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B.C. Lions vs Calgary Stampeders – Preview for August 1st, 2014

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British Columbia Lions
British Columbia Lions 
O/U :45.5

18.02

Vs.

Date: 2014-08-01
Time: 21:05:00

Generated from 11 Previous Games

Calgary Stampeders
Calgary Stampeders
SIDE :4.5

27.54 = 45.56

 

Pick: BC Lions +4.5 (1/2 unit max.)

 

Have you ever heard of an ATS monster? Well we thought we had until we found this little diddy regarding the Lions’ chances tonight.

ATS MATCHUPS

Positional consideration to SUPPORT the BCL pick:

 

When BRITISH COLUMBIA played as Road Underdog- Vs Western Division 19-10-1
When BRITISH COLUMBIA played as Road Team- Vs Western Division 24-25-1
When BRITISH COLUMBIA played as Road Underdog- With a Spread between 4 and 7.5 17-7-1
When BRITISH COLUMBIA played as Road Team- With a Spread between 4 and 7.5 22-12-1
When BRITISH COLUMBIA played as Home or Away Team- With a Spread between 4 and 7.5 27-17-1
When BRITISH COLUMBIA team played as Road team as a Underdog -With 6 day off – Coming off a Home loss as a Favorite 9-1-0
When BRITISH COLUMBIA team played as a Road team – Coming off a Home loss as a Favorite 22-9-0
When BRITISH COLUMBIA team played as a Road team -During the month of August -During Week 4 to 8 – Allowed score 21 points or more against 11-2-0
When BRITISH COLUMBIA team played as a 3.5 to 6.5 Underdog – Allowed score 21 points or more against 9-4-0
When BRITISH COLUMBIA team played as Road team as a Underdog -Before a non conference game -Before a non division game 27-13-0
When BRITISH COLUMBIA team played as Road team as a Underdog -Before a non division game – After a non division game 7-3-0
When BRITISH COLUMBIA team played as a Road team -During the month of August -After a non conference game 11-3-0
When BRITISH COLUMBIA team played as a Road team -During Week 4 to 8 -After a non conference game 13-7-0
When BRITISH COLUMBIA team played as a 3.5 to 6.5 Road Underdog -Vs Division Opponent -After a non conference game 10-5-0
When BRITISH COLUMBIA team played as a 3.5 to 6.5 Underdog -Before a non division game -Before a non conference game 9-6-0
When BRITISH COLUMBIA team played as a Road team -Playing on Friday -During the month of August 14-3-0
When ANY CFL Team played as a Road team -Before a non conference game -With 6 day off – Coming off a Loss over Winnipeg opponent – Allowed score 21 points or more against 11-7-1
When ANY CFL Team played as Road team as a Underdog -With 6 day off -Vs Division Opponent -During Week 4 to 8 – Coming off a 2 game Home stand 8-5-0
When ANY CFL Team played as Road team as a Underdog -With 6 day off -Before a non conference game – Allowed score 21 points or more against – Coming off a Loss over Winnipeg opponent 11-6-1
When ANY CFL Team played as a Road team -During Week 4 to 8 -During the month of August -Playing on Friday – Coming off a Score 21 – 24 AGAINST in last game 9-6-0
When BRITISH COLUMBIA Played as road team as a Underdog – During Last 7 Years – With SU Record of 2 Win 1 Lost in L3G 10 – 4 – 1

 

When CALGARY played as Home Team- With a Spread between 4 and 7.5 8-15-2
When ANY CFL Team played as a -3.5 to -6.5 Home Favorite -After a conference game -Before a non division game – Coming off a game scored 24 points or more – Allowed scored 24 points or less against 4-8-0
When ANY CFL Team played as a -3.5 to -6.5 Favorite -Before a non conference game – Coming off a game scored 24 points or more – Coming off a Road win as a Favorite – Allowed scored 24 points or less against 3-9-0
When ANY CFL Team played as a -3.5 to -6.5 Home Favorite -After a division game -Before a non conference game – Allowed scored 24 points or less against – Coming off a Road win as a Favorite 4-8-0

