULLPEN:

  • Colorado are 4.63 ERA all season.
  • Colorado are 3.84 ERA on the road.
  • Pittsburgh are 3.52 ERA all season.
  • Pittsburgh are 3.19 ERA at home.

Summary: Pittsburgh’s bullpen with a slight edge.

 

HITTING:

  • Colorado hits 4.3 RPG vs LHP.
  • Pittsburgh hits 3.7 RPG vs LHP.
  • Colorado is hitting 3.6 L7G.
  • Pittsburgh is hitting 4.1 L7G.

 

Summary: So again, all in all this is about evenish with Colorado having perhaps a slight edge.

 

So how does this make sense?

How could the books stay in business by pricing these kinds of stats at Colorado +141?

Why isn’t the sharp money pounding the Colorado line if it’s such a great deal? They are, after all, arguably, the hardest hitting team in the league!

If we appreciate the term, “follow the money”, then Pittsburgh is the only and obvious bet.

 

RAYMOND REPORT

 

COLORADOTeam Name: COLORADO(Road Team)
Money Line: COLORADO +135 vs PITTSBURGH -145
Spread Line: COLORADO +1.5 -165 —– PITTSBURGH -1.5 +145
O/U: COLORADO 7.5 +105 —– PITTSBURGH 7.5 -125
Pitchers: COLORADO – J De La Rosa (L) vs PITTSBURGH – F Liriano (L)
Game Date: Friday,July 18 2014 6:05 PM
Last Game: lost 13 – 5 vs Minnesota Twins
Current Game: Pittsburgh Pirates
Next Game: At PITTSBURGH
Stats & Trends: COLORADO vs. PITTSBURGH
PVI Rating on Winning: 42.11%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 44.71%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 51.02%
Streaks: 2 SU Lost – 2 Over
Road Teams % of winning this game: 41%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 47%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 4.73
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 5.39
Road Team
(COLORADO)
When COLORADO is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When COLORADO is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 5-5 173-191 48.77 6-4-0 190-174-0 43.9
vs Non-Division opponent 6-21 408-526 32.95 13-10-4 389-480-65 49.36
vs Conference opponent 5-15 281-346 34.91 10-6-4 255-323-49 46.69
Playing in the month of July 0-2 84-121 20.49 0-1-1 93-100-12 75.91
Playing on Friday 2-5 100-141 35.03 3-3-1 112-107-22 49.43
Played as road Underdog 15-27 447-640 38.42 22-15-5 470-544-73 47.1
After a Non-Division Game 7-20 411-525 34.92 14-9-4 381-489-66 47.67
After a Non-Conference Game 1-6 127-170 28.53 4-2-1 126-152-19 44.01
vs NL WEST Division Opponent 10-9 130-119 52.42 10-5-4 115-120-14 42.2
vs NL Conference Opponent 15-24 377-463 41.67 20-11-8 366-404-70 43.98
Coming off vs AL CENTRAL Division Opponent 0-4 118-140 22.87 3-1-0 120-131-7 38.6
Coming off vs American Conference Opponent 1-6 325-403 29.47 4-2-1 308-377-43 44.19
Coming off a 2 losing streak 4-5 85-94 45.97 5-4-0 80-93-6 49.1
Coming off 2 over 2-6 72-89 34.86 5-3-0 76-76-9 43.75
Coming off a lost 10-18 386-510 39.4 12-11-5 351-480-65 52.8
Coming off a Home Lost as a Favorite 1-1 36-44 47.5 1-1-0 30-46-4 55.27
With 4 days off (since 1996) 2-2 0-0 25 1-3-0 0-0-0 37.5
During a night game 10-23 448-573 37.09 15-11-7 450-498-73 47.42
Coming off a 10 home stand 1-0 13-11 77.09 1-0-0 12-12-0 25
Coming off a 8 runs loss (since 1996) 14-21 6-9 40 13-18-4 6-7-2 55.96
Coming off a score 5 runs FOR in last game 2-2 67-73 48.93 2-1-1 62-69-9 43
Coming off a score 13 runs AGAINST in last game (since 1996) 6-6 2-1 58.34 5-7-0 1-2-0 62.5
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 4-13 254-304 34.53 8-6-3 246-268-44 47.5
vs PITTSBURGH (since 1996) 29-40 20-29 41.43 35-28-6 23-21-5 46.09
Coming off a Lost over AL Central division opponent 0-3 59-83 20.78 2-1-0 59-80-3 45.44
Coming off a day game 5-10 242-305 38.79 11-3-1 239-276-32 37.51
Last 30 days 1-7 175-227 28.02 5-2-1 164-210-28 42.36
Last 45 days 4-9 279-344 37.78 8-3-2 264-319-40 41
Last 60 days 6-16 373-462 35.97 12-7-3 359-420-56 45.38
Last 90 days 12-23 569-715 39.3 17-11-7 546-640-98 46.63
Vs. Left handed pitchers 6-7 197-229 46.2 7-4-2 182-212-32 45.09
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 11-17 511-629 42.06 16-7-5 477-584-79 42.74
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 7-14 285-359 38.79 10-8-3 248-353-43 51.59

