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Texas Rangers (Mikolas) vs. New York Yankees (Greene) – Preview – July 21st, 2014

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Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers 
O/U :8.5

3.16

Vs.

Date: 2014-07-21
Time: 18:05:00

Generated from 37 Previous Games

New York Yankees
New York Yankees
SIDE :-167

5.98 = 9.14

Pick: New York Yankees -167 (full unit)

 

ATS FORECAST

NYY has a +2.82 ATS Forecast evaluation sampled across 37 games. 
This is among the strongest we’ve ever seen from Forecast and therefore is our #1 consideration regarding the Yankee’s chances today.

 

 

ATS RAYMOND REPORT

Any time we see the report showing all red for a team (indicating it is below the league average in every consideration), it’s typically a good idea to fade that team.

 

TEXASTeam Name: TEXAS(Road Team)
Money Line: TEXAS +146 vs NY YANKEES -158
Spread Line: TEXAS +1.5 -140 —– NY YANKEES -1.5 +120
O/U: TEXAS 9 +100 —– NY YANKEES 9 -120
Pitchers: TEXAS – M Mikolas (R) vs NY YANKEES – S Greene (R)
Game Date: Monday,July 21 2014 6:05 PM
Last Game: lost 6 – 9 vs Toronto Blue Jays
Current Game: New York Yankees
Next Game: At NY YANKEES
Stats & Trends: TEXAS vs. NY YANKEES
PVI Rating on Winning: 41%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 45.26%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 67.35%
Streaks: 2 SU Lost – 1 Over
Road Teams % of winning this game: 38%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 52%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.26
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 4.27

 

Road Team
(TEXAS)
When TEXAS is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When TEXAS is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 9 5-6 77-78 47.57 3-7-1 55-84-16 65.22
vs Non-Division opponent 13-30 419-551 36.72 19-21-3 405-498-67 53.83
vs Conference opponent 9-17 291-366 39.46 11-14-1 269-337-51 55.81
Playing in the month of July 2-9 100-151 29.01 6-4-1 113-124-14 46.16
Playing on Monday 4-5 78-96 44.64 2-6-1 75-84-15 63.92
Played as road Underdog 13-29 454-667 35.73 19-21-2 486-561-74 53.04
After a Non-Division Game 13-28 417-546 37.51 19-19-3 392-503-68 53.1
After a Conference Game 10-21 305-386 38.2 12-17-2 285-355-51 57.05
vs AL WEST Division Opponent 9-10 88-138 43.16 9-7-3 90-119-17 50.35
vs AL Conference Opponent 18-27 323-417 41.83 20-21-4 315-387-38 53.18
Coming off vs AL EAST Division Opponent 3-14 113-142 30.98 6-10-1 105-135-15 59.38
Coming off vs American Conference Opponent 18-31 335-418 40.61 21-23-5 318-391-44 53.71
Coming off a 2 losing streak 2-2 88-99 48.53 2-2-0 83-98-6 52.07
Coming off 1 over 4-7 173-193 41.82 7-3-1 170-170-26 40
Coming off a lost 15-29 393-528 38.38 20-20-4 361-494-66 53.89
Coming off a Road Lost as a Underdog 8-20 228-339 34.39 15-11-2 225-300-42 49.73
During a night game 12-30 461-588 36.26 18-19-5 463-513-73 51.96
Coming off a 3 road trip (since 1996) 4-8 5-7 37.5 8-3-1 5-6-1 40.91
Coming off a 3 runs loss 2-4 46-65 37.39 2-3-1 44-59-8 58.64
Coming off a score 6 runs FOR in last game 0-1 51-70 21.08 0-1-0 51-63-7 77.63
Coming off a score 9 runs AGAINST in last game 0-1 20-24 22.73 1-0-0 21-21-2 25
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 5-14 261-320 35.62 9-9-1 255-281-45 51.22
vs NY YANKEES (since 1996) 31-54 23-24 42.71 38-45-2 16-29-2 59.33
Coming off a Lost over AL EAST division opponent 3-11 62-82 32.25 6-7-1 57-83-4 56.57
Coming off a game that went over 4-7 173-193 41.82 7-3-1 170-170-26 40
Coming off a day game 9-13 249-316 42.49 10-11-1 248-285-32 52.93
Coming off a series loss 7-8 140-218 42.89 9-4-2 156-175-27 41.82
Last 30 days 2-12 174-228 28.79 6-6-2 169-207-26 52.53
Last 45 days 6-16 271-355 35.28 10-10-2 262-325-39 52.69
Last 60 days 13-22 370-474 40.49 17-15-3 362-427-55 50.5
Last 90 days 19-33 568-715 40.41 24-22-6 550-639-94 50.79
Vs. Right handed pitchers 15-29 508-655 38.89 16-24-4 503-584-76 56.87
Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher 7-10 179-234 42.26 9-6-2 195-189-29 44.61
Coming off lost vs. Left handed pitcher 4-9 94-146 34.97 6-5-2 95-124-21 51.04