 

 

Positional consideration to THREATEN the BCL pick:

When CALGARY team played as Home team as a Favorite -Playing on Friday -During Week 4 to 8 6-4-0
When CALGARY team played as Home team as a Favorite -During Week 4 to 8 -During the month of August 12-8-0
When CALGARY team played as a -3.5 to -6.5 Home Favorite -After a division game -Before a non division game 9-6-0
When CALGARY team played as a -3.5 to -6.5 Home Favorite -After a division game -Before a non conference game 9-6-0
When CALGARY team played as Home team as a Favorite -After a division game -Playing on Friday 12-6-0
When ANY CFL Team played as a Home team -Before a non division game – vs. oppenent with a 31% to 40% winning % – Allowed scored 24 points or less against – Coming off a 1 ATS win 11-7-0

 

When ANY CFL Team played as Road team as a Underdog -Before a non conference game – Coming off a Home loss as a Favorite – Allowed score 21 points or more against – Coming off a Score 21 – 24 AGAINST in last game 4-8-0
When ANY CFL Team played as Road team as a Underdog – After a non division game -Before a non division game -During Week 4 to 8 – Allowed score 21 points or more against – Coming off a Home loss as a Favorite 4-9-1

 

The last time I saw that many blue stars I fell from a story and landed my lower mandible on ice. (at least the ice counteracted the swelling as I lay there listening to the high pitched “whirrrr” for a few minutes…)

This is total and absolute historical positional dominance. The Lions love to play football in this spot. The Lions are not without chances to cover the spread.

With that said, we are seeing some threatening market positioning as well that is of some concern, namely, there is significant action placed with the Stamps today indicating some last minute sharp $$$.

Nonetheless, we are comfortable with the BC Lions’ chances considering they’ve been given +4.5 points.

  • This assessment is only valid if the line stays at +4.5 or moves to +4, +3.5 etc.
  • If the line touches back to +5 by gametime, then we will likely call off all bets.

(We’ll gladly outline the mechanics on this point in the comments section if there is interest.)

 

ATS RAYMOND REPORT

BRITISH COLUMBIATeam Name: BRITISH COLUMBIA(Road Team)
Line: BRITISH COLUMBIA +4.5 —– CALGARY -4.5
O/U: BRITISH COLUMBIA 45.5 (OVER -110) —– CALGARY 45.5 (UNDER -110)
Game Date: Friday , August 01 2014 9:05 PM
Last Game: lost 23 – 6 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Current Game: Calgary Stampeders
Next Game: Vs. HAMILTON
Stats & Trends: BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. CALGARY
PVI Rating on Winning: 46.67%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 0%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 52%
Streaks: 1 SU Lost – 1 ATS Lost – 5 Under
Road Teams % covering the spread: 53%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 60%
Road Teams Predicted Points For: 20.93
Road Teams Predicted Points Against: 17.17

 