 

PITTSBURGHTeam Name: PITTSBURGH(Home Team)
Money Line: PITTSBURGH -145 vs COLORADO +135
Spread Line: PITTSBURGH -1.5 +145 —– COLORADO +1.5 -165
O/U: PITTSBURGH 7.5 -125 —– COLORADO 7.5 +105
Pitchers: PITTSBURGH – F Liriano (L) vs COLORADO – J De La Rosa (L)
Game Date: Friday,July 18 2014 6:05 PM
Last Game: lost 3 – 6 vs Cincinnati Reds
Current Game: Colorado Rockies
Next Game: Vs. COLORADO
Stats & Trends: PITTSBURGH vs. COLORADO
PVI Rating on Winning: 51.06%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 50.56%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 71.43%
Streaks: 1 SU Lost – 4 Over
Home Teams % of winning this game: 55%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 55%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 4.09
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 4.06

 

Home Team
(PITTSBURGH)
When PITTSBURGH is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When PITTSBURGH is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 13-8 179-185 55.54 14-7-0 190-174-0 40.57
vs Non-Division opponent 16-6 441-493 59.98 10-9-3 389-480-65 51.31
vs Conference opponent 13-4 302-325 62.32 5-9-3 255-323-49 60.09
Playing in the month of July 5-1 101-104 66.3 3-3-0 93-100-12 50.91
Playing on Friday 7-1 121-120 68.86 6-1-1 112-107-22 31.58
Played as home Favorite 22-14 544-506 56.46 16-15-5 470-509-71 50.19
After a Division Game 10-13 288-327 45.16 10-11-2 274-297-44 52.2
After a Conference Game 11-3 324-332 63.98 4-7-3 268-340-48 59.78
vs NL WEST Division Opponent 4-2 122-114 59.18 2-3-1 94-124-18 58.44
vs NL Conference Opponent 26-18 401-428 53.73 18-21-5 344-415-70 54.27
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 10-13 156-156 46.74 10-11-2 129-159-24 53.8
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 23-17 401-434 52.76 17-18-5 350-414-71 52.81
Coming off 4 over 1-1 10-18 42.86 1-1-0 14-11-3 47
Coming off a lost 15-8 408-458 56.17 12-11-0 381-428-57 50.37
Coming off a Road Lost as a Underdog 4-1 41-47 63.3 4-1-0 42-38-8 33.75
With 4 days off (since 1996) 3-2 0-0 30 2-2-1 0-0-0 25
During a night game 22-12 472-549 55.47 19-12-3 450-498-73 45.62
Coming off a 7 road trip 1-1 25-12 58.79 2-0-0 17-19-1 26.39
Coming off a 3 runs loss 0-2 45-53 22.96 0-2-0 44-46-8 75.56
Coming off a score 3 runs FOR in last game 5-4 83-106 49.74 3-4-2 83-88-18 54.3
Coming off a score 6 runs AGAINST in last game 1-2 73-50 46.34 2-1-0 55-60-8 42.75
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 16-11 315-329 54.09 12-13-2 279-318-47 52.64
vs COLORADO (since 1996) 40-29 30-16 61.6 35-28-6 23-15-8 41.96
Coming off a Lost over NL CENTRAL division opponent 7-6 91-80 53.54 6-7-0 74-86-11 53.8
Coming off a day game 11-4 241-264 60.53 10-4-1 210-260-35 41.95
Last 30 days 9-3 186-216 60.64 5-7-0 164-210-28 57.24
Last 45 days 13-7 291-332 55.86 10-10-0 264-319-40 52.36
Last 60 days 17-9 396-439 56.41 12-12-2 359-420-56 51.96
Last 90 days 24-17 606-678 52.87 20-18-3 546-640-98 50.67
Vs. Left handed pitchers 1-3 197-207 36.88 2-2-0 165-207-32 52.83
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 18-16 512-607 49.35 18-12-4 467-581-71 47.72
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 11-8 287-352 51.4 12-7-0 267-330-42 46.06

