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Houston Astros (Feldman) vs. Oakland A’s (Samardzija) – Preview – July 24th, 2014

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Houston Astros
Houston Astros 
O/U :7.5

3.02

Vs.

Date: 2014-07-24
Time: 14:35:00

Generated from 78 Previous Games

Oakland Athletics
Oakland Athletics
SIDE :-245

5.21 = 8.23

 

Pick: Oakland Athletics -245 (1/2 Unit)

 

  • Our primary consideration is the +2.19 Forecast advantage with Oakland across 78 games.
  • Our secondary consideration is the fact that the opening line has not moved more than 0.10 points from the powerrating. In these instances, when the line is 1.52 (-190) or less, the result is 13-4. This is the only reason we would look at a game with this kind of chalk. As far as the market is concerned, it is a “safe” bet that will earn money over time. Our results in the 2013 season were comparable so this is not a ‘1-off’ consideration.
  • Our tertiary consideration is the ATS Raymond Report.
  • Our quarternary consideration is the ATS Matchup.
  • Our quinary consideration is the statistical domination that Oakland has over the Astros.

 

ATS Raymond Report

HOUSTONTeam Name: HOUSTON(Road Team)
Money Line: HOUSTON +232 vs OAKLAND -262
Spread Line: HOUSTON +1.5 +105 —– OAKLAND -1.5 -125
O/U: HOUSTON 7.5 -110 —– OAKLAND 7.5 -110
Pitchers: HOUSTON – S Feldman (R) vs OAKLAND – J Samardzija (R)
Game Date: Thursday,July 24 2014 2:35 PM
Last Game: 0 – 0 vs Oakland Athletics
Current Game: Oakland Athletics
Next Game: Vs. MIAMI
Stats & Trends: HOUSTON vs. OAKLAND
PVI Rating on Winning: 41.18%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 51.52%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 55.1%
Streaks: 2 SU Win – 1 Under
Road Teams % of winning this game: 37%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 57%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 2.98
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.51

 

Road Team
(HOUSTON)
When HOUSTON is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When HOUSTON is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 6-12 185-207 40.26 9-9-0 201-191-0 49.36
vs Non-Division opponent 21-45 436-563 37.73 24-38-4 414-517-68 58.41
vs Non-Conference opponent 20-42 135-190 36.9 22-36-4 140-169-16 58.38
Playing in the month of July 5-9 123-174 38.56 7-6-1 127-152-18 50.32
Playing on Thursday 2-5 79-94 37.12 1-6-0 78-87-8 69.22
Played as road Underdog 21-41 467-681 37.28 24-35-3 492-580-76 56.71
After a Non-Division Game 21-45 435-561 37.75 24-38-4 402-524-70 58.94
After a Non-Conference Game 21-42 133-179 37.98 23-36-4 131-162-19 58.16
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent (since 1996) 291-323 140-187 45.1 288-308-18 143-161-23 52.32
vs NL Conference Opponent 1-3 396-489 34.88 2-2-0 385-425-75 51.24
Coming off vs AL WEST Division Opponent 11-27 102-135 36 14-20-4 91-125-21 58.35
Coming off vs American Conference Opponent 21-42 347-429 39.03 23-36-4 324-408-44 58.38
Coming off 1 over 7-9 179-198 45.62 5-11-0 173-176-28 59.59
Coming off a lost 13-39 403-541 33.85 17-31-4 367-509-68 61.35
Coming off a Road Lost as a Underdog 10-30 234-348 32.61 12-25-3 227-312-43 62.73
During a day game 6-13 248-310 38.01 5-13-1 229-292-37 64.14
Coming off a 5 road trip 0-1 27-31 23.28 0-1-0 18-37-3 83.64
Coming off a 2 runs loss 0-1 64-50 28.07 0-1-0 44-64-6 79.63
Coming off a score 7 runs FOR in last game (since 1996) 54-62 37-53 43.83 56-57-3 39-44-7 51.73
Coming off a score 9 runs AGAINST in last game 0-2 21-24 23.34 0-2-0 21-22-2 75.58
vs. opponent with a 61% to 70% winning % 2-11 48-67 28.56 3-9-1 48-62-5 65.68
vs OAKLAND (since 1996) 4-14 17-35 27.46 8-9-1 25-25-2 51.47
Coming off a Lost over AL WEST division opponent 8-24 60-94 31.98 9-19-4 51-83-20 64.9
Coming off a game that went over 7-9 179-198 45.62 5-11-0 173-176-28 59.59
Coming off a night game 14-33 463-587 36.95 19-26-2 446-525-79 55.93
Split 1st 2 games of a series 0-8 107-158 20.19 2-5-1 103-149-13 65.28
Coming off a lost in game 2 of a series 5-12 14.71 5-11-1 34.38
Last 30 days 5-9 174-232 39.29 7-6-1 169-211-26 50.84
Last 45 days 7-15 273-348 37.89 10-11-1 252-328-41 54.47
Last 60 days 13-17 378-465 44.09 15-14-1 358-431-54 51.46
Last 90 days 17-32 566-718 39.39 19-27-3 542-646-96 56.54
Vs. Right handed pitchers 16-29 522-670 39.68 17-25-3 512-602-78 56.78
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 16-26 534-668 41.27 13-27-2 496-624-82 61.61
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 12-24 295-382 38.45 12-21-3 260-372-45 61.25