Road Team
(BRITISH COLUMBIA)
When BRITISH COLUMBIA is a Road Team When Any CFL Team is a Road Team Differential % When BRITISH COLUMBIA is a Road Team,the O/U When Any CFL Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Last 3 season Last 3 season Differential % Last 3 season Last 3 season Differential %
ATS ATS O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 45.50 (since 1996) 0-0-0 1-0-0 0.5 0-0-0 1-0-0 0
vs Division opponent 9-8-1 80-60-3 0.53 4-14-0 62-80-1 0.67
vs Conference opponent 9-8-1 80-60-3 0.53 4-14-0 62-80-1 0.67
Playing in the month of August (since 1996) 25-8-0 22-16-0 0.67 11-21-1 18-20-0 0.59
Playing on Friday 4-6-0 46-32-0 0.49 5-5-0 44-34-0 0.47
Played as Road Underdog 14-16-1 136-117-4 0.49 10-21-0 115-140-2 0.61
After a Non-Division Game 6-5-0 58-48-0 0.55 2-9-0 46-60-0 0.69
After a Non-Conference Game 6-5-0 58-48-0 0.55 2-9-0 46-60-0 0.69
Before a Non-Division Game 6-7-0 54-49-0 0.49 5-8-0 50-53-0 0.57
Before a Non-Conference Game 6-7-0 54-49-0 0.49 5-8-0 50-53-0 0.57
vs Western Conference Opponent 14-16-1 67-56-2 0.49 10-21-0 54-69-2 0.62
Coming off 5 under (since 1996) 1-3-0 5-2-1 0.44 0-4-0 3-4-1 0.79
Coming off a lost (since 1996) 40-28-1 65-50-1 0.57 27-38-4 49-67-0 0.58
Coming off a Home Lost as a Favorite (since 1996) 22-9-0 27-20-1 0.64 15-15-1 20-28-0 0.54
With 6 days off (since 1996) 29-22-0 39-34-1 0.55 27-23-1 36-37-1 0.48
Coming off a 2 home stand (since 1996) 18-12-1 27-21-3 0.56 11-19-1 19-31-1 0.63
Before Playing HAMILTON (since 1996) 6-6-0 16-8-0 0.58 5-7-0 13-11-0 0.52
After Playing WINNIPEG (since 1996) 11-7-0 12-11-0 0.57 6-12-0 10-13-0 0.62
Coming off a 17 points loss (since 1996) 0-1-0 1-1-0 0.25 1-0-0 2-0-0 0
Coming off a score 6 points FOR in last game (since 1996) 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0
Coming off a score 23 points AGAINST in last game (since 1996) 3-2-0 2-1-0 0.63 1-4-0 2-1-0 0.57
vs CALGARY (since 1996) 17-15-0 16-14-2 0.52 12-18-2 15-16-1 0.56
Last 30 days (since 1996) 1-1-0 9-8-0 0.51 0-2-0 4-13-0 0.88
Last 45 days (since 1996) 1-1-0 10-11-0 0.49 0-2-0 5-16-0 0.88
Last 60 days (since 1996) 1-1-0 10-11-0 0.49 0-2-0 5-16-0 0.88
Last 90 days (since 1996) 1-1-0 10-11-0 0.49 0-2-0 5-16-0 0.88
Coming off a 1 ATS Lost (since 1996) 18-21-1 34-35-1 0.47 15-24-1 29-41-0 0.6
Coming off a Home ATS lost 3-7-0 51-41-1 0.42 2-8-0 37-56-0 0.7
During week 6 (since 1996) 6-2-0 6-4-0 0.68 5-2-1 5-5-0 0.39

 

 

CALGARYTeam Name: CALGARY(Home Team)
Line: CALGARY -4.5 —– BRITISH COLUMBIA +4.5
O/U: CALGARY 45.5 (UNDER -110) —– BRITISH COLUMBIA 45.5 (OVER -110)
Game Date: Friday , August 01 2014 9:05 PM
Last Game: win 26 – 22 vs Edmonton Eskimos
Current Game: British Columbia Lions
Next Game: Vs. OTTAWA
Stats & Trends: CALGARY vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
PVI Rating on Winning: 29.17%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 0%
Home Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 37.5%
Streaks: 4 SU Win – 1 ATS Win – 4 Under
Home Teams % covering the spread: 44%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 54%
Home Teams Predicted Points For: 23.27
Home Teams Predicted Points Against: 14.15

 