 

Looking at stats of these teams, looking at the line, and then looking at the Raymond Report, it really makes me wonder if the books and sharps aren’t factoring the Raymond Report (or something comparable) into their decisions as well…

 

ATS MATCHUPS

Historical stats to SUPPORT the Pittsburgh pick in this position:

When PITTSBURGH played as Home Team- With a spread between 140 and 160 6-4-0
When PITTSBURGH played as Home or Away Team- Vs NL West Division 10-5-0
When PITTSBURGH played as Home or Away Team- With Total between 7.5 and 8.0 21-14-0
When PITTSBURGH team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Coming off vs. National League opponent – Vs NL WEST opponent – Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a Road loss 10-6-0
When PITTSBURGH team played as a Home team – After a conference game – During a night game – Coming off a 1 game loss – Coming off a 3 run lost 14-4-0
When PITTSBURGH team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Vs Non Division Opponent 15-8-0
When PITTSBURGH team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite – Total is 7.5 – During a night game 11-4-0
When PITTSBURGH team Played as home team as a Favorite – Playing on Friday – During the month of July 14-7-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Vs NL WEST opponent – Before a non division game – Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog – Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 20-10-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a -140 to -160 Home Favorite – Last 2 years – Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a 1 game loss – Coming off a Loss vs. NL CENTRAL opponent 20-9-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 2 years – 1st game of a series – Playing on Friday – Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a 1 game loss – Allowed 6 runs or more AGAINST in their last game 32-17-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – 1st game of a series – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a 1 game loss – Coming off a day game – Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 286-180-0

 

 

When COLORADO played as Road Team- With a spread between 120 and 140 10-20-0
When COLORADO played as Road Team- Vs NL Central Division 10-20-0
When COLORADO played as Road Underdog- in the month of July 15-35-0
When COLORADO played as Underdog- in the month of July 12-28-0
When COLORADO team played as a Road team – After a non division game – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Scored 5 or more runs FOR in their last game – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 19-36-0
When COLORADO team played as a Road team – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Before a conference game – Coming off a Home loss – Coming off a Home loss as a Favorite 3-8-0
When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – During a night game – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Coming off a Home loss – Coming off a Home loss as a Favorite 6-9-0
When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Coming off a 2 game losing streak – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 1-10-0
When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – During a night game – Vs NL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a 2 game losing streak – Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 4-11-0
When COLORADO team played as a road team – During the month of July – During a night game 53-102-0
When COLORADO team Played as road team as a Underdog – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Before a conference game 46-98-0
When COLORADO team played as a 120 to 140 road Underdog – Vs. Left handed pitchers – During a night game 20-44-0
When COLORADO team played as a 120 to 140 road Underdog – During a night game – Vs. Left handed pitchers 20-44-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a 120 to 140 Road Underdog – Coming off vs. American League opponent – Vs Conference Opponent – Coming off a 2 game losing streak – Coming off a Home loss as a Favorite 7-18-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Road team as a Underdog – With 4 day off – During a night game – 1st game of a series – Coming off a Home loss as a Favorite 6-13-0
When COLORADO Played as road team as a Underdog – During Last 3 Years – With 2 Over or Less – Lost Last Game by 8 Runs or Less – With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G 5 – 15 – 0
When COLORADO played as a road team – During Last 2 Years – With SU Record of 3 Win 4 Lost in L7G 15 – 33 – 0

 

Historical stats to THREATEN the Pittsburgh pick in this position:

When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs NL Conference – During a night game – Coming off a 2 game losing streak – Coming off a 2 game over 6-4-0

 

Again, Pittsburgh is showing up surprisingly well!

 

What about the OVER and UNDER?

Same thing. It’s been my experience that when the stats clearly indicate that a game should go O/U, and the total is set surprisingly high/low, that in this position, taking advantage of what looks like a “steal” will end up biting you. It’s for this reason that we call a bluff on the 7.5 total.

It is simply too good to be true.

Look at it:

  • the combined pitching is very near 10.00ERA.
  • the history of the pitchers vs each others’ teams is not great
  • one of the pitchers having a downright dismal experience vs the other team historically
  • with COL hitting in 1st place and PIT hitting in 9th (.OPS), we got 2 top 10 hitting teams here.

What about these facts says the total makes sense at “7.5”?
So again, if it’s such a great deal, then why haven’t the sharp money driven up that total?

 

There are a million and one ideas and angles to bet on. Today’s consideration goes to the (lack of) sharp money where we’d otherwise expect to see it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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