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Milwaukee Brewers (Lohse) vs. Chicago Cubs (Wada) – Preview for August 13, 2014.

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Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers 
SIDE :-1161.75
Vs.Date: 2014-08-13
Time: 19:05:00Generated from 4 Previous Games
Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs
O/U :7.5
1 = 2.75

 

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers ML @ -116 (Full Unit)

What do we know about handicapping MLB?
We know that there are one-hundred-and-one ways to skin a bat.

Today, we intend to school all cappers out there on what some real and relevant umpire considerations look like…and the actual work and elbow grease that it takes to be effective at capping the umpire angle, and how it ties in with all the standard fare.
We see that while capping for umpires is common practice these days, we also note that we do it the best. We are far from lazy and we’ll prove it on today’s cap considerations.

We went with Clint Fagan and his Home-Away record of 5-18, instead of Gerry Davis with his19-3 home record because Milwaukee and Chicago are more on plane than New York and Baltimore. This consideration takes clandestine and insidious psychology out of the equation.

 

Look at it.

  • Baltimore is up 1 game in a 2 game series. So NYY is protecting against a sweep here today.
  • New York is a team that is currently in a NASTY cooler *however* they are also a team with a winning record. They are absolutely ‘due to win’.
  • Baltimore’s bats are so very hot, and wins have been coming so easily to them, that they are definitely in a position of over-confidence. Their natural state of mind will be to start celebrating today’s victory before the game is already played.
  • At -125, there are too many psychological holes in the Baltimore pick for it to pay in the long run.
  • ATS Matchups absolutely favours New York Yankees with dominance in this position.

 

So we’re going to leave Baltimore alone and we’re going to go with Milwaukee instead.

Considering…

Milwaukee being 4-2 L6G
Chicago marking a 3-3 L6G

Milwaukee being 1-2 L3G
Chicago marking a 2-1 L3G

…we feel that the Brewers are in a perfect spot to show focus and hone in on some game-winning gameplay in terms of the positional psychology.

 

  • Brewers are an 8-1 as road favourite when the line is between -125 and -150.

 

 

PITCHING

Lohse is throwing a 3.33 ERA all season.
Lohse is throwing a 4.25 ERA on the road.
Lohse is throwing a 5.62 ERA last 3 games.

Wada is throwing a 3.25 ERA all season.
Wada is throwing a 4.24 ERA at home.
Wada is throwing a 2.41 ERA last 3 games.

Across only 27.2 IP, Wada is marking a 0.00 ERA vs LHH, but he marks a 4.22 ERA vs RHH.

Chicago has 3 LHH that are hitting over a .275 AVG and or a +.700 OPS.
(Rizzo, Coghlan, Valbuena)

Chicago has 4 RHH that are hitting over a .275 AVG and or a +.700 OPS.
(Bonifacio, Baez, Castro, Ruggiano)

(Fantasy gamers might want to bench Rizzo for this one and double-down on Bonifacio instead.)

At the end of the day Chicago has 7 RHH anticipated, and 5 LHH anticipated to dress today so they are not short of RHH. Chicago is slightly more ‘Right’ than they are ‘Left’, so they should have chances against Wada who is extremely powerful vs LHH but not so much vs RHH.

 

 

HITTING

  • Milwaukee is 4.3 RPG all season.
  • Milwaukee is 4.4 vs LHP starters.

 

  • Chicago is 3.9 RPG all season.
  • Chicago is 3.6 RPG vs RHP starters.

 

Without putting a solid number on it, we’d guess that Milwaukee is somewhere near the top strongest 5 teams hitting vs Left Handed Starters. In other words. Wada is 0.00 ERA vs the average team, but how will he fare against this squad of Milwaukee ‘vs. LHP’ specialists?

 

 

BULLPENS

Bullpens are perfectly equal and shouldn’t factor into this pick.

 

 

ATS MATCHUPS

Stats to SUPPORT the Brewers pick:

