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Arizona Diamondbacks (Anderson) vs. Washington Nationals (Strasburg) – Preview for August 19th, 2014.

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Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks 
O/U :72.7
Vs.Date: 2014-08-19
Time: 18:05:00

Generated from 33 Previous Games

Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals
SIDE :-230
5.32 = 8.02

 

Pick: Washington Nationals -229 (1/2u)

 

Exact same consideration as the winning Atlanta pick yesterday.

Since the chalk is so high we can’t support a full unit pick but we should be able to snap off a few extra units here with a good confidence in our pick.

Goldschmidt was a huge piece of Arizona’s offense and getting it done without him has given the Diamondbacks a very rough 2.4 RPG average L7G.

All of the most obvious stats are just about even, Washington has won 6 straight, and Martingale bettors are dumping units on Arizona…yet the line is still hugely on Washington.

ARI: 4.0 RPG
WSH 4.2 RPG

ARI: 3.13 ERA pen on the road.
WSH: 2.67 ERA pen at home.

ARI’s Anderson 3.16 ERA all season.
ARI’s Anderson 2.50 ERA L3G.

WSH’s Strasburg 3.53 ERA all season.
WSH’s Strasburg 3.32 ERA L3G.

These guys are Even Steven and we don’t see anything here to justify the kind of odds that are being offered with Arizona here. When we consider the Martingale factor on Washington, it only serves to greatly strengthen this point…not to mention that Arizona has x10 the amount of biased bettors as the District of Columbia. If Arizona is such great value, then why isn’t the sharp money on board?

If it’s too good to be true…

 

Let’s see what ATS Stats says about the more clandestine positional factors at play here:

 

ATS FORECAST

  • A massive +2.62 advantage with Washington across a substantial 33 game sample.

 

 

ATS MATCHUPS

  • Not necessarily an air-tight but definitely a convincing case is made for Washington in this position.

Stats to SUPPORT the WASHINGTON pick:

When WASHINGTON played as Favourite- Vs ARIZONA 33-13-0
When WASHINGTON played as Home Favourite- With a spread between 220 and 240 8-2-0
When WASHINGTON played as Home Team- With a spread between 220 and 240 14-6-0
When S Strasburg ‘s Team played as Home Team- With a spread between 220 and 240 7-1-0
When S Strasburg ‘s Team played as Home or Away Team- in the month of August 12-4-0
When WASHINGTON team played as a Home team – Vs Conference Opponent – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Coming off a 2 game over 17-11-0
When WASHINGTON team played as a -220 to -240 home Favorite – After a non division game – Vs Non Division Opponent 8-3-0
When WASHINGTON team played as a -220 to -240 home Favorite – During a night game – Vs. Right handed pitchers 8-2-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a -220 to -240 Home Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – After a conference game – Allowed 4 runs AGAINST in their last game – Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher 12-3-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – Playing on Tuesday – During the month of August – Coming off a night game – Coming off a Home win – Allowed 4 runs or more AGAINST in their last game 37-21-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a -220 to -240 Home Favorite – During a night game – After a conference game – Scored 5 or less runs FOR in their last game – Coming off a Home win 65-27-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a -220 to -240 Home Favorite – Last 5 years – 2nd game of a series – During a night game – Coming off a night game 65-25-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a -220 to -240 Home Favorite – 2nd game of a series – After a non division game – Vs NL WEST opponent – Coming off a Home win 17-6-0

 

 

When ARIZONA played as Road Underdog- With a spread between 200 and 220 2-9-0
When ARIZONA played as Underdog- Vs WASHINGTON 10-25-0
When ARIZONA played as Road Underdog- Vs WASHINGTON 11-29-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a 200 to 220 Road Underdog – After a non division game – Last 5 years – Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog – Coming off a night game 9-26-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a 200 to 220 Road Underdog – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Last 5 years – Before a non division game – Allowed 5 runs or more AGAINST in their last game 10-21-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Playing on Tuesday – During a night game – Before a conference game – Coming off a 2 game over – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog 10-24-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a 200 to 220 Road Underdog – After a conference game – Coming off vs. National League opponent – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog 5-16-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a 200 to 220 Road Underdog – After a conference game – Last 5 years – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Allowed 5 runs or more AGAINST in their last game – Coming off a night game 5-10-0

 

 

 

Stats to THREATEN the WASHINGTON pick:

 

