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Minnesota Twins (Gibson) vs. Kansas City Royals (Shields) – Preview for July 29th, 2014

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Minnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins 
O/U :7.5

4.98

Vs.

Date: 2014-07-29
Time: 19:10:00

Generated from 28 Previous Games

Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals
SIDE :-185

4.14 = 9.12

Pick: Kansas City Royals -185

 

Our chief point of focus on this pick is the fact that Minnesota is priced far too good to be true.

  • Twins W/L is 47-57 for the season.
  • Royals W/L is 53-51 record.
  • Twins are hitting 4.0 vs RHP
  • Royals are hitting 4.3 vs RHP
  • Twins’ bullpen is throwing 3.14 ERA all season.
  • Royals’ bullpen is throwing 3.41 ERA all season.
  • Twins’ Gibson is throwing 4.19 ERA all season and 6.91 ERA L3G.
  • Royals’ Shields is throwing 3.58 ERA all season and 2.75 ERA L3G.
  • Gibson is 2-0 in starts vs KCR with a 2.19 ERA and WHIP of 1.379
  • Shields is 7-5 in starts vs MIN with a 4.21 ERA and a WHIP of 1.467

 

The only notable advantage is L3G performance but that’s swiftly countered by these pitchers’ history vs the opposing teams.

At the end of the day, we don’t feel that this merits anywhere near a now +185 line for Minnesota. We are forced to ask what kind of money must be riding on KCR to deflate the line to this extent. We are forced to consider that it’s the game that sharp money has chosen to select for the win today.

 

ATS MATCHUPS

Considerations to support the Kansas pick:

When KANSAS CITY played as Favourite- With a spread between 160 and 180 27-18-0
When SHIELDS JAMES ‘s Team played as Favourite- With a spread between 160 and 180 19-8-0
When KANSAS CITY team played as a Home team – Playing on Tuesday – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a Loss vs. AL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a Home loss 19-9-0
When KANSAS CITY team played as a -160 to -180 home Favorite – During a night game – Before a division game 7-4-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a -160 to -180 Home Favorite – Last 4 years – 1st game of a series – With 1 day off – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a day game 44-18-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a -160 to -180 Home Favorite – Last 2 years – Vs Division Opponent – Scored 3 or more runs FOR in their last game – Coming off a 1 game loss 15-8-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a -160 to -180 Home Favorite – Last 3 years – During the month of July – Before a division game – Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 14-8-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a -160 to -180 Home Favorite – Last 5 years – During a night game – Coming off a Loss vs. AL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a Home loss 39-25-0

 

 

When MINNESOTA played as Road Team- Vs KANSAS CITY 3-7-0
When MINNESOTA played as Road Underdog- With Total between 7.5 and 8.0 12-23-0
When MINNESOTA team played as a Road team – Vs AL Conference – Before a conference game – Scored 4 or less runs FOR in their last game – Coming off a Win vs. AL CENTRAL opponent 4-10-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs AL Conference – During the month of July – Playing on Tuesday – Allowed 3 runs or more AGAINST in their last game – Coming off a series loss 16-30-0
When MINNESOTA team played as a 140 to 160 road Underdog – During a night game – Playing on Tuesday 11-21-0
When MINNESOTA team played as a 140 to 160 road Underdog – Playing on Tuesday – Vs AL CENTRAL opponent 2-9-0
When MINNESOTA team played as a 140 to 160 road Underdog – Playing on Tuesday – During a night game 11-21-0
When MINNESOTA team played as a 140 to 160 road Underdog – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Before a division game 13-31-0

 

 

Considerations to threaten the Kansas pick:

 

When KANSAS CITY played as any home/road team – During Current Season – With SU Record of 5 Win 2 Lost in L7G 2 – 8 – 0

 

 

