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B.C. Lions vs. Toronto Argonauts – Preview for August 17th, 2014.

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British Columbia Lions
British Columbia Lions 
SIDE :326.54
Vs.Date: 2014-08-17
Time: 18:35:00Generated from 17 Previous Games
Toronto Argonauts
Toronto Argonauts
O/U :52
22.95 = 49.49

Pick: Toronto Argonauts +3 (1/2 u)

 

Fatigue? With the addition of that 9th team we’re now seeing teams battle twice in a week. Could this shake a team compared to what they’re used to? No. It’s no different than a team playing on Saturday or Sunday and then playing again the following Thursday. Fatigue shouldn’t be an issue for the Nauts.

 

Market

We see the line steam with the action. This is always encouraging and in this case the trend is clear and it’s with Toronto. Considering Toronto is 1st in their division, and considering that they are the populace majority we might expect BC at about a PK. Due to this consideration we are recommending only a 1/2 u on this play in the case that the sharp money knows something that we don’t. We don’t see any of the typical indicators in ATS Matchups that we usually see when sharps take an unexpected line, so we’re feeling safe with the ‘Nauts for this evening’s contest.

ATS Matchups

There is a small advantage with the Lions here but it’s nothing significant. Toronto is #1 in the East and they are not the same team they are on their best game ever. The B.C. Lions are struggling with the Roughriders for last place in the West.

Psychology

Yesterday we predicted that the Roughriders would play all out given that they’re contending for last in the west, and although they won, they came nowhere near their -14 spread. Also, the game was in very close contention until the final minutes. Saskatchewan pulled that out by luck, not by skill and focus. As far as the Lions are concerned, based on the Roughriders’ performance, the Lions, likewise, won’t necessarily have a fire lit under their keesters either.

On the other hand, the Toronto Argonauts are definitely going to be going all out because while fighting for last place in a division might not produce great results, certainly fighting to keep 1st should. Toronto has the skill to get to 1st, they should have the skill and focus to keep it.

ATS Strength of Schedule

ATS SoS shows us that in the last 3 games, after teams have settled into their seasons, Toronto has performed better against stiffer competition. They have lost less times to East Coast teams than the BC Lions have. Since East Coast teams have inferior records to that of West Coast teams, this means that either B.C. has a problem with looking over East Coast teams or it means that Toronto is simply out performing the B.C. Lions. Either way, this is a small point in favour of the Nauts tonight, but it’s a point nonetheless.

B.C. 4 – 3 57.14 42.86 49.75 0.53 2 – 1 66.67 33.33 33.33 0.50 4 – 3 57.14 42.86 48.98 0.53
TOR 3 – 4 42.86 57.14 54.59 0.49 2 – 1 66.67 33.33 44.44 0.56 3 – 4 42.86 57.14 53.06 0.48

 

ATS Raymond Report

Forecast says that this line is priced almost perfectly, but the Raymond Report adds things up where Toronto is ahead +2.81.

TEAM: BRITISH COLUMBIA
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 23.29 20.71
Home Games Avg 25.75 21
Road Games Avg 20 20.33
Last 3 Games Avg 22.33 25.33
Last 5 Games Avg 26.8 18.8
Last 10 Games Avg N/A N/A
vs. Division Games Avg 23.67 21.33
vs. Conference Games Avg N/A N/A
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 23.29 20.71
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 23.67 21.33
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 6 23
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 28.67 19.33
After a Win Games Avg 27.67 19
After a Lost Games Avg 20 20.33
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 38.5 17
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 26 13
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 6 23
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 17 24
After an Over Games Avg 36 29
After an Under Games Avg 21.4 17.8
After a Push Games Avg N/A N/A
23.11 20.83

 

TEAM: TORONTO
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 25.57 25
Home Games Avg 33.67 23.33
Road Games Avg 19.5 26.25
Last 3 Games Avg 26 21
Last 5 Games Avg 22 23
Last 10 Games Avg N/A N/A
vs. Division Games Avg 23 22.67
vs. Conference Games Avg N/A N/A
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 25.57 25
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 24 28.67
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 29.5 33
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 24 11.5
After a Win Games Avg 26.5 27.5
After a Lost Games Avg 26.25 18.75
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 38 21
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 29.33 19
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 15 34
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 17 18
After an Over Games Avg 31.5 24.5
After an Under Games Avg 23.75 20.25
After a Push Games Avg N/A N/A
25.56 23.47

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