When LOHSE KYLE ‘s Team played as Road Favourite- With a spread between 120 and 140 16-9-0
When LOHSE KYLE ‘s Team played as Home or Away Team- Vs CHICAGO CUBS 15-6-0
When MILWAUKEE played as Road Favourite- With a spread between 120 and 140 6-4-0
When MILWAUKEE played as Favourite- in the month of August 47-28-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a -120 to -140 Road Favorite – During the month of August – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Coming off vs. National League opponent – Allowed 3 runs or more AGAINST in their last game – Coming off a Loss vs. NL CENTRAL opponent 17-7-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Playing on Wednesday – Coming off vs. National League opponent – During the month of August – Coming off a 1 game loss – Coming off a lost in game 2 of a series 14-7-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Road team as a Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – Playing on Wednesday – 3rd game of a series – Allowed 3 runs or more AGAINST in their last game – Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a 1 game loss 52-14-0
When MILWAUKEE played as any home/road team – During Current Season – With 4 Under or More 6 – 4 – 0
When CHICAGO CUBS played as Underdog- With Total between 6 and 7 10-19-1
When CHICAGO CUBS played as Home or Away Team- Vs NL CENTRAL 4-11-0
When CHICAGO CUBS played as Home Team- in the month of August 3-7-0
When CHICAGO CUBS played as Home Team- With Total between 6 and 7 17-32-1
When CHICAGO CUBS team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Before a division game – Vs Division Opponent – Coming off a Home win as a Underdog – Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent 8-17-0
When CHICAGO CUBS team Played as Home team as a Underdog – During a night game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a 1 game win 3-8-0
When CHICAGO CUBS team played as a 100 to 120 Home Underdog – After a division game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a 1 game win – Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent 7-16-0
When CHICAGO CUBS team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Vs Division Opponent – Coming off a 1 game win – Coming off a Home win 12-31-0
When CHICAGO CUBS team played as a 100 to 120 Home Underdog – During a night game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a 1 game win – Coming off a Home win 4-9-0
When CHICAGO CUBS team Played as Home team as a Underdog – After a division game – During the month of August – Coming off a 1 game win – Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent 2-8-0
When CHICAGO CUBS team Played as home team as a Underdog – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Playing on Wednesday 12-30-0
When CHICAGO CUBS team played as a 100 to 120 home Underdog – Playing on Wednesday – Vs Division Opponent 2-13-0
When CHICAGO CUBS team played as a 100 to 120 home Underdog – Playing on Wednesday – Before a division game 3-12-0
When CHICAGO CUBS team Played as home team as a Underdog – During the month of August – During a night game 8-23-0
When CHICAGO CUBS team played as a 100 to 120 home Underdog – During a night game – Before a division game 9-27-0
When CHICAGO CUBS team Played as home team as a Underdog – Playing on Wednesday – During a night game 7-13-0
When CHICAGO CUBS team Played as home team as a Underdog – Vs. Right handed pitchers – During the month of August 24-52-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Underdog – Coming off vs. National League opponent – After a division game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a 5 Game Home Stand 5-12-0
When CHICAGO CUBS played as any home/road team – During Last 4 Years – Won Last Game by 3 Runs 14 – 27 – 0

 

Stats to THREATEN the Brewers pick:

*NONE*

 

 

ATS RAYMOND REPORT

Effectively even, Milwaukee with a negligible edge.

MILWAUKEETeam Name: MILWAUKEE(Road Team)
Money Line: MILWAUKEE -129 vs CHICAGO CUBS +119
Spread Line: MILWAUKEE —– CHICAGO CUBS
O/U: MILWAUKEE —– CHICAGO CUBS
Pitchers: MILWAUKEE – K Lohse (R) vs CHICAGO CUBS – T Wada (L)
Game Date: Wednesday,August 13 2014 7:05 PM
Last Game: lost 0 – 3 vs Chicago Cubs
Current Game: Chicago Cubs
Next Game: At CHICAGO CUBS
Stats & Trends: MILWAUKEE vs. CHICAGO CUBS
PVI Rating on Winning: 55%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 50.43%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 51.02%
Streaks: 1 SU Lost – 4 Under
Road Teams % of winning this game: 48%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 52%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.99
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.92

 

