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Kansas City Royals (Vargas) vs. Oakland A’s (Lester) – Preview August 2nd, 2014

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Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals 
O/U :72.58
Vs.Date: 2014-08-02
Time: 15:05:00

Generated from 29 Previous Games

Oakland Athletics
Oakland Athletics
SIDE :-160
5.11 = 7.69

 

Pick: Oakland A’s -160 (1/2 unit maximum)

 

Why only a half unit? Because when we see late ML moves with the severe minority against a clear favourite, bad things can happen.

That said, Oakland has scored 1 run in their last 2 games. This could be where the perceived value on the KC pick stems from. The only question is, will the Oakland bats come up dry again today?

OAKLAND scoring only 1 against Dallas Keuchel on the 31st? OK. Dallas threw 0.00ERA vs Miami the game before. Keuchel is hot. As for Oakland taking ZERO runs off a pitcher the likes of Jeremy Guthrie? We can’t explain that but to think their bats are cool.

  • When Oakland has scored 0 runs in the last game, in the 2014 season, the are 2-3 the following game.
  • When Oakland has lost the 1st game of a series, by a difference of 1 run, OAKLAND is 1-4 the following game.

 

So where do we get off taking Oakland as a pick?

  • They have cool bats.
  • Scoring no runs in their last game doesn’t motivate them in the next game.
  • Losing by 1 doesn’t motivate them in their next game.
  • Playing at home doesn’t seem to matter either.

 

Last night we though the Lions were an ATS monster, well Oakland is sitting in the position of one of the strongest ML monsters that we’ve seen this year so far, by far.

Let’s take a look:

 

ATS MATCHUPS

Historical stats to SUPPORT Oakland in this position:

We are scuffling through our records to see if a comparable ATS MATCHUP case has been made, and we are having trouble locating any instances where a team was as positionally dominant as Oakland is here today.

When OAKLAND played as Favourite- With a spread between 200 and 220 74-26-0
When LESTER JON ‘s Team played as Home Favourite- With a spread between 200 and 220 10-3-0
When OAKLAND played as Favourite- Vs AL Central Division 35-13-2
When OAKLAND played as Home Favourite- With a spread between 200 and 220 36-14-0
When OAKLAND played as Favourite- in the month of August 60-40-0
When OAKLAND played as Home Team- With a spread between 200 and 220 21-9-0
When LESTER JON ‘s Team played as Favourite- With a spread between 200 and 220 14-7-0
When OAKLAND team Played as Home team as a Favorite – After a non division game – During a day game – Coming off 1 under – Coming off a 2 game losing streak 9-2-0
When OAKLAND team Played as Home team as a Favorite – During a day game – Playing on Saturday – Coming off a Home loss as a Favorite – Coming off a Home loss 29-14-0
When OAKLAND team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – Vs AL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off 1 under – Coming off a 1 run lost 12-5-0
When OAKLAND team played as a Home team – Vs Conference Opponent – Playing on Saturday – Coming off a Loss vs. AL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 15-8-0
When OAKLAND team played as a Home team – Before a non division game – During a day game – Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series – Coming off a Home loss 38-20-0
When OAKLAND team Played as Home team as a Favorite – After a non division game – Vs AL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a 2 game losing streak – Coming off a Home loss 15-8-0
When OAKLAND team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a Loss vs. AL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a Home loss 22-11-0
When OAKLAND team played as a Home team – During a day game – Vs AL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a Loss vs. AL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off 1 under 18-10-0
When OAKLAND team played as a Home team – During a day game – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a Home loss as a Favorite – Coming off a Loss vs. AL CENTRAL opponent 45-20-0
When OAKLAND team Played as home team as a Favorite – After a non division game – Vs Non Division Opponent 429-245-0
When OAKLAND team Played as home team as a Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – Vs Non Division Opponent 361-230-0
When OAKLAND team played as a -200 to -220 home Favorite – During the month of August – Before a non division game 9-4-0
When OAKLAND team played as a home team – After a non division game – During a day game 265-166-0
When OAKLAND team Played as home team as a Favorite – After a non division game – During the month of August 91-48-0
When OAKLAND team played as a home team – After a conference game – During a day game 211-139-0
When OAKLAND team played as a -200 to -220 home Favorite – During a day game – Playing on Saturday 8-2-0
When OAKLAND team Played as home team as a Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – Vs. Left handed pitchers 101-59-0
When OAKLAND team Played as home team as a Favorite – After a conference game – Playing on Saturday 65-30-0
When OAKLAND team Played as home team as a Favorite – During the month of August – During a day game 41-21-0
When OAKLAND team Played as home team as a Favorite – Playing on Saturday – Vs. Left handed pitchers 39-17-0
When OAKLAND team played as a -200 to -220 home Favorite – After a non division game – Playing on Saturday 8-2-0
When OAKLAND team played as a home team – After a conference game – Playing on Saturday 80-49-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a -200 to -220 Home Favorite – Last 3 years – After a conference game – During a day game – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 16-9-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a -200 to -220 Home Favorite – Last 4 years – Playing on Saturday – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a night game 28-12-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Playing on Saturday – 2nd game of a series – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a Loss vs. AL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a Home loss 74-49-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a -200 to -220 Home Favorite – Coming off vs. American League opponent – 2nd game of a series – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Coming off 1 under 17-10-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a -200 to -220 Home Favorite – Last 2 years – After a non division game – Before a non division game – Coming off 1 under 13-4-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Coming off vs. American League opponent – Playing on Saturday – During a day game – Coming off a 2 game losing streak – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series 42-27-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a -200 to -220 Home Favorite – 2nd game of a series – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a 1 run lost – Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 20-9-0
When OAKLAND Played as a Favorite – During Last 5 Years – With 1 Under or More 139 – 75 – 0
When OAKLAND Played as home team as a Favorite – During Last 4 Years – With SU Record of 2 Win 3 Lost in L5G 49 – 22 – 0
When OAKLAND Played as a Favorite – During Last 4 Years – With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G 84 – 41 – 0
When OAKLAND Played as home team as a Favorite – During Last 2 Years – With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G 35 – 13 – 0
When OAKLAND Played as a Favorite – During Last 2 Years – With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G 45 – 20 – 0