 

OAKLANDTeam Name: OAKLAND(Home Team)
Money Line: OAKLAND -262 vs HOUSTON +232
Spread Line: OAKLAND -1.5 -125 —– HOUSTON +1.5 +105
O/U: OAKLAND 7.5 -110 —– HOUSTON 7.5 -110
Pitchers: OAKLAND – J Samardzija (R) vs HOUSTON – S Feldman (R)
Game Date: Thursday,July 24 2014 2:35 PM
Last Game: 0 – 0 vs Houston Astros
Current Game: Houston Astros
Next Game: At TEXAS
Stats & Trends: OAKLAND vs. HOUSTON
PVI Rating on Winning: 61.22%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 48.89%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 42.86%
Streaks: 1 SU Lost – 1 Under
Home Teams % of winning this game: 58%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 58%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 4.62
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.23

 

Home Team
(OAKLAND)
When OAKLAND is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When OAKLAND is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 17-8 195-197 58.87 13-12-0 201-191-0 48.36
vs Non-Division opponent 24-11 476-523 58.11 15-18-2 414-517-68 55.04
vs Non-Conference opponent 9-1 147-178 67.62 4-4-2 140-169-16 52.35
Playing in the month of July 9-2 150-147 66.17 4-6-1 127-152-18 57.24
Playing on Thursday 3-1 81-92 60.91 1-3-0 78-87-8 63.87
Played as home Favorite 31-17 583-528 58.53 22-24-2 492-545-74 52.37
After a Non-Division Game 22-12 465-515 56.08 15-17-2 412-503-65 54.05
After a Non-Conference Game 7-1 139-182 65.4 4-2-2 140-162-19 43.49
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 4-1 167-165 65.15 2-3-0 142-171-19 57.32
vs NL Conference Opponent 9-1 431-451 69.44 4-4-2 363-444-75 52.51
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 3-1 171-160 63.33 2-2-0 137-170-24 52.69
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 7-1 430-459 67.94 4-2-2 372-441-76 43.79
Coming off 1 over 6-5 171-214 49.49 7-3-1 178-183-24 40.35
Coming off a win 20-11 342-386 55.75 14-15-2 304-372-52 53.38
Coming off a Home Win as a Favorite 18-9 239-227 58.98 13-12-2 197-232-37 51.04
During a day game 12-7 276-282 56.31 9-10-0 229-292-37 54.34
Coming off a 5 home stand 1-1 37-34 51.06 0-1-1 29-33-9 76.62
Coming off a 2 runs win 4-1 55-66 62.73 2-3-0 51-62-8 57.44
Coming off a score 9 runs FOR in last game 2-0 27-17 80.68 2-0-0 20-22-2 26.19
Coming off a score 7 runs AGAINST in last game 1-0 40-46 73.26 0-1-0 38-42-6 76.25
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 6-5 338-351 51.81 5-6-0 293-344-52 54.28
vs HOUSTON (since 1996) 14-4 32-34 63.13 8-9-1 24-38-4 57.12
Coming off a Win over NL CENTRAL division opponent 2-1 73-79 57.35 1-2-0 59-80-13 62.11
Coming off a game that went over 6-5 171-214 49.49 7-3-1 178-183-24 40.35
Coming off a night game 22-13 513-579 54.92 16-17-2 476-540-76 52.34
Split 1st 2 games of a series 4-3 128-137 52.72 3-4-0 104-148-13 57.94
Coming off a win in game 2 of a series 7-1 104-107 68.4 3-5-0 85-114-12 59.9
Last 30 days 9-2 194-212 64.8 4-6-1 169-211-26 57.77
Last 45 days 16-5 298-323 62.09 8-12-1 252-328-41 58.28
Last 60 days 21-7 403-440 61.41 14-13-1 358-431-54 51.39
Last 90 days 27-11 613-671 59.4 20-16-2 542-646-96 49.41
Vs. Right handed pitchers 22-15 573-650 53.16 17-19-1 536-608-79 52.97
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 19-10 550-636 55.95 16-12-1 491-620-75 49.34
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 14-8 252-279 55.55 9-11-2 220-273-38 55.19

