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Cincinnati Reds (Simon) vs. New York Yankees (McCarthy) – Preview – July 19th, 2014

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ATS FORECAST

Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 
O/U :7.5

3.95

Vs.

Date: 2014-07-19
Time: 12:05:00

Generated from 50 Previous Games

New York Yankees
New York Yankees
SIDE :-135

3.82 = 7.77

 

NEW YORK YANKEES -135 (1/2 unit)

 

Our “Too Good To Be True” considerations went 2 – 0 yesterday and the same theme is obviously prevalent here as well.

Let’s look:

 

PITCHING

Cincinnati’s Simon:

  • 2.70 ERA all season.
  • 2.37 ERA on the road.
  • 1.71 ERA last 3 games.

 

New York’s McCarthy:

  • 4.80 ERA all season.
  • 5.37 ERA at home.
  • 1.86 ERA last 3 games.

 

HISTORY

 

  • Simon is 0-2 vs NYY pitching 6.19 ERA with a 1.500 WHIP.
  • McCarthy is 0-2 vs CIN pitching 16.22 ERA with a 2.853WHIP.

 

BULLPEN

  • Cincinnati’s pen is 3.82 ERA all season and 4.18 on the road.
  • New York’s pen is 3.85 ERA all season and 4.65 at home.

 

HITTING

Cincinnati is hitting:

  • 4.0 RPG all season.
  • 3.8 on the road.
  • 3.8 vs RH starters.
  • 4.7 RPG L7G.

 

New York is hitting:

  • 4.0 RPG all season.
  • 3.6 RPG at home.
  • 3.9 RPG vs RH starters.
  • 3.0 RPG L7G.

 

 

SUMMARY

At the end of the day, Cincinnati has the crystal clear edge in pitching and a small edge at the plate. Bullpens are even. These are obvious statistical considerations that will sway a large part of the market. These are the considerations that have the market showing Cincinnati with the lion’s share 70%. After capping several thousand MLB games, these stats should value Cincinnati as a -130 to -140 chalk line. Yet here we see them as at +125?

When we look at the population of the 2 cities and see that NYY has a huge betting bias (people betting their home team no matter what), we could definitely attribute some value to this point. However, when we find the Cincinnati betting action at 70% of the market…we see that indeed bettors are avoiding NYY. So population bias can only account for so much.

Where is the sharp money? If Cincinnati is such a steal, then why is the line sitting in dog odds? Why don’t the sharps pound that line back into the chalk?
Could it be that they’re too busy jumping on the Yankee line?

To validate the point, we can see that an hour ago, the NYY line was steamed from -130 to -140.

Follow the money. There is a reason that 70% of the time that we think we found a “steal” we get caught with our hand in the cookie jar. It leaves us slack-jawed, reviewing the stats post-loss, wondering where things could possibly have gone wrong. When something looks too good to be true, leave it well alone. It’s worth noting that we have spreadsheets proving the exact same phenomenon in NHL. Also, we should add, this is a huge piece of why it’s tough to pick 8 straight dogs at streakcatcher.com

 

ATS RAYMOND REPORT

Positionally speaking, the Raymond Report shows both teams with effectively even matched.

 

