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Washington Nationals (Roark) vs. Cincinnati Reds (Simon) – July 25th, 2014

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Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals 
SIDE :-117

3.63

Vs.

Date: 2014-07-25
Time: 18:10:00

Generated from 41 Previous Games

Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
O/U :7.5

2.7 = 6.33

 

Pick: Washington Nationals -117

 

This is a complicated line to look into. Our first instinct here should be to suspect that Washington is priced too good to be true:

 

  • Washington is 6-2 last 8 games.
  • Cincinnati is 1-7 last 8 games.
  • Washington is averaging a walloping 6.1 RPG last 7 games, while Cincinnati is trickling a measily 2.6 RPG L7G.
  • Washington’s pen is one of the best in the league marking a 2.61 ERA all season.
  • The Nationals’ Roark is pitching a 2.91 ERA all season (2.57 L3G).
  • The Reds’ Simon is pitching a 2.74 ERA all season (2.37 L3G).
  • Roark has pitched a 1.50 ERA vs Cincinnati across 1 outing.
  • Simon has pitched a 1.29 ERA vs Washington across 1 outing.

To sum up:

  • Washington has a massive advantage in hitting lately.
  • Washington has a slight advantage with their bullpen.
  • Pitching is equal.
  • Pitching histories are equal.

 

 

So maybe we could say that Washington should have a slight advantage and maybe we could say that it’s just a good line but ultimately, we would still expect to see the Washington line at -130 or less. “-117” is too good for these statistic.

HOWEVER THIS CAN BE EXPLAINED by 2 critical considerations:

a) Cincinnati has lost 6 straight games.
Any bettors playing martingale systems are betting 64:1 units on Cincinnati to win.
(1 loss, 2 loss, 4 loss, 8 loss, 16 loss, 32 loss, 64)

This represents piles of money being dumped on the Cincinnati line that has nothing to do with their chances to win today. This is a legitimate reason to feel a little more comfortable with the Washington pick at these odds despite it looking too good to be true.

b) Ohio state has 11.5 million citizens while Columbia has 0.6 million.
There is a 19:1 population difference between these states. When it comes to fans that bet their own home team no matter what, for every 1 person that bets the Nationals, there are 19 to bet on Cincinnati. Once again, this consideration provides us a fair explanation as to why the Washington line could be priced with such a high value and still be a good wager with legitimate chances.

Summary: Normally we’d steer clear of this kind of “value” and find something that makes more sense, but in this case, we have some valid explanations as to why Washington is priced the way that they are and why Cincinnati has 60% of the action despite the basic statistics clearly favouring Washington.

Bonus consideration: This is the weekend! Home team bettors increase their action on Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays, due to the fact that more people have the time to watch and enjoy their home team play. This magnifies the ‘a)’ consideration.

 

ATS FORECAST

  • Gives Washington nearly a full point advantage.

 

ATS RAYMOND REPORT

  • Gives Cincinnati a 5% edge to win, but according to the Report calculator, Washington are predicted as being +1.22 ahead of the game.

 

ATS MATCHUPS

  • Gives these teams approximately equal chances.

Stats to SUPPORT the Washington pick:

When WASHINGTON Played as a Favorite – During Last 4 Years – With SU Record of 4 Win 1 Lost in L5G 41 – 21 – 0
When ANY MLB Team played as a Road team – Vs Conference Opponent – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a 3 Game Road Trip – Coming off a Road loss as a Favorite 19-11-0
When WASHINGTON team Played as road team as a Favorite – Playing on Friday – Vs Non Division Opponent 9-5-0
When CINCINNATI team Played as home team as a Underdog – 1st game of a series – During the month of July 6-14-0
When CINCINNATI team Played as home team as a Underdog – During the month of July – Playing on Friday 5-10-0
When CINCINNATI team played as a 100 to 120 home Underdog – Playing on Friday – Vs Non Division Opponent 6-12-0
When CINCINNATI team played as a 100 to 120 home Underdog – After a conference game – With 1 day off 6-12-0

 

When CINCINNATI played as Home Underdog- With a spread between 100 and 120 7-13-0
When CINCINNATI played as Home Underdog- in the month of July 24-48-0
When CINCINNATI team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Vs Conference Opponent – During a night game – Coming off a series loss – Coming off a lost in game 3 of a series 4-8-0 7-5-0

 

 

Stats to THREATEN the Cincinnati pick:

 

When A SIMON ‘s Team played as Home or Away Team- With Total between 7.5 and 8.0 8-2-0
When CINCINNATI team Played as Home team as a Underdog – 1st game of a series – During a night game – Coming off a 6 Game Road Trip – Allowed 5 runs or more AGAINST in their last game 8-2-0
When CINCINNATI team played as a 100 to 120 home Underdog – Total is 7.5 – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 8-4-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a 100 to 120 Home Underdog – Last 3 years – Playing on Friday – With 1 day off – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Allowed 5 runs or more AGAINST in their last game – Coming off a lost in game 3 of a series 9-6-0

 

 

 

 

 

 

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