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Baltimore Orioles (Gausman) vs. Oakland A’s (Gray) – Preview for July 20th, 2014

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Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles 
O/U :7.53.33
Vs.Date: 2014-07-20
Time: 15:05:00

Generated from 47 Previous Games

Oakland Athletics
Oakland Athletics
SIDE :-165
4.29 = 7.62

BAL@OAK to go OVER 7.5

 

First let’s talk about Umpire Jordan Baker.

Baker has a 7-7 OU for the season; however, 7-7 is ambiguous so let’s break it down a tiny bit:

  • Baker’s ERA 4.0 (above average)
  • Baker’s WHIP 1.3 (above average)
  • Baker’s BB 6.6 (above average)
  • Baker’s SO 16.3 (above average)

So except for his SO tally, everything about Baker has him as an “OVER the total” umpire.

This would imply a SMALL SZ forcing pitchers to throw down broadway making it easy on hitters. Always an encouraging indication when capping for over totals

 

Let’s talk pitching FX.

Baltimore’s Gausman:

  • 4 Seamer – 73.6% (95.5 MPH)
  • Forkball – 23.6% (84.2 MPH)
  • Slider – 2%
  • 2 Seamer – 0.5%

 

This is effectively his entire arsenal.
Gausman sets them up with the heater and then throws the off-speed junk.

This is where Baker’s SZ comes into play. If he’s small off the bottom, then Gausman will have much difficulty on his pay-off Forkball. This could cause him to abandon it and try to score the out with strictly his 4-seamer steamer. Here is the thing. If this is the case, then we can predict a massive amount of foulballs as he is working with an already reduced strikezone and will be therefore telegraphing his pitches causing a high contact:whiff ratio. This could cause a big pitch count and an early appearance from the Baltimore bullpen.

If Baker gives him the bottom of the Strike Zone, then this should be standard fare for Gausman.

  • Gausman is 3.29 ERA all season.
  • Gausman is 4.11 ERA last 3 games.

Gausman is solid with a record of 1-0 vs Oakland with a 1.29 ERA and a 0.714 WHIP.

Bonus consideration: Gausman is a weakish 4.91 ERA vs RHH and Oakland happens to have one of the strongest RHH lineups.

 

Oakland’s Gray:

Curveball – 33.7% (81.7 MPH)
4 Seamer – 32.0% (93.6 MPH)
2 Seamer – 23.6% (93.3 MPH)
Changeup – 9.8% (86.1 MPH)
Cutter – 0.7% (91.6 MPH)
Fastball – 0.3% (88.3 MPH)

So again, with his Curveball being his #1 go to, Baker’s “bottom of the zone” is the critical consideration. If he is long on the bottom, then these pitchers will have an umpire that’s right in their wheelhouse, but given Baker’s numbers, we suspect that his strike-zone is a little bit on the short side therefore playing right in to the wheelhouse of our O7.5 bet.

Gray is 2.79 ERA all season.
Gray is 0.83 last 3 games.

Gray has been dominated by the Baltimore lineup with an 11.43 ERA and a 2.079 WHIP.

 

Let’s talk hitting.

  • Baltimore is 4.3 RPG all season.
  • Baltimore is 4.5 RPG vs RHP.
  • Baltimore is 3.4 L7G.

Bonus consideration:
Baltimore seems to have an affinity for hitting on the road with a 5.2 RPG average.

 

  • Oakland is 4.9 all season.
  • Oakland is 4.7 vs RHP.
  • Oakland is 3.6 L7G.

 

 

Summary:

  • Ump has an affinity to call games with higher ERA/WHIP/BB
  • In both of Gray’s appearances vs Baltimore, they picked up on something and have completely dominated his pitching. We’re hoping that this consideration will help offset his league elite ‘0.83 ERA last 3 starts’ record.
  • Both pitchers will need the bottom of the zone to stand a chance; Gray who depends on setting up and/ knocking down the count with the curveball, and Gausman who needs to be allowed the bottom of the zone to throw his knock-out Forkball.
  • 4 out of 5 games that these teams have played this season have gone OVER the total.

 

ATS RAYMOND REPORT

The report calculator shows that this will likely achieve the O7.5

TEAM: BALTIMORE
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 4.15 3.86
Home Games Avg 3.34 3.68
Road Games Avg 4.98 4.04
Last 3 Games Avg 5 3.33
Last 5 Games Avg 3.6 3
Last 10 Games Avg 3.9 3.2
vs. Division Games Avg 4.16 3.48
vs. Conference Games Avg 4.1 3.87
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 4.46 3.77
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.76 4.76
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 4.12 3.94
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 4.43 3.23
After a Win Games Avg 3.69 3.96
After a Lost Games Avg 4.83 3.9
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 4.27 3.69
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 5.7 4.65
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 3.08 4.24
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4.05 3.23
After an Over Games Avg 4.64 4.31
After an Under Games Avg 3.85 3.6
After a Push Games Avg 3.33 3
4.16 3.75

 

TEAM: OAKLAND
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 4.74 3.35
Home Games Avg 4.59 3.12
Road Games Avg 4.88 3.58
Last 3 Games Avg 4.33 4.33
Last 5 Games Avg 3.4 4.4
Last 10 Games Avg 4 3.1
vs. Division Games Avg 4.95 3.59
vs. Conference Games Avg 4.6 3.36
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 5.75 3.33
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 4.2 3.14
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 4.94 3.22
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 5.44 3.75
After a Win Games Avg 5.14 3.53
After a Lost Games Avg 4.47 3.14
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 5.14 3.97
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 4.29 2.9
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 5.13 3.1
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4.73 3.47
After an Over Games Avg 5.61 3.75
After an Under Games Avg 4.3 3.04
After a Push Games Avg 3 3.13
4.65 3.44

 

 

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