CINCINNATITeam Name: CINCINNATI(Road Team)
Money Line: CINCINNATI +114 vs NY YANKEES -124
Spread Line: CINCINNATI +1.5 -180 —– NY YANKEES -1.5 +160
O/U: CINCINNATI 8 -120 —– NY YANKEES 8 +100
Pitchers: CINCINNATI – A Simon (R) vs NY YANKEES – B McCarthy (R)
Game Date: Saturday,July 19 2014 12:05 PM
Last Game: lost 3 – 4 vs New York Yankees
Current Game: New York Yankees
Next Game: At NY YANKEES
Stats & Trends: CINCINNATI vs. NY YANKEES
PVI Rating on Winning: 54.17%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 52.13%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 36.74%
Streaks: 1 SU Lost – 1 Under
Road Teams % of winning this game: 47%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 53%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 4.02
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.86
Road Team
(CINCINNATI)
When CINCINNATI is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When CINCINNATI is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 8 3-1 96-125 59.22 1-3-0 92-113-16 65.06
vs Non-Division opponent 12-17 413-533 42.52 12-16-1 395-486-65 56.15
vs Non-Conference opponent 0-3 127-182 20.55 0-3-0 134-159-16 77.14
Playing in the month of July 0-3 90-130 20.46 1-2-0 101-107-12 59.06
Playing on Saturday 2-5 110-133 36.92 4-3-0 119-113-11 45.79
Played as road Underdog 18-18 450-649 45.48 16-20-0 476-550-73 54.59
After a Non-Division Game 13-13 411-528 46.89 12-14-0 382-491-66 55.05
After a Non-Conference Game 1-1 127-172 46.24 0-2-0 126-154-19 77.5
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 12-7 135-178 53.15 10-9-0 139-152-22 49.8
vs NL Conference Opponent 24-21 380-467 49.1 22-22-1 370-407-70 51.19
Coming off vs AL EAST Division Opponent 1-1 113-136 47.69 0-2-0 103-131-15 77.99
Coming off vs American Conference Opponent 1-1 328-408 47.29 0-2-0 312-381-43 77.49
Coming off 1 under 6-7 171-222 44.83 4-9-0 158-205-30 62.85
Coming off a lost 10-11 388-515 45.3 10-10-1 354-484-65 53.88
Coming off a Road Lost as a Underdog 7-8 224-326 43.7 7-8-0 219-290-41 55.15
During a day game 9-7 242-292 50.79 6-10-0 221-279-34 59.15
Coming off a 1 runs loss 1-6 97-130 28.51 3-3-1 90-122-15 53.78
Coming off a score 3 runs FOR in last game 5-6 96-103 46.85 6-5-0 94-95-10 47.86
Coming off a score 4 runs AGAINST in last game 4-6 97-94 45.4 6-4-0 85-97-9 46.65
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 9-5 257-308 54.89 9-5-0 248-273-44 44.06
vs NY YANKEES (since 1996) 4-3 23-22 54.13 1-6-0 15-28-2 75.42
Coming off a Lost over AL EAST division opponent 0-1 62-77 22.3 0-1-0 55-80-4 79.63
Coming off a game that went under 7-7 169-188 48.67 6-7-1 167-164-26 51.7
Coming off a night game 16-15 440-553 47.96 13-18-0 425-494-74 55.91
Coming off a game 1 of a series 4-11 216-225 37.83 11-4-0 205-208-28 38.52
Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series 2-6 121-133 36.32 5-3-0 110-125-19 45.35
Last 30 days 6-6 175-226 46.82 4-8-0 166-208-27 61.14
Last 45 days 10-7 276-345 51.63 8-9-0 266-316-39 53.62
Last 60 days 15-11 376-469 51.1 12-14-0 363-426-56 53.92
Last 90 days 21-19 571-713 48.49 18-22-0 548-640-96 54.44
Vs. Right handed pitchers 20-18 499-643 48.17 17-20-1 497-570-75 53.74
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 21-23 513-637 46.17 18-25-1 481-590-79 56.62
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 8-8 286-364 47 7-8-1 251-356-43 55.99

 

NY YANKEESTeam Name: NY YANKEES(Home Team)
Money Line: NY YANKEES -124 vs CINCINNATI +114
Spread Line: NY YANKEES -1.5 +160 —– CINCINNATI +1.5 -180
O/U: NY YANKEES 8 +100 —– CINCINNATI 8 -120
Pitchers: NY YANKEES – B McCarthy (R) vs CINCINNATI – A Simon (R)
Game Date: Saturday,July 19 2014 12:05 PM
Last Game: win 3 – 4 vs Cincinnati Reds
Current Game: Cincinnati Reds
Next Game: Vs. CINCINNATI
Stats & Trends: NY YANKEES vs. CINCINNATI
PVI Rating on Winning: 50.53%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 55.91%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 63.26%
Streaks: 1 SU Win – 4 Under
Home Teams % of winning this game: 45%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 45%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.77
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 4.12

 

Home Team
(NY YANKEES)
When NY YANKEES is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When NY YANKEES is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 8 4-9 114-107 41.18 5-7-1 92-113-16 56.73
vs Non-Division opponent 9-14 448-498 43.25 7-16-0 395-486-65 62.37
vs Non-Conference opponent 5-5 141-168 47.82 2-8-0 134-159-16 67.14
Playing in the month of July 1-2 110-110 41.67 0-2-1 101-107-12 75.72
Playing on Saturday 5-2 121-122 60.61 2-5-0 119-113-11 60.07
Played as home Favorite 18-17 553-509 51.75 11-23-1 476-515-71 59.81
After a Non-Division Game 9-13 435-492 43.92 7-15-0 393-472-62 61.38
After a Non-Conference Game 4-5 133-175 43.81 2-7-0 135-154-19 65.54
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 5-3 156-163 55.7 0-8-0 136-164-19 77.34
vs NL Conference Opponent 5-5 407-431 49.29 2-8-0 348-420-70 67.35
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 4-3 160-156 53.89 1-6-0 131-161-24 70.43
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 4-5 406-438 46.27 2-7-0 356-417-71 65.87
Coming off 4 under 1-1 27-21 53.13 0-2-0 18-28-2 80.44
Coming off a win 8-12 324-369 43.38 6-14-0 292-351-50 62.3
Coming off a Home Win as a Favorite 5-9 222-213 43.37 5-9-0 189-211-35 58.52
During a day game 9-7 258-276 52.28 4-10-2 221-279-34 63.62
Coming off a 1 runs win 1-3 98-126 34.38 1-3-0 92-115-17 65.28
Coming off a score 4 runs FOR in last game 3-2 85-98 53.23 1-4-0 87-85-11 64.71
Coming off a score 3 runs AGAINST in last game 4-2 95-109 56.62 1-5-0 100-95-9 66.03
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 5-2 253-295 58.8 2-4-1 235-278-35 60.43
vs CINCINNATI (since 1996) 3-4 24-24 46.43 1-6-0 22-25-1 69.45
Coming off a Win over NL CENTRAL division opponent 1-2 65-76 39.72 0-3-0 55-73-13 78.52
Coming off a night game 14-18 481-554 45.11 10-21-1 454-510-71 60.32
Coming off a game 1 of a series 7-8 203-239 46.3 5-10-0 205-209-28 58.58
Coming off a win in game 1 of a series 1-4 110-120 33.92 2-3-0 102-111-17 56.06
Last 30 days 4-7 187-214 41.5 2-7-2 166-208-27 66.7
Last 45 days 7-8 294-327 47.01 4-9-2 266-316-39 61.77
Last 60 days 8-12 403-442 43.85 6-12-2 363-426-56 60.33
Last 90 days 13-22 604-680 42.09 12-21-2 548-640-96 58.76
Vs. Right handed pitchers 14-16 541-623 46.58 11-17-2 513-576-75 56.8
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 13-19 520-610 43.33 9-22-1 473-586-71 63.16
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 6-10 238-266 42.36 4-12-0 211-256-37 64.91