Home Team
(CALGARY)
When CALGARY is a Home Team When Any CFL Team is a Home Team Differential % When CALGARY is a Home Team,the O/U When Any CFL Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Last 3 season Last 3 season Differential % Last 3 season Last 3 season Differential %
ATS ATS O/U/P O/U/P
vs Division opponent 7-10-1 60-80-3 0.4 9-8-1 62-80-1 0.52
vs Conference opponent 7-10-1 60-80-3 0.4 9-8-1 62-80-1 0.52
Playing in the month of August (since 1996) 17-12-0 16-22-0 0.5 12-17-0 18-20-0 0.56
Playing on Friday 7-3-0 32-46-0 0.56 5-5-0 44-34-0 0.47
Played as Home Favorite 14-16-2 117-136-4 0.45 15-16-1 115-140-2 0.53
After a Division Game 4-7-1 57-70-3 0.39 5-6-1 55-73-2 0.56
After a Conference Game 4-7-1 57-70-3 0.39 5-6-1 55-73-2 0.56
Before a Non-Division Game (since 1996) 34-27-0 49-57-0 0.51 25-35-1 48-58-0 0.57
Before a Non-Conference Game (since 1996) 34-27-0 49-57-0 0.51 25-35-1 48-58-0 0.57
vs Western Conference Opponent 14-16-2 63-63-3 0.46 15-16-1 57-71-1 0.54
Coming off a 4 winning streak (since 1996) 1-6-1 0-10-1 0.06 3-4-1 5-5-1 0.54
Coming off 4 under (since 1996) 1-3-0 3-9-0 0.25 3-1-0 3-9-0 0.5
Coming off a win 8-13-2 54-68-2 0.39 12-10-1 49-74-1 0.53
Coming off a Road Win as a Favorite 3-6-1 14-13-1 0.4 4-5-1 13-14-1 0.54
With 7 days off (since 1996) 10-15-1 21-23-2 0.42 10-14-2 21-23-2 0.55
Coming off a 1 road stand 6-8-2 53-60-2 0.42 6-9-1 53-61-1 0.57
Before Playing CALGARY (since 1996) 5-4-0 15-15-0 0.53 5-4-0 10-20-0 0.56
After Playing EDMONTON (since 1996) 10-15-1 11-18-2 0.37 11-13-2 14-16-1 0.54
Coming off a 4 points win (since 1996) 5-1-0 2-1-0 0.75 4-2-0 2-1-0 0.33
Coming off a score 26 points FOR in last game (since 1996) 2-1-0 4-2-0 0.67 2-1-0 3-3-0 0.42
Coming off a score 22 points AGAINST in last game (since 1996) 3-1-0 1-2-0 0.54 2-2-0 1-2-0 0.58
vs BRITISH COLUMBIA (since 1996) 15-17-0 16-14-1 0.49 12-18-2 10-21-0 0.64
Last 30 days (since 1996) 0-1-0 8-9-0 0.24 0-1-0 4-13-0 0.88
Last 45 days (since 1996) 1-1-0 11-10-0 0.51 0-2-0 5-16-0 0.88
Last 60 days (since 1996) 1-1-0 11-10-0 0.51 0-2-0 5-16-0 0.88
Last 90 days (since 1996) 1-1-0 11-10-0 0.51 0-2-0 5-16-0 0.88
Coming off a 1 ATS Win 4-8-0 32-41-1 0.38 6-6-0 32-41-1 0.53
Coming off a Road ATS win 6-10-2 41-50-3 0.38 10-7-1 42-50-2 0.48
During week 6 (since 1996) 3-5-0 4-6-0 0.39 6-2-0 5-5-0 0.38
Coming off Back to Back SU Wins 5-4-2 25-26-2 0.46 7-3-1 21-31-1 0.45

 

So again, the Raymond Report is in concert with the historical ‘Matchups’ position and confirming the Lions’ chances tonight.

 

PRACTICALLY SPEAKING…

…The Lions are with all of their key players.

  • Glenn in the pocket.
  • Elimimian on coverage.
  • Philips shutting down the midfield.
  • Harris on the rush.
  • Arakgi tackling everything in sight on special teams.
  • Logan running back the returns.
  • And Mr. Kick himself, McCallum.

 

The Stampeders, likewise, should have their main hitters on tonight without injury:

  • Mitchell in the pocket.
  • Smith on coverage.
  • Bennet shutting down the midfield.
  • Hughs head-hunting on the blitz.
  • Sanders running the ball back.

 

 

At the very least, this is the CFL where anything does and can happen.

So no matter what, I think we’re in for a real treat tonight.

Game starts at 10PM EST, and I, for one, will-not-be-a-minute-late!

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