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Pittsburgh Pirates (Liriano) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Cahill) – Preview August 3rd, 2014

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Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 
SIDE :-165

5.13

Vs.

Date: 2014-08-03
Time: 15:10:00

Generated from 34 Previous Games

Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
O/U :8

4.14 = 9.27

 

Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates -165 (1/2 unit max)

 

The Pittsburgh ML has done nothing but steam with the Pirates.

To us, although the value is a little bit chiseled in terms of weak odds, the amount of action on Pittsburgh makes us suspect that the Pirates are where the sharps are placing their bets today.

When betting chalk plays, less is always more so a 1/2 unit should do the trick on this one.

 

THE PRIMARY CONSIDERATION:

Today’s most relevant consideration is that of the ‘hot dog’. We spoke about it in depth through the blogs in April, and today this theme is definitely applicable.

Let’s look at it…

Pittsburgh’s track record of late:

Won 7-5 @ -115 < – – – As chalk, -115 is normal.
Won 5-0 @ +145 < – – – As a big underdog, +145 is OUTSTANDING.
Won 3-1 @ +105  < – – – As a dog, 3-1 is VERY GOOD.
Lost 5-7 @+105 < – – As a dog, 5-7 is normal.
Lost 4-7 -130 < – – As chalk, 4-7 is POOR.
Won 9-4 -120 < – – As low chalk, 9-4 is OUTSTANDING.
Won 8-3 -125 < – – As low chalk, 8-3 is OUTSTANDING.

 

Arizona’s track record of late:

Lost 2-4 @ -120 As low chalk, 2-4 is POOR.
Won 2-1 @ +130 As a dog, 2-1 is VERY GOOD.
Lost 0-3 @ +120 As a small dog, 0-3 is SLIGHTLY POOR.
Won 5-4 @ -110 At PK, 5-4 is on par and normal.
Won 7-4 @ +120 As a small dog, 7-4 is OUTSTANDING.
Lost 4-9 @ +110 As a small dog, 4-9 is POOR.
Lost 3-8 @ +115 As a small dog, 3-8 is POOR.

 

  • Pittsburgh is a hot dog and winning/near winning many contests as book-odd dogs.
  • Arizona is playing below their own par.

This translates to “winning mojo”.

Winning mojo is when a team seems to always be winning no matter what happens. They’ll have less hits but more runs. More errors but more runs. Less LOB than the other team. etc etc.

Whatever “it” is, it’s winning mojo and the Pirates have it right now. I suspect it’s the reason we see what looks like sharp investment on the Pittsburgh line.

Arizona won the first game of this series, so they are not able to access any “avoid the sweep” mentality that we all know tends to help teams win that final game in a series.

All signs are “go” for the Pirates.

 

ATS FORECAST

Forecast has the Pirates ahead by +0.99 points which is a substantial indication.

 

ATS RAYMOND REPORT

The report shows Pittsburgh with a slight edge, but the Diamondbacks looks like they’re way behind the league average in this position.

PITTSBURGHTeam Name: PITTSBURGH(Road Team)
Money Line: PITTSBURGH -152 vs ARIZONA +141
Spread Line: PITTSBURGH -1.5 +105 —– ARIZONA +1.5 -125
O/U: PITTSBURGH 8.5 -105 —– ARIZONA 8.5 -115
Pitchers: PITTSBURGH – F Liriano (L) vs ARIZONA – T Cahill (R)
Game Date: Sunday,August 03 2014 3:10 PM
Last Game: win 8 – 3 vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Current Game: Arizona Diamondbacks
Next Game: Vs. MIAMI
Stats & Trends: PITTSBURGH vs. ARIZONA
PVI Rating on Winning: 53.21%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 51.46%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 32.65%
Streaks: 2 SU Win – 4 Over
Road Teams % of winning this game: 46%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 52%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 4.35
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 4.07

 

Road Team
(PITTSBURGH)
When PITTSBURGH is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When PITTSBURGH is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 8.5 1-8 128-145 29 3-6-0 124-149-0 60.63
vs Non-Division opponent 16-17 473-617 45.94 15-18-0 449-569-72 55.22
vs Conference opponent 13-9 335-418 51.79 12-10-0 302-395-56 51.06
Playing in the month of August 2-0 12-18 70 2-0-0 17-11-2 19.65
Playing on Sunday 4-5 125-143 45.54 3-6-0 105-142-21 62.08
Played as road Favorite 10-8 285-259 53.98 11-7-0 234-271-39 46.28
After a Non-Division Game 14-16 471-616 45 13-17-0 440-573-74 56.62
After a Conference Game 14-11 351-441 50.16 13-12-0 318-418-56 52.4
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 8-17 156-203 37.73 11-13-1 157-178-24 53.65
vs NL Conference Opponent 21-26 432-531 44.77 23-23-1 419-463-81 51.25
Coming off vs NL WEST Division Opponent 9-6 130-154 52.89 8-7-0 132-130-22 48.15
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 22-28 409-522 43.97 24-25-1 402-455-74 52.06
Coming off a 2 winning streak 4-3 96-103 52.69 4-3-0 97-93-9 45.91
Coming off 4 over (since 1996) 16-19 17-17 47.86 13-21-1 14-17-3 58.3
Coming off a win 12-15 352-414 45.2 13-14-0 365-351-50 50.44
Coming off a Road Win as a Favorite 3-5 112-127 42.18 2-6-0 109-110-20 62.62
During a day game 7-13 265-327 39.88 7-13-0 243-309-40 60.49
Coming off a 9 road trip 0-1 9-19 16.07 0-1-0 10-17-1 81.48
Coming off a 5 runs win 2-2 36-45 47.22 1-3-0 35-39-7 63.85
Coming off a score 8 runs FOR in last game 2-1 27-32 56.22 2-1-0 38-18-3 32.74
Coming off a score 3 runs AGAINST in last game 4-3 100-115 51.83 2-5-0 90-110-15 63.22
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 9-11 336-425 44.58 9-11-0 322-395-44 55.05
vs ARIZONA (since 1996) 24-35 35-22 51.04 29-27-3 27-26-4 48.64
Coming off a Win over NL WEST division opponent 6-4 65-83 51.96 4-6-0 72-59-17 52.52
Coming off a night game 17-22 509-647 43.81 19-19-1 491-579-86 52.06
Coming off a series win 4-2 58-69 56.17 4-1-1 68-51-8 31.43
Last 30 days 7-9 172-223 43.65 10-6-0 170-202-23 45.9
Last 45 days 11-11 273-346 47.05 13-9-0 253-325-41 48.57
Last 60 days 13-13 374-465 47.29 15-11-0 353-433-53 48.7
Last 90 days 21-21 569-710 47.25 20-21-1 536-654-89 53.09
Vs. Right handed pitchers 16-29 571-724 39.83 21-23-1 556-655-84 53.18
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 15-25 577-722 40.96 14-25-1 538-673-88 59.84
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 8-12 255-303 42.85 12-8-0 252-272-34 45.96