 

 

 

ATS MATCHUPS

The ATS Matchups show where the Yankees are positionally dominant.

Historical stats to SUPPORT the Yankee’s pick:

When NY YANKEES played as Favourite- With a spread between 120 and 140 9-4-2
When NY YANKEES played as Home Favourite- Vs NL Central Division 19-4-2
When NY YANKEES played as Home or Away Team- Vs NL Central Division 19-9-2
When NY YANKEES team Played as Home team as a Favorite – After a non division game – During a day game – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Coming off a Home win 128-71-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a Home team – Playing on Saturday – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a 1 game win – Coming off a Home win 20-11-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a Home team – Vs. Right handed pitchers – During a day game – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Allowed 3 runs AGAINST in their last game 25-15-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a Home team – Vs. Right handed pitchers – During a day game – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Coming off a Home win 140-93-0
When NY YANKEES team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 3 years – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Coming off a 1 game win 22-7-0
When NY YANKEES team Played as Home team as a Favorite – During a day game – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a Home win 13-1-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a Home team – During a day game – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent 13-2-0
When NY YANKEES team Played as home team as a Favorite – During the month of July – During a day game 70-33-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a home team – After a non division game – During a day game 236-127-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a -120 to -140 home Favorite – During a day game – During the month of July 11-7-0
When NY YANKEES team Played as home team as a Favorite – Last 2 years – Playing on Saturday 18-12-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a home team – During the month of July – During a day game 74-38-0
When NY YANKEES team Played as home team as a Favorite – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Vs NL CENTRAL opponent 23-7-0
When NY YANKEES team Played as home team as a Favorite – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Before a non division game 364-213-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a home team – Vs NL Conference – Playing on Saturday 22-14-0
When NY YANKEES team Played as home team as a Favorite – After a non division game – During a day game 232-117-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a -120 to -140 home Favorite – During the month of July – Vs Non Division Opponent 13-5-0
When NY YANKEES team Played as home team as a Favorite – Vs Non Conference Opponent – Before a non division game 101-50-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a Home team – Last 5 years – During the month of July – During a day game – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent 45-17-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – During the month of July – Vs Non Division Opponent – Vs NL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a night game – Coming off a 1 run win – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 39-21-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a Home team – Vs NL Conference – After a non conference game – Before a non division game – Coming off a 1 game win – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Allowed 3 runs AGAINST in their last game 43-21-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a -120 to -140 Home Favorite – Last 5 years – During the month of July – Before a non division game – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Scored 4 or less runs FOR in their last game 17-10-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a -120 to -140 Home Favorite – During a day game – Vs NL CENTRAL opponent – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a 1 run win – Coming off a night game – Scored 4 or less runs FOR in their last game 11-6-0
When NY YANKEES Played as home team as a Favorite – During Last 5 Years – With 4 Under or More 11 – 5 – 0

 

When CINCINNATI played as Road Team- in the month of July 2-8-0
When CINCINNATI team played as a Road team – During the month of July – 2nd game of a series – Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series – Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog 4-9-0
When CINCINNATI team played as a Road team – During a day game – After a non division game – Coming off a Road loss – Coming off 1 under 8-20-0
When CINCINNATI team Played as Road team as a Underdog – After a non division game – Playing on Saturday – Allowed 4 runs AGAINST in their last game – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 5-11-0
When CINCINNATI team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs Non Conference Opponent – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a 1 game loss – Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series 3-10-0
When CINCINNATI team played as a Road team – During the month of July – After a non division game – Coming off a Road loss – Coming off 1 under 4-8-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Coming off vs. American League opponent – Last 5 years – Before a non conference game – Coming off a 1 run lost – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off 1 under 10-22-0
When CINCINNATI Played as a Underdog – During Current Season – Lost Last Game by 1 Runs or Less 2 – 8 – 0

Historical stats to THREATEN the Yankee’s pick:

 

When A SIMON ‘s Team played as Underdog- With a spread between 100 and 120 6-4-0

 

When CINCINNATI played as any home/road team – During Last 4 Years – With 1 Under – Lost Last Game by 1 Runs or More – With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G 29 – 17 – 0

 

 

“When the line is unbelievable, then don’t believe it.” – Capper’s Corner

 

 

 

 

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