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Los Angeles Dodgers (Haren) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Liriano) – July 23th, 2014

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Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers 
O/U :7.53.3
Vs.Date: 2014-07-23
Time: 18:05:00

Generated from 75 Previous Games

Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
SIDE :-139
4.27 = 7.57

 

Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates -139

 

  • Our primary consideration is the pricing. Superficially this should be priced at about PK.
    Considering the population difference between Pennsylvania and California, LAD is priced too good to be true.
  • Our secondary consideration here is the ATS Forecast. A full point is nothing to sneeze at, especially across 75 games.
  • Our third consideration here is the ATS Matchups.
  • Our fourth consideration is the Raymond Report.

 

The Dodger’s Haren is:

  • 4.30 ERA all season.
  • 5.11 ERA on the road.
  • Haren is 3-2 vs Pittsburgh with a mediocre 4.92 ERA and a 1.377 WHIP.

 

The Pirates’ Liriano is:

  • 4.43 ERA all season.
  • 5.32 ERA on the road.
  • Liriano is 2-0 vs Los Angeles with a stunning 1.42 ERA and a 0.947 WHIP.


Bullpens:

  • Dodger’s bullpen is 3.81 ERA.
  • Pirates’ bullpen is 3.41 ERA.

Hitting:

  • LAD is 4.2 RPG all season.
  • LAD is 4.5 RPG on the road.
  • LAD is 3.9 vs LHP.
  • PIT is 4.2 RPG all season.
  • PIT is 4.5 RPG at home.
  • PIT is 4.3 vs RHP.

Bonus Consideration: With both Puig and Ramirez CONFIRMED as sitting out, a huge piece of the Los Angeles offense will be missing tonight.

 

ATS MATCHUPS

Stats to SUPPORT the Pirates pick:

 

When PITTSBURGH played as Home Team- in the month of July 47-28-0
When PITTSBURGH played as Home Favourite- in the month of July 29-11-0
When PITTSBURGH played as Favourite- With a spread between 120 and 140 15-10-0
When PITTSBURGH played as Home Team- Vs NL West Division 8-2-0
When PITTSBURGH team played as a Home team – Coming off vs. National League opponent – During a night game – Coming off a 1 game win – Allowed 7 runs or more AGAINST in their last game 7-4-0
When PITTSBURGH team played as a -120 to -140 Home Favorite – Before a non division game – After a non division game – Coming off a 1 game win – Coming off 1 over 6-4-0
When PITTSBURGH team Played as Home team as a Favorite – During a night game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off 1 over – Allowed 7 runs or more AGAINST in their last game 27-11-0
When PITTSBURGH team played as a Home team – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off 1 over – Coming off a 1 game win 12-8-0
When PITTSBURGH team played as a -120 to -140 Home Favorite – Coming off vs. National League opponent – During the month of July – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Coming off a Home win 12-6-0
When PITTSBURGH team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Before a non division game – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a 1 game win – Coming off a Home win 46-24-0
When PITTSBURGH team played as a -120 to -140 home Favorite – After a non division game – Vs. Right handed pitchers 48-32-0
When PITTSBURGH team Played as home team as a Favorite – During a night game – Before a non division game 156-104-0
When PITTSBURGH team played as a -120 to -140 home Favorite – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Playing on Wednesday 17-7-0
When PITTSBURGH team played as a -120 to -140 home Favorite – During the month of July – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 13-2-0
When PITTSBURGH team Played as home team as a Favorite – Playing on Wednesday – Total is 7.5 8-4-0
When PITTSBURGH team Played as home team as a Favorite – Playing on Wednesday – During the month of July 12-7-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – 3rd game of a series – After a non division game – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a 1 game win – Coming off a Win vs. NL WEST opponent – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 87-56-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 5 years – After a conference game – During a night game – Coming off a 5 Game Home Stand 15-7-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs. Right handed pitchers – 3rd game of a series – Vs NL WEST opponent – Coming off a Win vs. NL WEST opponent – Coming off 1 over – Coming off a 5 Game Home Stand 14-9-0

 

When LOS ANGELES team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Coming off 1 over – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 5-10-0
When LOS ANGELES team Played as Road team as a Underdog – After a non division game – During the month of July – Coming off a Road loss – Coming off a lost in game 2 of a series 3-10-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Road team as a Underdog – During a night game – During the month of July – 3rd game of a series – Coming off a Road loss – Coming off 1 over – Coming off a lost in game 2 of a series 23-44-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Road team as a Underdog – During the month of July – Last 5 years – 3rd game of a series – Coming off a lost in game 2 of a series – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a 1 game loss 21-41-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a Road team – Vs Conference Opponent – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – During the month of July – Coming off a Loss vs. NL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a 1 game loss 11-21-0
When LOS ANGELES played as a road team – During Last 4 Years – Lost Last Game by 5 Runs or More 9 – 17 – 0