 

ATS MATCHUPS

Stats to SUPPORT the Oakland pick:

When OAKLAND played as Favourite- in the month of July 31-13-1
When OAKLAND played as Home or Away Team- Vs HOUSTON 25-8-1
When J Samardzija ‘s Team played as Home or Away Team- in the month of July 8-5-0
When OAKLAND played as Home Favourite- With a spread between 260 and 280 17-7-1
When OAKLAND team played as a Home team – After a non division game – During a day game – Coming off a 5 Game Home Stand – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 28-10-0
When OAKLAND team played as a Home team – During a day game – Vs AL WEST opponent – Coming off a 2 game under – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 7-4-0
When OAKLAND team played as a home team – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 177-117-0
When OAKLAND team Played as home team as a Favorite – After a non division game – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 155-76-0
When OAKLAND team Played as home team as a Favorite – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Vs AL WEST opponent 62-34-0
When OAKLAND team Played as home team as a Favorite – During the month of July – Total is 7.5 20-11-0
When OAKLAND team Played as home team as a Favorite – Vs. Right handed pitchers – During a day game 229-109-0
When OAKLAND team played as a -260 to -280 home Favorite – After a non division game – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 8-3-0
When OAKLAND team Played as home team as a Favorite – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – During a day game 92-39-0
When OAKLAND team Played as home team as a Favorite – Total is 7.5 – Vs. Right handed pitchers 71-40-0
When OAKLAND team played as a home team – Total is 7.5 – During the month of July 27-17-0
When OAKLAND team Played as home team as a Favorite – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Total is 7.5 71-40-0
When OAKLAND team played as a home team – Playing on Thursday – Vs. Right handed pitchers 72-39-0
When OAKLAND team Played as home team as a Favorite – Last 3 years – During a day game 60-29-0
When OAKLAND team Played as home team as a Favorite – During a day game – During the month of July 58-27-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a -260 to -280 Home Favorite – 3rd game of a series – During a day game – Before a division game – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 14-8-0
When OAKLAND Played as a Favorite – During Last 4 Years – With 2 Under or Less – With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G 25 – 15 – 0
When OAKLAND Played as a Favorite – During Last 5 Years – With 2 Under or Less 96 – 57 – 0
When OAKLAND Played as home team as a Favorite – During Current Season – With SU Record of 3 Win 4 Lost in L7G 8 – 2 – 0
When OAKLAND played as a home team – During Last 5 Years – With 2 Under – With SU Record of 2 Win 3 Lost in L5G 11 – 4 – 0
When OAKLAND Played as a Favorite – During Current Season – With 2 Under or Less – With SU Record of 2 Win 3 Lost in L5G 7 – 4 – 0
When OAKLAND Played as home team as a Favorite – During Last 4 Years – With 2 Under or More – With SU Record of 2 Win 3 Lost in L5G 13 – 4 – 0

