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Montreal Alouettes vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders – Preview for August 16th, 2014.

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Montreal Alouettes
Montreal Alouettes 
O/U :4825.3
Vs.Date: 2014-08-16
Time: 18:05:00Generated from 6 Previous Games
Saskatchewan Roughriders
Saskatchewan Roughriders
SIDE :13.5
36.1 = 61.4

 

Pick: Saskatchewan Roughriders -13.5 (1/2 unit)

Update:

When All teams played as a -10.0 or more Favorite: 111-136-4 ATS (It does pay taking massive spreads in the CFL. Anything can happen and teams can sometimes sit-back. The games that have been blowouts usually have moderate spreads.)

 

We don’t usually like to take exorbitant spreads, and in the CFL this is about as huge a spread as we can imagine. In this case, however, we see a 2-0 trend when the line moves simultaneously with the action.

At any rate, it’s encouraging to know that the sharp money is not afraid to give Montreal 2 big scores.

Let’s look and see if we can find some practical reasons to think that the Roughriders should cover.

ATS MATCHUPS

50/50

 

 

ATS RAYMOND REPORT

MONTREALTeam Name: MONTREAL(Road Team)

TEAM: MONTREAL
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 16.33 29.5
Home Games Avg 21.25 26.75
Road Games Avg 6.5 35
Last 3 Games Avg 11 35
Last 5 Games Avg 18 29.6
Last 10 Games Avg N/A N/A
vs. Division Games Avg 19 32.5
vs. Conference Games Avg N/A N/A
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 16.33 29.5
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 15.5 31
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 16.75 28.75
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg N/A N/A
After a Win Games Avg 33 34
After a Lost Games Avg 14.25 28.5
After a SU Road Win Games Avg N/A N/A
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 14.5 20
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 33 34
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 14 37
After an Over Games Avg 5 41
After an Under Games Avg 21.25 26.75
After a Push Games Avg N/A N/A
17.23 31.18

Montreal is -13.95

SASKATCHEWANTeam Name: SASKATCHEWAN(Home Team)

TEAM: SASKATCHEWAN
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 26.17 20.67
Home Games Avg 27 15
Road Games Avg 25.33 26.33
Last 3 Games Avg 32.67 13.33
Last 5 Games Avg 25.2 22.8
Last 10 Games Avg N/A N/A
vs. Division Games Avg 18 21.5
vs. Conference Games Avg N/A N/A
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 26.17 20.67
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg N/A N/A
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 22 25
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 34.5 12
After a Win Games Avg 25.33 26.33
After a Lost Games Avg 25 17.5
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 23 17
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 13 26
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 26.5 31
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 37 9
After an Over Games Avg 18 21.5
After an Under Games Avg 30 23.67
After a Push Games Avg N/A N/A
25.58 20.55

Saskatchewan +5.03

  • ATS Raymond Report sets the line at -18.98. Vegas is only asking -13.5.

 

 

ATS STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

  • Saskatchewan is marking the highest PR in the league at 67 L7G.
  • Montreal is marking the lowest PR in the league at 33 L7G.

 

 

PSYCHOLOGICAL JUSTIFICATION

It’s the CFL. Anything can happen on any given day. But when we look at the market and when we look at the full throttle disposition of Saskatchewan and the completely lackluster performance of the Alouettes, there is no good reason to think that Saskatchewan can’t take this down.

If Saskatchewan was doing better in their division, I’d worry about them overlooking Montreal, but at the end of the day, they are fighting with BC for last place and this is the game that either puts them in last place or gives them a shot at continuing to contend.

There should be no ‘sit-back’ psychology to affect the Roughriders even if they amass an early, big, league. To them, they may very well feel as though this is the game that either puts them in last place or puts them on the road to Lord Stanley.

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