Stats to THREATEN the Pirates pick:

 

When LOS ANGELES played as Road Team- With a spread between 120 and 140 25-15-0
When LOS ANGELES team played as a Road team – During a night game – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Coming off a Loss vs. NL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a 1 game loss 14-9-0
When LOS ANGELES team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Vs NL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a Loss vs. NL CENTRAL opponent 6-4-0

 

RAYMOND REPORT

 

LOS ANGELESTeam Name: LOS ANGELES(Road Team)
Money Line: LOS ANGELES +125 vs PITTSBURGH -135
Spread Line: LOS ANGELES +1.5 -180 —– PITTSBURGH -1.5 +160
O/U: LOS ANGELES 7.5 -110 —– PITTSBURGH 7.5 -110
Pitchers: LOS ANGELES – D Haren (R) vs PITTSBURGH – F Liriano (L)
Game Date: Wednesday,July 23 2014 6:05 PM
Last Game: lost 7 – 12 vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Current Game: Pittsburgh Pirates
Next Game: At SAN FRANCISCO
Stats & Trends: LOS ANGELES vs. PITTSBURGH
PVI Rating on Winning: 54.9%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 50.52%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 57.14%
Streaks: 1 SU Lost – 1 Over
Road Teams % of winning this game: 51%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 58%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.98
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.79
Road Team
(LOS ANGELES)
When LOS ANGELES is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When LOS ANGELES is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 9-6 182-203 53.64 7-8-0 200-185-0 50.69
vs Non-Division opponent 15-15 431-558 46.79 14-15-1 411-511-67 53.57
vs Conference opponent 10-11 299-369 46.19 9-11-1 273-344-51 55.38
Playing in the month of July 5-6 117-165 43.47 4-6-1 123-143-16 56.88
Playing on Wednesday 4-4 108-136 47.13 2-5-1 89-136-19 65.94
Played as road Underdog 7-11 464-676 39.8 7-11-0 490-575-75 57.55
After a Non-Division Game 17-11 430-556 52.16 10-17-1 399-518-69 59.73
After a Conference Game 10-13 315-391 44.05 10-12-1 290-365-51 55.14
vs NL WEST Division Opponent 16-8 134-125 59.21 6-17-1 120-125-14 62.47
vs NL Conference Opponent 26-19 392-485 51.24 15-28-2 383-421-73 58.74
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 3-4 142-177 43.69 2-5-0 139-160-20 62.47
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 21-21 370-477 46.84 15-25-2 371-410-66 57.5
Coming off 1 over 10-5 177-194 57.19 3-11-1 172-173-26 64.36
Coming off a lost 19-7 400-536 57.91 6-20-0 364-505-67 67.52
Coming off a Road Lost as a Underdog 3-5 233-345 38.91 0-8-0 226-309-43 78.88
During a night game 23-14 478-602 53.21 16-19-2 473-532-75 53.62
Coming off a 5 road trip 2-1 26-29 56.97 1-2-0 18-34-3 66.03
Coming off a 5 runs loss 0-2 28-23 27.45 0-2-0 18-29-4 80.85
Coming off a score 7 runs FOR in last game 1-3 35-51 32.85 1-3-0 39-41-6 63.13
Coming off a score 12 runs AGAINST in last game (since 1996) 8-8 8-9 48.53 9-6-1 5-9-3 52.15
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 7-9 270-330 44.38 8-8-0 260-293-47 51.49
vs PITTSBURGH (since 1996) 45-26 21-33 51.14 48-22-1 24-24-6 40.72
Coming off a Lost over NL CENTRAL division opponent 1-2 82-102 38.95 1-2-0 73-96-15 61.74
Coming off a game that went over 10-5 177-194 57.19 3-11-1 172-173-26 64.36
Coming off a night game 22-16 457-578 51.02 14-22-2 442-516-77 57.49
Split 1st 2 games of a series 7-3 104-154 55.16 3-7-0 100-144-14 64.51
Coming off a lost in game 2 of a series 5-1 41.67 1-5-0 41.67
Last 30 days 7-7 174-228 46.64 6-7-1 170-208-24 54.44
Last 45 days 12-10 276-345 49.5 8-13-1 254-328-39 59.13
Last 60 days 14-12 381-462 49.53 8-17-1 360-431-52 61.25
Last 90 days 23-20 568-712 48.94 17-24-2 544-641-95 56.32
Vs. Left handed pitchers 11-2 205-246 65.04 4-9-0 192-225-34 61.6
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 24-10 530-660 57.57 11-21-2 494-616-80 60.57
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 14-6 292-378 56.79 5-15-0 258-368-44 66.9