RAYMOND REPORT

MINNESOTATeam Name: MINNESOTA(Road Team)
Money Line: MINNESOTA +160 vs KANSAS CITY -175
Spread Line: MINNESOTA +1.5 -135 —– KANSAS CITY -1.5 +115
O/U: MINNESOTA 8 +100 —– KANSAS CITY 8 -120
Pitchers: MINNESOTA – K Gibson (R) vs KANSAS CITY – J Shields (R)
Game Date: Tuesday,July 29 2014 7:10 PM
Last Game: win 3 – 4 vs Chicago White Sox
Current Game: Kansas City Royals
Next Game: At KANSAS CITY
Stats & Trends: MINNESOTA vs. KANSAS CITY
PVI Rating on Winning: 45.19%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 48.45%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 44.9%
Streaks: 1 SU Win – 2 Under
Road Teams % of winning this game: 44%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 53%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.83
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 4.52

 

Road Team
(MINNESOTA)
When MINNESOTA is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When MINNESOTA is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 8 5-7 99-138 41.72 7-3-2 99-119-19 42.3
vs Division opponent 8-11 309-368 43.88 11-8-0 305-323-49 46.77
vs Conference opponent 10-12 318-394 45.06 7-13-2 283-375-54 61
Playing in the month of July 5-2 156-211 56.97 3-4-0 152-191-24 56.42
Playing on Tuesday 4-4 113-147 46.73 4-4-0 112-131-17 51.96
Played as road Underdog 23-28 489-706 43.01 24-24-3 509-606-80 52.18
After a Division Game 6-12 302-361 39.44 12-6-0 306-311-46 41.87
After a Conference Game 11-13 333-416 45.15 8-13-3 298-397-54 59.51
vs AL CENTRAL Division Opponent 8-11 122-150 43.48 11-8-0 131-132-9 46.15
vs AL Conference Opponent 18-23 347-446 43.83 18-21-2 331-422-40 54.95
Coming off vs AL CENTRAL Division Opponent 6-12 135-151 40.27 12-6-0 131-147-8 43.11
Coming off vs American Conference Opponent 19-23 360-448 44.9 18-21-3 338-424-46 54.75
Coming off 2 under 5-1 99-120 64.27 3-2-1 83-120-16 49.56
Coming off a win 9-11 339-392 45.69 10-8-2 349-334-48 46.67
Coming off a Home Win as a Favorite 1-1 46-42 51.14 1-1-0 42-43-3 50.3
With 1 days off 2-4 71-89 38.86 5-1-0 69-81-10 35.34
During a night game 12-15 503-633 44.36 7-18-2 495-562-79 62.59
Coming off a 10 home stand 1-1 14-13 50.93 0-2-0 13-14-0 75.93
Coming off a 1 runs win 0-4 86-111 21.83 3-1-0 96-87-14 36.27
Coming off a score 4 runs FOR in last game 5-3 105-117 54.9 1-6-1 99-113-10 69.51
Coming off a score 3 runs AGAINST in last game 4-1 95-108 63.4 4-1-0 85-103-15 37.4
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 11-10 290-351 48.81 9-9-3 270-318-53 52.04
vs KANSAS CITY (since 1996) 83-61 26-26 53.82 70-68-6 25-26-1 50.13
Coming off a Win over AL Central division opponent 1-6 71-61 34.04 6-1-0 66-61-5 31.16
Coming off a day game 13-11 269-334 49.39 11-12-1 260-309-34 53.24
Coming off a series loss 2-10 141-226 27.55 4-8-0 159-179-29 59.82
Last 30 days 6-2 168-227 58.77 3-5-0 160-209-26 59.57
Last 45 days 6-12 273-348 38.65 6-11-1 252-325-44 60.52
Last 60 days 12-15 377-463 44.66 8-16-3 349-435-56 61.08
Last 90 days 17-22 571-712 44.05 13-23-3 536-655-92 59.45
Vs. Right handed pitchers 14-20 546-695 42.59 14-17-3 529-629-83 54.58
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 21-23 555-697 46.03 20-21-3 516-650-86 53.49
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 6-7 247-283 46.38 6-6-1 239-259-32 51.01

 