Road Team
(MILWAUKEE)
When MILWAUKEE is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When MILWAUKEE is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
vs Division opponent 12-13 333-392 46.97 13-12-0 329-343-53 49.52
vs Conference opponent 15-9 365-456 53.48 13-8-3 332-431-58 47.3
Playing in the month of August 2-3 71-99 40.88 2-3-0 75-84-11 56.42
Playing on Wednesday 4-4 126-163 46.8 4-3-1 109-159-21 51.1
Played as road Favorite 12-10 309-283 53.38 11-9-2 253-297-42 49.5
After a Division Game 12-13 324-386 46.82 14-11-0 329-333-48 47.15
After a Conference Game 16-10 386-483 52.98 13-10-3 350-460-59 50.14
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 12-13 170-227 45.41 13-12-0 168-203-26 51.36
vs NL Conference Opponent 27-22 467-574 49.98 26-20-3 451-502-88 48.08
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 12-13 171-215 46.15 14-11-0 162-199-25 49.56
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 27-21 440-567 49.97 24-21-3 433-492-82 49.93
Coming off 4 under 1-1 25-31 47.32 1-1-0 21-33-2 55.56
Coming off a lost 16-13 478-627 49.22 12-15-2 436-591-78 56.56
Coming off a Road Lost as a Favorite 6-3 131-130 58.43 5-4-0 96-146-19 52.39
During a night game 19-16 565-727 49.01 23-11-1 564-643-85 42.81
Coming off a 2 road trip 1-1 20-23 48.26 1-1-0 19-20-4 50.64
Coming off a 3 runs loss 0-3 58-71 22.48 1-2-0 52-69-8 61.85
Coming off a score 3 runs AGAINST in last game 5-2 111-133 58.46 4-3-0 106-123-15 48.29
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 20-13 358-447 52.54 18-14-1 340-415-50 49.36
vs CHICAGO CUBS (since 1996) 63-66 30-34 47.86 71-53-5 28-33-3 48.42
Coming off a Lost over NL CENTRAL division opponent 6-5 102-123 49.94 6-5-0 87-120-18 51.71
Coming off a night game 18-15 546-701 49.17 17-15-1 530-627-90 50.54
Split 1st 2 games of a series 5-5 128-179 45.85 4-5-1 124-168-15 56.55
Coming off a lost in game 2 of a series 3-5 18.75 2-4-2 33.34
Last 30 days 4-7 163-210 40.03 4-7-0 153-197-23 59.97
Last 45 days 5-11 259-347 37 5-11-0 254-315-37 62.06
Last 60 days 11-12 364-468 45.79 9-13-1 346-431-55 57.28
Last 90 days 20-21 560-707 46.49 18-20-3 534-649-84 53.75
Vs. Left handed pitchers 9-5 243-287 55.07 6-6-2 223-267-40 52.25
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 29-25 617-783 48.89 27-24-3 579-726-95 51.35
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 14-9 356-443 52.72 11-10-2 311-434-54 52.94
TEAM: MILWAUKEE
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 4.26 3.98
Home Games Avg 4.21 3.85
Road Games Avg 4.31 4.12
Last 3 Games Avg 1.33 3
Last 5 Games Avg 3.4 2.6
Last 10 Games Avg 3.7 3.6
vs. Division Games Avg 3.86 4.2
vs. Conference Games Avg 4.17 3.95
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 4.78 4.17
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.93 4.04
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 3.8 3.84
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 5 4.12
After a Win Games Avg 4.24 4.38
After a Lost Games Avg 4.21 3.57
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 4.41 4.66
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 4.08 3.4
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 4.09 4.12
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4.32 3.71
After an Over Games Avg 4.65 4.12
After an Under Games Avg 4.02 3.83
After a Push Games Avg 3 5
3.99 3.92
CHICAGO CUBSTeam Name: CHICAGO CUBS(Home Team)
Money Line: CHICAGO CUBS +119 vs MILWAUKEE -129
Spread Line: CHICAGO CUBS —– MILWAUKEE
O/U: CHICAGO CUBS —– MILWAUKEE
Pitchers: CHICAGO CUBS – T Wada (L) vs MILWAUKEE – K Lohse (R)
Game Date: Wednesday,August 13 2014 7:05 PM
Last Game: win 0 – 3 vs Milwaukee Brewers
Current Game: Milwaukee Brewers
Next Game: Vs. MILWAUKEE
Stats & Trends: CHICAGO CUBS vs. MILWAUKEE
PVI Rating on Winning: 43.22%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 46.9%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 48.98%
Streaks: 1 SU Win – 6 Under
Home Teams % of winning this game: 45%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 45%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.3
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.55
Home Team
(CHICAGO CUBS)
When CHICAGO CUBS is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When CHICAGO CUBS is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
vs Division opponent 10-13 338-387 45.05 12-11-0 329-343-53 49.44
vs Conference opponent 15-19 409-412 46.97 16-15-3 332-431-58 52.44
Playing in the month of August 2-3 93-77 47.36 0-5-0 75-84-11 76.42
Playing on Wednesday 2-5 139-150 38.34 5-2-0 109-159-21 43.95
Played as home Underdog 15-19 238-393 40.92 16-16-2 253-334-44 53.45
After a Division Game 14-15 343-390 47.54 11-16-2 317-362-54 56.29
After a Conference Game 16-21 442-420 47.26 16-18-3 348-456-58 54.83
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 10-13 192-185 47.21 12-11-0 167-189-21 50.46
vs NL Conference Opponent 25-32 509-520 46.67 28-26-3 428-514-87 51.36
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 14-15 199-182 50.26 11-16-2 167-188-26 56.11
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 26-32 507-532 46.82 28-27-3 441-513-85 51.43
Coming off 6 under (since 1996) 2-7 3-8 24.75 4-5-0 5-5-1 52.78
Coming off a win 9-18 416-459 40.44 14-12-1 379-439-57 49.91
Coming off a Home Win as a Underdog 3-11 75-124 29.56 6-8-0 78-109-12 57.72
During a night game 13-14 614-678 47.84 12-13-2 564-643-85 52.64
Coming off a 5 home stand 0-1 45-40 26.47 1-0-0 36-39-10 26
Coming off a 3 runs win 3-3 54-68 47.13 2-3-1 49-64-9 58.32
Coming off a score 3 runs FOR in last game 3-8 115-136 36.55 4-7-0 109-122-20 58.23
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 11-17 346-376 43.61 13-13-2 308-373-41 52.39
vs MILWAUKEE (since 1996) 66-63 26-33 47.62 71-53-5 30-26-3 44.59
Coming off a Win over NL CENTRAL division opponent 5-8 88-91 43.81 6-7-0 79-87-13 53.13
Coming off a night game 13-12 621-668 50.09 15-8-2 557-643-89 44.18
Split 1st 2 games of a series 3-8 147-160 37.58 5-6-0 125-167-15 55.87
Coming off a win in game 2 of a series 1-6 124-131 31.46 5-2-0 111-130-14 41.26
Last 30 days 7-8 196-177 49.61 5-10-0 153-197-23 61.48
Last 45 days 8-13 309-297 44.55 8-13-0 254-315-37 58.63
Last 60 days 12-20 412-420 43.51 13-18-1 346-431-55 56.77
Last 90 days 20-26 624-643 46.37 18-25-3 534-649-84 56.5
Vs. Right handed pitchers 19-30 673-748 43.07 22-24-3 624-709-88 52.68
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 22-24 659-737 47.52 21-22-3 578-728-90 53.45
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 7-12 305-326 42.59 9-9-1 271-318-42 52
TEAM: CHICAGO CUBS
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.4 3.74
Home Games Avg 3.39 3.56
Road Games Avg 3.4 3.9
Last 3 Games Avg 2.33 1.67
Last 5 Games Avg 2 2.6
Last 10 Games Avg 3.5 4.1
vs. Division Games Avg 3.62 4.02
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.42 3.81
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 3.19 3.19
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.28 3.93
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 3.26 3.61
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 3.79 3.76
After a Win Games Avg 2.8 4.1
After a Lost Games Avg 3.51 3.25
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 2.25 5
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 3.68 3.14
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 3.31 3.27
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 3.3 3.4
After an Over Games Avg 3.33 3.82
After an Under Games Avg 3.18 3.89
After a Push Games Avg 5.27 2.73
3.3 3.55