 

When VARGAS JASON ‘s Team played as Underdog- With Total between 6 and 7 7-13-0
When KANSAS CITY team Played as Road team as a Underdog – After a non division game – Before a non division game – Coming off a Road win – Coming off a Win vs. AL WEST opponent 27-55-0
When KANSAS CITY team played as a Road team – During a day game – Before a non division game – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a Win vs. AL WEST opponent 4-16-0
When KANSAS CITY team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Playing on Saturday – Before a non division game – Coming off a 1 run win – Coming off a Road win as a Underdog 3-7-0
When KANSAS CITY team played as a Road team – Vs Conference Opponent – Vs AL WEST opponent – Coming off 1 under – Coming off a Win vs. AL WEST opponent 7-24-0
When KANSAS CITY team played as a 180 to 200 road Underdog – During a day game – Vs. Left handed pitchers 4-8-0
When KANSAS CITY team Played as road team as a Underdog – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Before a conference game 62-121-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a 180 to 200 Road Underdog – Playing on Saturday – Vs Non Division Opponent – During the month of August – Coming off a night game 15-32-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a 180 to 200 Road Underdog – Coming off vs. American League opponent – Vs. Left handed pitchers – 2nd game of a series – Scored 1 or more runs FOR in their last game – Coming off a night game 24-64-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Vs AL WEST opponent – 2nd game of a series – Coming off a night game – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a Win vs. AL WEST opponent 44-85-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a 180 to 200 Road Underdog – After a non division game – Last 4 years – Coming off a Road win as a Underdog – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 9-34-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Road team as a Underdog – After a non division game – Last 3 years – Before a non division game – Coming off 1 under – Coming off a Road win as a Underdog – Coming off a 1 run win 24-45-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a 180 to 200 Road Underdog – Vs AL Conference – Vs Non Division Opponent – 2nd game of a series – Coming off 1 under – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a night game 6-17-0
When KANSAS CITY Played as road team as a Underdog – During Last 2 Years – Won Last Game by 1 Runs or Less 7 – 14 – 0

Historical stats to THREATEN Oakland in this position:

*NONE*

 

RAYMOND REPORT

KANSAS CITYTeam Name: KANSAS CITY(Road Team)
Money Line: KANSAS CITY +190 vs OAKLAND -210
Spread Line: KANSAS CITY +1.5 -115 —– OAKLAND -1.5 -105
O/U: KANSAS CITY 7 -115 —– OAKLAND 7 -105
Pitchers: KANSAS CITY – J Vargas (L) vs OAKLAND – J Lester (L)
Game Date: Saturday,August 02 2014 3:05 PM
Last Game: win 1 – 0 vs Oakland Athletics
Current Game: Oakland Athletics
Next Game: At OAKLAND
Stats & Trends: KANSAS CITY vs. OAKLAND
PVI Rating on Winning: 51.85%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 52.43%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 36.74%
Streaks: 3 SU Win – 1 Under
Road Teams % of winning this game: 48%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 55%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.78
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.61