KANSAS CITYTeam Name: KANSAS CITY(Home Team)
Money Line: KANSAS CITY -175 vs MINNESOTA +160
Spread Line: KANSAS CITY -1.5 +115 —– MINNESOTA +1.5 -135
O/U: KANSAS CITY 8 -120 —– MINNESOTA 8 +100
Pitchers: KANSAS CITY – J Shields (R) vs MINNESOTA – K Gibson (R)
Game Date: Tuesday,July 29 2014 7:10 PM
Last Game: lost 10 – 3 vs Cleveland Indians
Current Game: Minnesota Twins
Next Game: Vs. MINNESOTA
Stats & Trends: KANSAS CITY vs. MINNESOTA
PVI Rating on Winning: 50.96%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 51.52%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 40.81%
Streaks: 1 SU Lost – 3 Over
Home Teams % of winning this game: 48%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 48%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.94
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.98

 

Home Team
(KANSAS CITY)
When KANSAS CITY is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When KANSAS CITY is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 8 6-8 127-110 48.23 5-9-0 99-119-19 59.44
vs Division opponent 11-11 315-362 48.27 13-9-0 305-323-49 46.17
vs Conference opponent 10-10 347-365 49.37 8-12-0 283-375-54 58.5
Playing in the month of July 4-4 183-184 49.93 4-4-0 152-191-24 52.85
Playing on Tuesday 3-4 111-149 42.78 3-4-0 112-131-17 55.53
Played as home Favorite 20-18 607-551 52.53 19-19-0 509-571-78 51.44
After a Division Game 10-9 315-365 49.48 10-9-0 295-333-52 50.2
After a Conference Game 11-9 373-371 52.57 9-11-0 296-395-53 56.08
vs AL CENTRAL Division Opponent 11-11 137-143 49.47 13-9-0 126-137-17 46.5
vs AL Conference Opponent 21-21 364-431 47.9 21-21-0 353-402-40 51.63
Coming off vs AL CENTRAL Division Opponent 10-9 120-143 49.13 10-9-0 115-135-13 50.69
Coming off vs American Conference Opponent 21-20 355-417 48.6 22-19-0 335-399-38 50.35
Coming off 3 over 1-1 39-42 49.08 1-1-0 33-40-8 52.4
Coming off a lost 12-14 452-503 46.74 15-11-0 410-480-65 48.12
Coming off a Home Lost as a Favorite 7-8 223-237 47.58 7-8-0 206-232-22 53.15
With 1 days off 3-0 81-75 75.96 2-1-0 67-77-12 43.4
During a night game 15-19 525-611 45.17 16-17-1 495-562-79 52.35
Coming off a 4 home stand (since 1996) 7-6 5-11 42.55 6-6-1 5-11-0 59.38
Coming off a 7 runs loss 0-2 11-15 21.16 1-1-0 11-13-2 52.09
Coming off a score 3 runs FOR in last game 0-4 93-121 21.73 2-2-0 90-105-19 51.93
Coming off a score 10 runs AGAINST in last game (since 1996) 16-35 12-9 44.26 24-25-2 11-9-1 48.01
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 7-8 355-370 47.82 10-5-0 307-362-56 43.72
vs MINNESOTA (since 1996) 61-83 28-23 48.63 70-68-6 24-24-3 49.64
Coming off a Lost over AL Central division opponent 4-6 63-76 42.66 5-5-0 57-75-7 53.41
Coming off a day game 8-8 268-295 48.8 8-8-0 231-295-37 53.04
Coming off a series win 2-3 96-89 45.95 5-0-0 75-97-13 28.2
Last 30 days 5-4 195-200 52.47 5-4-0 160-209-26 50.54
Last 45 days 7-10 298-323 44.59 9-8-0 252-325-44 51.7
Last 60 days 12-13 400-440 47.81 11-13-1 349-435-56 54.83
Last 90 days 18-24 611-672 45.24 20-21-1 536-655-92 53.11
Vs. Right handed pitchers 20-18 596-677 49.73 21-16-1 555-636-82 48.32
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 16-17 573-664 47.4 16-16-1 508-649-80 53.05
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 8-9 321-375 46.59 9-8-0 283-367-46 51.76

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