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Texas Rangers (Tepesch) vs. Chicago White Sox (Sale) – Preview for Aug 6th, 2014

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Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers 
O/U :7.53.64
Vs.Date: 2014-08-06
Time: 13:10:00Generated from 84 Previous Games
Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox
SIDE :-220
4.87 = 8.51

 

Pick: OVER 7.5

 

  • The ATS Forecast gives us a +1.01 edge on Vegas.
  • The ATS Matchups shows us that this position historically has produced ‘Under’ results.
  • The ATS Raymond Report percentages gives us a 50% chance either way.
  • The ATS Raymond Report calculator (TEX: 7.65 CWS: 9.64. (+2.29 Over the total)).

But all this aside, there is one sticking point that we have as our primary consideration.

Chris Sale dominates LEFT-HANDED HITTERS.

Except for Choo, all of Texas’ hitters that are above a .700OPS and/ .275AVG are RIGHT-HANDED HITTERS:

Beltre – RHH
Rosales – RHH
Rios – RHH
Chirinos – RHH
Robertson – RHH
Choo – LHH

Our PRIMARY consideration, therefore, boils down to two facts:

  • Texas is 5.4 RPG vs Left-Handed Pitchers!

  • Chris Sale is weakest vs Right-Handed Hitters.

There is no reason that the likes of the Sox’s roster can’t conquer the 7.5 point total in and of themselves. The only point we wanted to analyze was that Vegas might be underestimating these splits that show Texas with strong chances to score runs, even against the likes of Sale.

 

 