 

Road Team
(KANSAS CITY)
When KANSAS CITY is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When KANSAS CITY is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7 7-8 158-184 46.44 6-5-4 145-148-49 47.98
vs Non-Division opponent 17-12 471-608 51.14 11-15-3 443-565-71 56.87
vs Conference opponent 10-11 333-411 46.19 7-11-3 298-391-55 58.93
Playing in the month of August 1-0 8-7 76.67 0-1-0 7-7-1 75
Playing on Saturday 2-6 124-151 35.05 5-3-0 130-134-11 44.13
Played as road Underdog 16-19 506-727 43.38 12-21-2 525-627-81 59.04
After a Non-Division Game 14-11 469-607 49.8 10-13-2 434-569-73 56.63
After a Conference Game 11-11 349-434 47.29 7-12-3 314-414-55 60.02
vs AL CENTRAL Division Opponent 12-14 127-157 45.44 12-13-1 138-137-9 50.91
vs AL Conference Opponent 22-25 359-459 45.35 19-24-4 341-437-40 55.99
Coming off vs AL WEST Division Opponent 4-2 108-144 54.77 2-3-1 96-135-21 59.22
Coming off vs American Conference Opponent 23-24 374-460 46.89 19-25-3 350-438-46 56.2
Coming off a 3 winning streak 1-0 43-53 72.4 1-0-0 49-42-5 23.08
Coming off 1 under 10-6 189-252 52.68 7-7-2 173-233-35 53.7
Coming off a win 15-13 351-407 49.94 15-11-2 360-349-49 45.77
Coming off a Road Win as a Underdog 6-5 177-222 49.46 6-4-1 190-185-24 44.67
During a day game 8-12 264-326 42.38 7-12-1 241-309-40 59.67
Coming off a 1 runs win 1-1 88-119 46.26 0-2-0 99-94-14 74.35
Coming off a score 1 runs FOR in last game 5-4 80-111 48.72 3-6-0 71-106-14 63.28
vs. opponent with a 61% to 70% winning % 1-0 49-68 70.94 0-1-0 49-63-5 78.13
vs OAKLAND (since 1996) 33-47 18-36 37.29 32-44-4 26-26-2 53.95
Coming off a Win over AL WEST division opponent 1-2 44-46 41.11 0-3-0 43-46-1 75.85
Coming off a game that went under 6-7 193-214 46.79 5-8-0 185-194-28 56.37
Coming off a night game 19-14 505-636 50.92 15-15-3 481-575-85 52.23
Coming off a game 1 of a series 10-7 248-259 53.87 9-6-2 230-248-29 45.94
Coming off a win in game 1 of a series 5-4 110-108 53.01 6-2-1 106-102-10 37.02
Last 30 days 6-7 173-216 45.31 4-8-1 165-202-22 60.86
Last 45 days 9-9 275-345 47.18 5-12-1 249-330-41 63.79
Last 60 days 15-9 379-462 53.79 11-12-1 349-439-53 53.94
Last 90 days 23-16 575-705 51.95 17-19-3 532-659-89 54.06
Vs. Left handed pitchers 8-7 223-266 49.47 6-8-1 208-245-36 55.61
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 20-16 576-714 50.11 13-21-2 533-670-87 58.73
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 11-10 255-297 49.29 12-8-1 248-271-33 46.11

 

OAKLANDTeam Name: OAKLAND(Home Team)
Money Line: OAKLAND -210 vs KANSAS CITY +190
Spread Line: OAKLAND -1.5 -105 —– KANSAS CITY +1.5 -115
O/U: OAKLAND 7 -105 —– KANSAS CITY 7 -115
Pitchers: OAKLAND – J Lester (L) vs KANSAS CITY – J Vargas (L)
Game Date: Saturday,August 02 2014 3:05 PM
Last Game: lost 1 – 0 vs Kansas City Royals
Current Game: Kansas City Royals
Next Game: Vs. KANSAS CITY
Stats & Trends: OAKLAND vs. KANSAS CITY
PVI Rating on Winning: 60.75%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 47.47%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 46.94%
Streaks: 2 SU Lost – 1 Under
Home Teams % of winning this game: 55%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 55%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 4.69
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.51