 

 

PITTSBURGHTeam Name: PITTSBURGH(Home Team)
Money Line: PITTSBURGH -135 vs LOS ANGELES +125
Spread Line: PITTSBURGH -1.5 +160 —– LOS ANGELES +1.5 -180
O/U: PITTSBURGH 7.5 -110 —– LOS ANGELES 7.5 -110
Pitchers: PITTSBURGH – F Liriano (L) vs LOS ANGELES – D Haren (R)
Game Date: Wednesday,July 23 2014 6:05 PM
Last Game: win 7 – 12 vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Current Game: Los Angeles Dodgers
Next Game: At COLORADO
Stats & Trends: PITTSBURGH vs. LOS ANGELES
PVI Rating on Winning: 52.53%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 51.61%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 20.41%
Streaks: 1 SU Win – 1 Over
Home Teams % of winning this game: 55%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 55%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 4.24
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 4.01

 

Home Team
(PITTSBURGH)
When PITTSBURGH is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When PITTSBURGH is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 15-9 191-194 56.06 14-10-0 200-185-0 44.86
vs Non-Division opponent 20-7 471-518 60.85 11-12-4 411-511-67 53.8
vs Conference opponent 17-5 325-343 62.96 6-12-4 273-344-51 61.21
Playing in the month of July 9-2 141-141 65.91 4-6-1 123-143-16 56.88
Playing on Wednesday 5-2 112-132 58.67 2-3-2 89-136-19 60.22
Played as home Favorite 26-15 578-525 57.91 17-18-6 490-540-73 51.93
After a Non-Division Game 21-8 460-510 59.92 14-11-4 409-497-64 49.43
After a Conference Game 15-4 349-352 64.37 5-10-4 285-366-50 61.45
vs NL WEST Division Opponent 8-3 130-120 62.37 3-6-2 100-131-19 61.69
vs NL Conference Opponent 30-19 426-448 54.98 19-24-6 361-440-73 55.37
Coming off vs NL WEST Division Opponent 9-2 121-132 64.83 5-4-2 101-131-21 50.46
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 27-18 425-456 54.12 18-21-6 370-437-74 54
Coming off 1 over 5-6 167-213 44.7 7-3-1 177-181-22 40.28
Coming off a win 16-13 338-384 50.99 11-12-6 301-369-52 53.62
Coming off a Home Win as a Favorite 14-9 236-226 55.98 7-11-5 196-229-37 57.5
During a night game 25-13 497-583 55.91 20-15-3 473-532-75 47.9
Coming off a 5 home stand 1-1 36-32 51.47 0-1-1 28-31-9 76.27
Coming off a 5 runs win (since 1996) 27-22 22-26 50.47 26-23-0 19-26-3 52.36
Coming off a score 12 runs FOR in last game 0-1 9-7 28.13 0-0-1 4-10-2 35.72
Coming off a score 7 runs AGAINST in last game 1-1 38-44 48.17 1-1-0 38-39-5 50.33
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 8-5 268-310 53.96 7-5-1 249-294-35 47.91
vs LOS ANGELES (since 1996) 26-45 22-32 38.68 48-22-1 20-32-2 46.49
Coming off a Win over NL WEST division opponent 5-2 59-72 58.24 2-3-2 42-77-12 62.36
Coming off a game that went over 5-6 167-213 44.7 7-3-1 177-181-22 40.28
Coming off a night game 20-16 504-573 51.18 14-17-5 472-531-74 53.89
Split 1st 2 games of a series 3-3 124-134 49.03 1-4-1 101-143-14 69.31
Coming off a win in game 2 of a series 5-5 100-106 49.27 5-3-2 83-111-12 47.36
Last 30 days 12-3 189-213 63.51 5-9-1 170-208-24 59.66
Last 45 days 16-7 294-327 58.46 9-13-1 254-328-39 57.73
Last 60 days 18-9 400-443 57.06 11-14-2 360-431-52 55.25
Last 90 days 27-14 607-673 56.64 19-18-4 544-641-95 51.37
Vs. Right handed pitchers 29-17 564-645 54.85 22-19-5 532-600-77 49.67
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 21-17 545-630 50.82 19-14-5 489-612-74 49.01
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 13-11 248-278 50.66 10-9-5 218-270-38 51.35

 

 

 

 

 

 

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