 

 

Let’s talk about Clint Fagan again because not only is his Home-Away record noteworthy, but he looks to have possibly the strongest propensity towards the UNDER of all the umpires on tonight’s card with an 8-15 OU record.

This should indicate that he’s got perhaps a bit of a more forgiving strike zone for the pitcher.

The theory goes: Bigger strike zones = more junk = more K…so it especially favours pitchers that throw slop vs the pitchers that throw mostly 4 and 2-seamer steamers and change-ups as their primary go-to pitches.

Let’s look at Fagan’s Pitch FX:

August 2nd:
Long on the bottom, wide outside with LHH.
Long on the bottom with RHH.

July 29th:
Long on the bottom, wide outside with LHH.
Long on the bottom with RHH, wide inside with RHH.

July 13th:
Wide inside and outside vs RHH.

 

Let’s look at our Pitchers so far this month:

Lohse:
#1 pitch SINKER! 49.7% (Fagan’s strike zone will make hitters swing at their shoelaces.)
#2 pitch SLIDER! 28.2% (Fagan’s SZ will make them chase outside.)
#3 pitch Changeup 11.6%
#4 pitch CURVEBALL 9.4% (Fagan’s SZ will make hitters swing at their shoelaces.)
#5 pitch 4-Seamer Steamer 1.1%

The prediction here is that Fagan’s SZ will frustrate the Cubs roster because they’ll look at what they think are balls and they will get called strikes; then, when they start swinging at those same pitches, Lohse can put them 2″ lower / outside and force the Cubs to set it into a “swing at anything near the zone” mentality. At that point, it should be game over…at least until the pen takes over depending on what pitches they want to throw.

 

Wada:
#1 pitch 4-Seamer Fastball 61.3%
#2 pitch Changeup 21.5%
#3 pitch Slider 10.5%
#4 pitch Curveball 6.8%

 

Based on the fact that there is a clear-cut communication between Fagan’s SZ and the style of pitching on behalf of both pitchers, Lohse and Wada, we feel free to recommend an additional 1/2 unit on today’s pick!

 

Milwaukee might be priced around PK at -117, but for all of these underlying considerations, and ESPECIALLY in part to ATS Matchups considerations, we feel that the Brewers are anything but even today and are good to go for a 1.5 unit play.

 

 

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