 

When HOUSTON played as Road Underdog- Vs OAKLAND 4-12-1
When HOUSTON played as Home or Away Team- in the month of July 22-72-6
When FELDMAN SCOTT ‘s Team played as Road Underdog- With Total between 7.5 and 8.0 4-12-0
When FELDMAN SCOTT ‘s Team played as Road Team- With Total between 7.5 and 8.0 4-15-0
When HOUSTON played as Underdog- With a spread between 220 and 240 5-14-0
When HOUSTON team played as a Road team – After a non division game – Before a non conference game – Allowed 0 runs AGAINST in their last game – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 5-12-0
When HOUSTON team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Before a non division game – Before a non conference game – Coming off a 2 game under – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 3-7-0
When HOUSTON team played as a Road team – During a day game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a 1 run win – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 10-25-0
When HOUSTON team Played as Road team as a Underdog – After a non conference game – Before a non division game – Allowed 0 runs AGAINST in their last game – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 5-11-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a 220 to 240 Road Underdog – Coming off vs. American League opponent – 3rd game of a series – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a night game 3-12-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs. Right handed pitchers – During the month of July – Coming off a 5 Game Road Trip – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 31-62-0
When HOUSTON Played as a Underdog – During Last 2 Years – With 2 Under or Less 51 – 100 – 0
When HOUSTON Played as a Underdog – During Last 5 Years – With 2 Under – With SU Record of 2 Win 5 Lost in L7G 8 – 16 – 0
When HOUSTON Played as road team as a Underdog – During Last 3 Years – With 2 Under or Less – With SU Record of 2 Win 5 Lost in L7G 9 – 20 – 0

 

Stats to THREATEN the Oakland pick:

When FELDMAN SCOTT ‘s Team played as Road Team- in the month of July 7-3-0
When HOUSTON team Played as road team as a Underdog – Playing on Thursday – Total is 7.5 13-7-0

 

PITCHING

Houston’s Feldman is:
4.30 ERA all season.
2.95 ERA on the road.
5.89 ERA last 3 games.
Feldman is 5-6 vs OAK with a 6.82 ERA and a 1.574 WHIP.

Oakland’s Samardzija is
3.05 ERA all season.
2.42 ERA at home.
3.27 ERA last 3 games.
Samardzija is 2.1 vs HOU with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP.

 

HITTING

Houston is hitting:
3.9 RPG all season.
4.1 RPG on the road.
3.7 RPG vs RH staters.

Oakland is hitting:
5.0 RPG all season.
5.0 RPG at home.
4.9 RPG vs RH starters.

 

BULLPEN

  • Houston is 4.90 ERA all season.
  • Houston is 5.27 ERA on the road.
  • Oakland is 3.04 ERA all season.
  • Oakland is 3.16 ERA at home.

 

UMPIRE ANALYSIS

Paul Schreiber calls them off the outside with LH hitters. This is typical among most umpires, but with Schreiber it’s a little moreso. What’s that mean? Well, OAK’s strongest hitters are evenly dispersed between R/L handed hitters. So Vogt, Moss, Crisp, Jaso, Fuld may have a tougher time connecting today. On the flip side, most of Houston’s strongest hitters are RH hitters so a wide zone for LHH is an upside for Houston.

Schreiber also has a little bit of a tall zone on the bottom. So considering that Houston’s Feldman has a Sinker has his #1 pitch and a Curveball as his #2, he will be able to throw his own game. This could cause all Oakland hitters some issues.

As for Oakland’s Samardzija, he throws a 4 seamer as his #1 pitch, but then throws his splitter, his 2-seamer, and his slider to equal effect. So Samardzija can definitely use his Slider off the outside vs RHH and he can put some nasty junk on his splitter.

All-in-all, this umpire will favour the Houston Astros, and it’s the reason that we don’t recommend more than a 1/2 unit, and it’s the reason that we don’t recommend the RL line.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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