 

 

NY YANKEESTeam Name: NY YANKEES(Home Team)
Money Line: NY YANKEES -158 vs TEXAS +146
Spread Line: NY YANKEES -1.5 +120 —– TEXAS +1.5 -140
O/U: NY YANKEES 9 -120 —– TEXAS 9 +100
Pitchers: NY YANKEES – S Greene (R) vs TEXAS – M Mikolas (R)
Game Date: Monday,July 21 2014 6:05 PM
Last Game: win 2 – 3 vs Cincinnati Reds
Current Game: Texas Rangers
Next Game: Vs. TEXAS
Stats & Trends: NY YANKEES vs. TEXAS
PVI Rating on Winning: 51.55%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 55.79%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 46.94%
Streaks: 3 SU Win – 1 Under
Home Teams % of winning this game: 46%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 46%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.95
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.98

 

Home Team
(NY YANKEES)
When NY YANKEES is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When NY YANKEES is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 9 5-6 71-84 45.63 3-7-1 55-84-16 65.22
vs Non-Division opponent 11-14 466-504 46.02 8-17-0 405-498-67 61.58
vs Conference opponent 4-9 322-335 39.89 5-8-0 269-337-51 58.58
Playing in the month of July 3-2 131-120 56.1 1-3-1 113-124-14 63.66
Playing on Monday 1-3 76-98 34.34 2-2-0 75-84-15 51.42
Played as home Favorite 20-17 571-513 53.37 12-24-1 486-526-72 59.33
After a Non-Division Game 11-13 453-498 46.73 8-16-0 403-484-64 60.62
After a Non-Conference Game 6-5 136-176 49.07 3-8-0 137-156-19 62.99
vs AL WEST Division Opponent 3-7 92-132 35.54 4-6-0 97-113-14 56.91
vs AL Conference Opponent 14-21 339-406 42.75 13-20-2 335-372-38 56.62
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 6-3 167-157 59.11 2-7-0 136-164-24 66.23
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 6-5 420-442 51.64 3-8-0 364-426-72 63.33
Coming off a 3 winning streak 1-0 32-48 70 0-1-0 32-43-5 78.67
Coming off 1 under 4-7 191-228 40.97 3-8-0 169-222-28 64.76
Coming off a win 10-12 337-374 46.43 7-15-0 299-361-51 61.44
Coming off a Home Win as a Favorite 7-9 235-217 47.87 6-10-0 195-221-36 57.82
During a night game 10-19 487-562 40.46 11-18-0 463-513-73 57.32
Coming off a 3 home stand (since 1996) 7-2 7-4 70.71 3-5-1 3-8-0 67.62
Coming off a 1 runs win 2-3 105-129 42.44 2-3-0 96-120-18 57.78
Coming off a score 3 runs FOR in last game 1-5 88-109 30.67 3-3-0 83-95-19 51.69
Coming off a score 2 runs AGAINST in last game 0-5 104-108 24.53 3-1-1 79-121-12 42.75
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 9-17 329-335 42.09 10-15-1 286-329-49 56.75
vs TEXAS (since 1996) 54-31 29-33 55.15 38-45-2 28-28-6 52.11
Coming off a Win over NL CENTRAL division opponent 3-2 71-77 53.99 1-4-0 59-76-13 68.15
Coming off a game that went under 7-6 165-206 49.16 5-8-0 174-176-21 55.92
Coming off a day game 6-8 252-271 45.52 5-8-1 220-268-35 58.23
Coming off a series win 3-4 94-87 47.4 2-5-0 72-96-13 64.29
Last 30 days 4-7 192-210 42.06 2-7-2 169-207-26 66.42
Last 45 days 8-7 304-322 50.95 4-9-2 262-325-39 62.3
Last 60 days 10-12 410-434 47.02 7-13-2 362-427-55 59.56
Last 90 days 15-22 610-673 44.04 13-22-2 550-639-94 58.3
Vs. Right handed pitchers 16-16 557-629 48.48 12-18-2 522-588-76 56.49
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 15-19 538-620 45.29 10-23-1 485-600-73 62.5
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 8-10 247-270 46.11 5-13-0 217-263-37 63.51