 

Home Team
(OAKLAND)
When OAKLAND is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When OAKLAND is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7 8-7 177-165 52.54 6-7-2 145-148-49 52.18
vs Non-Division opponent 25-12 518-561 57.79 16-19-2 443-565-71 55.17
vs Conference opponent 15-11 364-380 53.31 11-15-0 298-391-55 57.22
Playing in the month of August 0-1 7-8 23.34 0-1-0 7-7-1 75
Playing on Saturday 6-2 138-137 62.59 2-5-1 130-134-11 61.1
Played as home Favorite 32-18 628-568 58.26 23-25-2 525-592-79 52.54
After a Non-Division Game 23-13 507-550 55.93 16-18-2 447-543-67 53.9
After a Conference Game 17-10 391-384 56.71 12-15-0 310-411-54 56.28
vs AL CENTRAL Division Opponent 4-8 141-147 41.15 6-6-0 131-140-17 50.83
vs AL Conference Opponent 23-20 377-444 49.71 21-22-0 366-415-40 52.15
Coming off vs AL CENTRAL Division Opponent 5-6 125-146 45.79 5-6-0 119-139-13 54.22
Coming off vs American Conference Opponent 25-18 369-428 52.22 21-22-0 347-412-38 52.72
Coming off a 2 losing streak 1-2 89-98 40.46 1-2-0 79-99-9 61.15
Coming off 1 under 8-3 207-244 59.32 4-7-0 176-245-30 60.92
Coming off a lost 12-10 468-513 51.13 11-11-0 418-497-66 52.16
Coming off a Home Lost as a Favorite 8-7 232-242 51.14 7-8-0 210-242-22 53.44
During a day game 13-7 291-299 57.16 10-10-0 241-309-40 53.09
Coming off a 1 runs loss 4-2 106-97 59.45 4-2-0 90-103-10 43.35
Coming off a score 1 runs AGAINST in last game 5-4 91-89 53.06 6-3-0 77-87-16 43.19
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 20-9 304-345 57.91 16-11-2 272-338-39 48.08
vs KANSAS CITY (since 1996) 47-33 25-30 52.1 32-44-4 23-28-4 56.4
Coming off a Lost over AL Central division opponent 4-3 66-77 51.65 2-5-0 58-78-7 64.39
Coming off a game that went under 7-5 185-226 51.67 8-3-1 189-198-24 39.22
Coming off a night game 23-13 557-621 55.59 17-17-2 509-587-82 51.78
Coming off a game 1 of a series 10-6 235-273 54.38 8-6-2 230-249-29 47.42
Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series 3-3 109-138 47.07 4-2-0 115-120-12 42.2
Last 30 days 10-3 192-197 63.14 5-7-1 165-202-22 56.69
Last 45 days 14-4 296-324 62.76 6-11-1 249-330-41 60.85
Last 60 days 17-6 401-440 60.8 9-13-1 349-439-53 57.4
Last 90 days 28-12 611-669 58.87 21-17-2 532-659-89 50.04
Vs. Left handed pitchers 10-5 226-237 57.74 8-6-1 183-243-37 49.95
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 20-11 597-686 55.53 17-13-1 529-673-81 49.66
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 7-7 330-382 48.18 6-8-0 287-378-47 56.99

 

 

At the end of the day, we think that Oakland will edge out the win here.

We suspect that people trying to game the OAK RL might have problems cashing, and we also think that people trying to snipe at the KC underdog might also have their work cut out for them.

For a team like Oakland to have:

  • a very stron Forecast rating
  • a lethal Matchups assessment
  • a strong advantage on the Raymond Report

 

…means that there is no regretting this bet. However. The only responsible thing to do, given the market move and given Oakland’s cool bats, is to play a half unit. These factors deserve respect and our bottom line with thank us for it over the long run.

This game promises to be extremely entertaining and will be worth the watch!

 

Bonus Considerations:

  • Most of the Royals’ power-hitters are Left-Handed. Umpire Toby Basner gives the pitchers tons of space off the outside vs LHH.
  • Lester uses the whole zone to pitch. Vargas pitches his majority down and away. It happens that besides being wide against Left-Handed hitters (giving the pitchers an advantage vs LHH), be also has a SZ that is short and skinny off the bottom-outside vs RHH hitters.

 

 

 

 

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