 

 

ARIZONATeam Name: ARIZONA(Home Team)
Money Line: ARIZONA +141 vs PITTSBURGH -152
Spread Line: ARIZONA +1.5 -125 —– PITTSBURGH -1.5 +105
O/U: ARIZONA 8.5 -115 —– PITTSBURGH 8.5 -105
Pitchers: ARIZONA – T Cahill (R) vs PITTSBURGH – F Liriano (L)
Game Date: Sunday,August 03 2014 3:10 PM
Last Game: lost 8 – 3 vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Current Game: Pittsburgh Pirates
Next Game: Vs. KANSAS CITY
Stats & Trends: ARIZONA vs. PITTSBURGH
PVI Rating on Winning: 43.24%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 51.43%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 57.14%
Streaks: 2 SU Lost – 4 Over
Home Teams % of winning this game: 46%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 46%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 4
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 4.94

 

Home Team
(ARIZONA)
When ARIZONA is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When ARIZONA is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 8.5 8-9 133-140 47.89 12-5-0 124-149-0 42
vs Non-Division opponent 15-21 527-563 45.01 16-18-2 449-569-72 54.42
vs Conference opponent 13-18 371-382 45.61 13-16-2 302-395-56 55.92
Playing in the month of August 0-2 18-12 30 2-0-0 17-11-2 19.65
Playing on Sunday 3-4 130-138 45.69 2-5-0 105-142-21 64.46
Played as home Underdog 7-18 215-366 32.51 13-11-1 234-306-41 51.25
After a Non-Division Game 14-20 516-552 44.75 14-18-2 453-547-68 55.48
After a Conference Game 14-18 398-386 47.26 13-17-2 314-415-55 56.8
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 7-9 180-178 47.02 8-8-0 155-182-21 52.01
vs NL Conference Opponent 20-32 470-490 43.71 24-24-4 394-485-81 52.59
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 7-8 186-172 49.32 6-8-1 153-179-26 55.53
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 21-30 469-499 44.82 23-24-4 406-480-82 52.62
Coming off a 2 losing streak 4-4 92-98 49.21 6-2-0 82-99-9 39.85
Coming off 4 over 0-1 14-21 20 1-0-0 15-16-4 25.81
Coming off a lost 14-18 475-514 45.89 16-13-3 423-499-67 49.48
Coming off a Home Lost as a Underdog 8-6 153-185 51.21 9-4-1 134-171-33 43.42
During a day game 5-10 292-300 41.33 4-11-0 243-309-40 64.66
Coming off a 3 home stand (since 1996) 5-1 7-5 70.83 3-2-1 4-8-0 53.34
Coming off a 5 runs loss 0-2 45-29 30.41 1-1-0 33-36-5 51.09
Coming off a score 3 runs FOR in last game 4-4 99-125 47.1 4-3-1 96-109-19 48.02
Coming off a score 8 runs AGAINST in last game 1-4 25-36 30.49 3-1-1 33-23-5 33.04
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 10-16 311-348 42.83 12-12-2 279-341-39 52.5
vs PITTSBURGH (since 1996) 35-24 30-28 55.52 29-27-3 26-31-1 51.3
Coming off a Lost over NL CENTRAL division opponent 3-4 105-88 48.63 2-5-0 84-96-13 62.38
Coming off a night game 15-25 568-625 42.56 16-21-3 519-591-83 55
Coming off a series loss 6-6 161-185 48.27 7-4-1 154-160-32 43.66
Last 30 days 7-5 199-196 54.36 8-4-0 170-202-23 43.82
Last 45 days 9-9 299-320 49.15 10-8-0 253-325-41 50.34
Last 60 days 13-13 406-433 49.2 13-13-0 353-433-53 52.55
Last 90 days 19-20 617-662 48.48 18-21-0 536-654-89 54.41
Vs. Left handed pitchers 4-9 230-238 39.96 7-6-0 187-243-38 51.33
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 13-23 606-687 41.49 15-18-3 536-675-82 55.15
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 9-12 337-383 44.84 9-10-2 292-380-48 54.59

 

ATS MATCHUPS

Matchups are reporting both teams with even chances in today’s position, historically speaking.

That said, the OVER looks very strong here…but the fact that Liriano has been pitching pure lightening as of late makes us tend to pass on this strong indication to the over.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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