 

 

ATS MATCHUPS

Texas, with 93 wins in 2012 and 91 wins in 2013, is not a feeble team! These guys have proven to be a good club with competent leadership! Something about today’s position, however, has them at a complete disadvantage. All teams slump. When they do, their position will identify itself in the stats and we suspect that this is the phenomenon that the Matchups, Forecast, and Report are picking up on today. We don’t recommend that you look ONLY at ATS for your picks, but that you do so in combination with external considerations; that said, if there were 1 pick so far in the 2014 season that we’d be comfortable betting *exclusively* because ATS ‘said so’, it would be the Yankees, here, today. 

Historical considerations to SUPPORT the NYY pick in this position:

When NY YANKEES played as Home Team- Vs TEXAS 10-5-0
When NY YANKEES played as Home Favourite- in the month of July 49-26-0
When NY YANKEES played as Home Favourite- Vs TEXAS 15-10-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a Home team – Vs AL Conference – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off 1 under – Coming off a 1 run win 24-12-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a Home team – During a night game – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Allowed 2 runs AGAINST in their last game 27-18-0
When NY YANKEES team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a series win – Scored 3 or less runs FOR in their last game 25-15-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a Home team – During a night game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off 1 under 64-39-0
When NY YANKEES team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs AL Conference – During the month of July – Coming off a 3 game winning streak – Coming off a Home win 14-7-0
When NY YANKEES team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Before a non division game – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a series win – Scored 3 or less runs FOR in their last game 42-20-0
When NY YANKEES team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs. Right handed pitchers – During the month of July – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Allowed 2 runs AGAINST in their last game 8-2-0
When NY YANKEES team Played as Home team as a Favorite – After a non division game – Vs AL WEST opponent – Coming off 1 under – Scored 3 or less runs FOR in their last game 35-15-0
When NY YANKEES team Played as Home team as a Favorite – 1st game of a series – Before a non division game – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Coming off 1 under 13-7-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a home team – During a night game – During the month of July 82-35-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a home team – Vs AL Conference – Vs Non Division Opponent 444-254-0
When NY YANKEES team Played as home team as a Favorite – During the month of July – During a night game 80-29-0
When NY YANKEES team Played as home team as a Favorite – During a night game – Vs AL WEST opponent 119-75-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a home team – Vs Conference Opponent – Vs Non Division Opponent 444-254-0
When NY YANKEES team Played as home team as a Favorite – After a non division game – Vs. Right handed pitchers 366-212-0
When NY YANKEES team Played as home team as a Favorite – After a non conference game – Vs. Right handed pitchers 78-39-0
When NY YANKEES team Played as home team as a Favorite – During the month of July – Vs AL WEST opponent 27-15-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a home team – 1st game of a series – During a night game 261-163-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite – Vs. Right handed pitchers – During the month of July 13-8-0
When NY YANKEES team Played as home team as a Favorite – During the month of July – Vs. Right handed pitchers 112-50-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a home team – 1st game of a series – Vs. Right handed pitchers 209-130-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a -140 to -160 Home Favorite – Vs AL Conference – Vs Non Division Opponent – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a 3 game winning streak 72-38-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a -140 to -160 Home Favorite – Last 4 years – During the month of July – Coming off a day game – Coming off a series win 17-6-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – During a night game – Vs Non Division Opponent – During the month of July – Coming off 1 under – Coming off a Home win – Coming off a 3 game winning streak 19-10-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs AL Conference – Vs Non Division Opponent – During a night game – Coming off a day game – Coming off 1 under – Scored 3 or less runs FOR in their last game 161-102-0
When NY YANKEES Played as home team as a Favorite – During Last 2 Years – With SU Record of 4 Win 3 Lost in L7G 32 – 13 – 0
When TEXAS Played as road team as a Underdog – During Last 4 Years – With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G 18 – 40 – 0
When TEXAS played as Road Underdog- With Total between 8.5 and 9.0 2-8-0
When TEXAS played as Home or Away Team- Vs AL East Division 2-8-0
When TEXAS played as Road Underdog- With a spread between 140 and 160 12-28-0
When TEXAS played as Home or Away Team- With Total between 8.5 and 9.0 1-11-3
When TEXAS team Played as Road team as a Underdog – After a non division game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off 1 over – Coming off a series loss 8-15-0
When TEXAS team played as a 140 to 160 Road Underdog – Before a conference game – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a Road loss – Coming off a series loss 3-8-0
When TEXAS team played as a 140 to 160 road Underdog – Vs AL Conference – Vs Non Division Opponent 23-63-0
When TEXAS team played as a 140 to 160 road Underdog – During a night game – During the month of July 6-12-0
When TEXAS team played as a 140 to 160 road Underdog – Vs Conference Opponent – Last 2 years 2-8-0
When TEXAS team played as a 140 to 160 road Underdog – During the month of July – Vs. Right handed pitchers 4-11-0
When TEXAS team played as a 140 to 160 road Underdog – After a non division game – Before a non division game 31-66-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a 140 to 160 Road Underdog – 1st game of a series – Last 5 years – Before a non division game – Coming off 1 over – Coming off a series loss 8-16-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a Road team – Vs AL Conference – Last 2 years – 1st game of a series – Coming off a Loss vs. AL EAST opponent – Coming off a 2 game losing streak 12-27-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Road team as a Underdog – After a non division game – Last 2 years – 1st game of a series – Coming off a 3 run lost – Coming off a series loss 8-19-0