TEXASTeam Name: TEXAS(Road Team)
Money Line: TEXAS +220 vs CHI WHITE SOX -250
Spread Line: TEXAS +1.5 +103 —– CHI WHITE SOX -1.5 -123
O/U: TEXAS 7.5 -110 —– CHI WHITE SOX 7.5 -110
Pitchers: TEXAS – N Tepesch (R) vs CHI WHITE SOX – C Sale (L)
Game Date: Wednesday,August 06 2014 1:10 PM
Last Game: win 16 – 0 vs Chicago White Sox
Current Game: Chicago White Sox
Next Game: At HOUSTON
Stats & Trends: TEXAS vs. CHI WHITE SOX
PVI Rating on Winning: 40%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 48.62%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 59.18%
Streaks: 1 SU Win – 1 Over
Road Teams % of winning this game: 40%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 53%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.54
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 4.11
Road Team
(TEXAS)
When TEXAS is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When TEXAS is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 7-6 206-230 50.55 8-5-0 218-218-0 44.23
vs Non-Division opponent 15-37 487-635 36.13 21-27-4 462-585-75 56.06
vs Conference opponent 11-24 345-428 38.03 13-20-2 310-405-58 58.63
Playing in the month of August 1-4 30-38 32.06 2-2-1 33-29-6 48.39
Playing on Wednesday 2-7 119-155 32.83 2-7-0 100-153-21 69.13
Played as road Underdog 15-34 521-749 35.82 21-26-2 544-642-84 54.73
After a Non-Division Game 15-35 487-633 36.74 21-25-4 454-588-78 55.39
After a Conference Game 12-28 364-454 37.25 14-23-3 329-430-59 59.41
vs AL WEST Division Opponent 9-10 102-156 43.45 9-7-3 96-144-18 51.88
vs AL Conference Opponent 20-34 370-474 40.44 22-27-5 354-448-42 55.48
Coming off vs AL CENTRAL Division Opponent 7-8 144-163 46.79 7-6-2 143-155-9 49.08
Coming off vs American Conference Opponent 20-38 387-472 39.77 23-29-6 363-449-47 55.54
Coming off 1 over 5-8 199-227 42.59 7-5-1 192-203-31 46.53
Coming off a win 7-13 360-422 40.52 9-9-2 373-358-51 49.49
Coming off a Road Win as a Underdog 5-6 183-231 44.83 5-4-2 200-189-25 46.52
During a day game 10-12 272-335 45.13 10-10-2 249-316-42 52.97
Coming off a 5 road trip (since 1996) 37-33 32-37 49.62 33-36-1 26-40-3 56.39
Coming off a 16 runs win (since 1996) 1-0 0-0 50 0-1-0 0-0-0 50
Coming off a score 16 runs FOR in last game (since 1996) 2-4 4-0 66.67 3-3-0 2-2-0 50
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 10-16 344-432 41.4 12-9-5 330-400-46 48.83
vs CHI WHITE SOX (since 1996) 30-42 26-32 43.25 32-37-3 29-29-0 51.81
Coming off a Win over AL Central division opponent 3-2 74-66 56.43 3-1-1 69-66-5 36.95
Coming off a game that went over 5-8 199-227 42.59 7-5-1 192-203-31 46.53
Coming off a night game 14-33 518-658 36.92 20-21-6 501-588-87 52.61
Split 1st 2 games of a series 2-8 122-171 30.82 4-6-0 120-159-14 58.5
Coming off a win in game 2 of a series 1-1 109-143 46.63 0-2-0 107-127-18 77.14
Last 30 days 3-9 171-214 34.71 3-8-1 161-200-24 64.07
Last 45 days 4-18 272-339 31.35 8-11-3 255-314-42 56.54
Last 60 days 8-23 370-463 35.12 12-16-3 346-434-53 56.39
Last 90 days 16-34 566-701 38.34 20-25-5 535-643-89 55.07
Vs. Left handed pitchers 8-12 230-271 42.96 13-5-2 216-247-38 40.57
Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher 7-10 216-266 43 9-6-2 225-224-33 44.95
Coming off win vs. Left handed pitcher 1-3 98-112 35.84 1-2-1 114-80-16 53.96
TEAM: TEXAS
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.28 4.05
Home Games Avg 3.1 4.25
Road Games Avg 3.46 3.85
Last 3 Games Avg 7.33 3
Last 5 Games Avg 4.8 4.6
Last 10 Games Avg 4.6 5.3
vs. Division Games Avg 2.92 3.78
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.31 3.93
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 3.05 4.84
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.33 4.32
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 3.15 4.38
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 3.27 3.48
After a Win Games Avg 2.91 3.91
After a Lost Games Avg 3.1 3.94
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 2.87 3.74
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 3.36 4.08
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 2.95 4.09
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 2.82 3.79
After an Over Games Avg 2.84 3.35
After an Under Games Avg 3.34 4.23
After a Push Games Avg 4.6 5.5
3.54 4.11
CHI WHITE SOXTeam Name: CHI WHITE SOX(Home Team)
Money Line: CHI WHITE SOX -250 vs TEXAS +220
Spread Line: CHI WHITE SOX -1.5 -123 —– TEXAS +1.5 +103
O/U: CHI WHITE SOX 7.5 -110 —– TEXAS 7.5 -110
Pitchers: CHI WHITE SOX – C Sale (L) vs TEXAS – N Tepesch (R)
Game Date: Wednesday,August 06 2014 1:10 PM
Last Game: lost 16 – 0 vs Texas Rangers
Current Game: Texas Rangers
Next Game: At SEATTLE
Stats & Trends: CHI WHITE SOX vs. TEXAS
PVI Rating on Winning: 48.67%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 47.27%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 53.06%
Streaks: 1 SU Lost – 1 Over
Home Teams % of winning this game: 47%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 47%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 4.36
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 5.28
Home Team
(CHI WHITE SOX)
When CHI WHITE SOX is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When CHI WHITE SOX is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 6-5 218-218 52.28 7-4-0 218-218-0 43.18
vs Non-Division opponent 17-16 544-578 50 15-18-0 462-585-75 55.21
vs Conference opponent 10-10 381-392 49.65 9-11-0 310-405-58 55.82
Playing in the month of August 2-3 37-31 47.21 4-1-0 33-29-6 33.39
Playing on Wednesday 6-3 131-143 57.24 5-4-0 100-153-21 52.46
Played as home Favorite 15-11 649-583 55.19 13-13-0 544-606-82 51.35
After a Non-Division Game 15-16 527-568 48.26 15-16-0 466-557-72 53.03
After a Conference Game 12-11 412-399 51.49 10-13-0 324-429-58 56.75
vs AL WEST Division Opponent 4-5 109-144 43.76 3-6-0 110-128-15 60.23
vs AL Conference Opponent 22-23 390-457 47.47 23-22-0 380-426-41 50.87
Coming off vs AL WEST Division Opponent 4-4 115-132 48.28 4-4-0 111-122-14 51.18
Coming off vs American Conference Opponent 21-24 384-440 46.64 22-23-0 360-423-41 52.57
Coming off 1 over 4-7 191-232 40.76 4-7-0 192-204-27 57.58
Coming off a lost 17-12 483-523 53.32 14-15-0 429-507-70 52.95
Coming off a Home Lost as a Favorite 3-4 243-246 46.28 4-3-0 217-248-24 48.1
During a day game 8-13 300-307 43.76 11-10-0 249-316-42 51.78
Coming off a 5 home stand 0-2 43-38 26.55 0-2-0 35-37-9 75.7
Coming off a score 16 runs AGAINST in last game 1-0 1-3 62.5 0-1-0 1-3-0 87.5
vs. opponent with a 31% to 40% winning % 5-7 65-72 44.56 6-6-0 55-71-11 53.18
vs TEXAS (since 1996) 42-30 36-35 54.52 32-37-3 30-34-7 53.38
Coming off a Lost over AL WEST division opponent 3-2 66-82 52.3 2-3-0 66-77-5 56.93
Coming off a game that went over 4-7 191-232 40.76 4-7-0 192-204-27 57.58
Coming off a night game 12-25 579-634 40.08 18-19-0 528-600-85 52.27
Split 1st 2 games of a series 4-4 140-153 48.89 3-5-0 121-158-14 59.57
Coming off a lost in game 2 of a series 6-5 27.28 5-6-0 27.28
Last 30 days 5-6 192-193 47.66 5-6-0 161-200-24 54.98
Last 45 days 8-10 295-316 46.36 7-11-0 255-314-42 58.15
Last 60 days 12-15 405-428 46.53 14-13-0 346-434-53 51.9
Last 90 days 19-22 613-654 47.36 18-23-0 535-643-89 55.34
Vs. Right handed pitchers 21-23 633-712 47.4 24-20-0 590-669-86 49.3
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 16-17 622-703 47.71 16-17-0 550-690-85 53.59
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 14-8 344-391 55.22 9-13-0 298-387-50 57.8
TEAM: CHI WHITE SOX
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 4.26 4.56
Home Games Avg 4.07 4.6
Road Games Avg 4.45 4.52
Last 3 Games Avg 2.67 11.67
Last 5 Games Avg 4.8 10.2
Last 10 Games Avg 5.4 7
vs. Division Games Avg 4.46 4.87
vs. Conference Games Avg 4.18 4.64
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 4.67 4.11
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.74 3.84
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 4.09 4.55
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 4.82 5.18
After a Win Games Avg 4.16 4.73
After a Lost Games Avg 4.33 4.51
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 4.5 4.15
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 5 4.25
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 3.86 5.24
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 3.48 4.84
After an Over Games Avg 4.33 4.98
After an Under Games Avg 4.05 4.16
After a Push Games Avg 6.33 4.33
4.36 5.28

 

 

 

 

 

 

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