 

 

Historical considerations to THREATEN the NYY pick in this position:

*NONE*

 

 

PITCHING

OK here is the deal. Mikolas is struggling while Greene is thriving.

  • The Rangers’ Mikolas is throwing a 10.05 ERA L3G
  • The Yankees’ Greene is throwing a 1.32 ERA L3G

 

We’ve arguably never seen a bigger discrepancy in the L3G consideration.

Texas used to have 11 sluggers that were pounding a consistent .700 OPS or above; however, after being plagued with injury, they now have only 6 hitters that touch .700 (OPS)
They are Choo, Odor, Martin, Beltre, Smolinski and Rios.
Of these 6 hitters, only Odor and Martin are hitting above a .167 AVG in the last 7 days.

New York only has 4 hitters clubbing over .700 OPS.
They are Wheeler, Teixera, Gardner and Ellsbury, (plus Suzuki batting a .285 AVG)
Of these 4 hitters, only Wheeler and Ellsbury are hitting above a .125 AVG in the last 7 days.

Bonus Consideration:

(Last 30 days with an above .275 AVG and/ a .700 OPS):

RANGERS (5):
Beltre
Arencibia
Smolinski
Martin
Roberson

YANKEES (6):
Wheeler
Ellsbury
Gardner
Roberts
McCann
Jeter

(Last 7 days with an above .500 AVG and/ a .1000 OPS):

RANGERS:
Odor

YANKEES (7):
Ellsbury
Beltran
Johnson
Wheeler

Summary: With all things equal and looking at the broad scope, both teams have only 2 rock solid ‘go-to’ hitters. That said, looking at recent performance, the Yankees annihilate at the plate in comparison to the Rangers.

It also can’t go without mentioning that all things are not equal!

Since the pitching is nowhere near equal, we suspect that Mikolas will cause some hitting where the Yankees otherwise would be stymied, and on the flip side, we expect Greene to shut down the Rangers’ bats where they otherwise may have gotten a few more hits giving the Yankees a strong edge in today’s contest.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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