When ARIZONA played as a road team – During Last 4 Years – With 2 Over 28 – 18 – 0
When ARIZONA Played as road team as a Underdog – During Last 3 Years – With 2 Over 18 – 10 – 0
When ARIZONA played as any home/road team – During Last 3 Years – With 2 Over 43 – 25 – 0
When ARIZONA Played as a Underdog – During Last 2 Years – With 2 Over 18 – 7 – 0
When WASHINGTON team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 3 years – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Coming off a Win vs. NL WEST opponent 4-9-0
When WASHINGTON team played as a Home team – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Playing on Tuesday – Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher – Scored 5 or less runs FOR in their last game 11-21-0

 

ATS RAYMOND REPORT

  • Extremely strong case with Washington. Could this be the reason the sharps appear to support the Nationals?
ARIZONATeam Name: ARIZONA(Road Team)
Money Line: ARIZONA +210 vs WASHINGTON -235
Spread Line: ARIZONA +1.5 -105 —– WASHINGTON -1.5 -115
O/U: ARIZONA 7 -105 —– WASHINGTON 7 -115
Pitchers: ARIZONA – C Anderson (R) vs WASHINGTON – S Strasburg (R)
Game Date: Tuesday,August 19 2014 6:05 PM
Last Game: lost 4 – 5 vs Washington Nationals
Current Game: Washington Nationals
Next Game: At WASHINGTON
Stats & Trends: ARIZONA vs. WASHINGTON
PVI Rating on Winning: 42.28%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 51.3%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 67.35%
Streaks: 3 SU Lost – 2 Over
Road Teams % of winning this game: 42%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 56%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.76
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 4.59

 

Road Team
(ARIZONA)
When ARIZONA is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When ARIZONA is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7 5-12 183-228 36.97 5-10-2 169-186-56 59.53
vs Non-Division opponent 14-25 544-743 39.09 14-24-1 527-678-82 59.72
vs Conference opponent 12-22 385-499 39.42 13-20-1 356-467-61 58.68
Playing in the month of August 1-7 105-169 25.41 3-5-0 113-144-17 59.27
Playing on Tuesday 2-6 134-172 34.4 3-5-0 129-158-19 58.78
Played as road Underdog 24-32 562-846 41.39 23-31-2 600-716-92 55.91
After a Non-Division Game 17-22 545-737 43.05 14-24-1 520-677-85 59.86
After a Conference Game 12-22 404-524 39.41 12-21-1 370-496-62 60.46
vs NL WEST Division Opponent 13-11 159-158 52.17 13-10-1 149-149-19 46.74
vs NL Conference Opponent 25-33 484-613 43.61 26-30-2 475-531-91 53.18
Coming off vs NL EAST Division Opponent 7-8 139-199 43.9 4-11-0 138-166-34 63.97
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 24-33 456-599 42.67 25-30-2 451-519-85 54.03
Coming off a 3 losing streak 2-4 43-71 35.53 4-2-0 56-51-7 40.5
Coming off 2 over 3-3 93-111 47.8 4-2-0 98-94-12 41.15
Coming off a lost 17-22 496-676 42.96 19-20-0 461-628-83 54.48
Coming off a Road Lost as a Underdog 10-18 293-437 37.93 15-13-0 296-382-52 51.39
During a night game 16-26 586-784 40.44 19-22-1 588-691-91 53.85
Coming off a 8 road trip 2-0 12-13 74 0-2-0 10-12-3 77.28
Coming off a 1 runs loss 2-8 132-177 31.36 4-6-0 120-168-21 59.17
Coming off a score 4 runs FOR in last game 6-6 121-135 48.64 4-7-1 108-136-12 59.69
Coming off a score 5 runs AGAINST in last game 6-7 98-127 44.86 5-8-0 98-111-16 57.33
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 7-13 343-443 39.32 9-10-1 338-388-60 53.04
vs WASHINGTON (since 1996) 22-35 24-41 37.76 27-29-1 32-26-7 48.31
Coming off a Lost over NL EAST division opponent 6-4 84-120 50.59 4-6-0 78-102-24 58.34
Coming off a night game 20-21 573-755 45.97 18-21-2 559-674-95 54.26
Coming off a game 1 of a series 10-11 271-300 47.54 11-10-0 256-285-30 50.15
Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series 7-9 153-176 45.13 8-8-0 139-171-19 52.58
Last 30 days 4-10 184-262 34.92 6-8-0 178-239-29 57.23
Last 45 days 6-13 260-363 36.66 8-11-0 258-330-35 57.01
Last 60 days 9-17 362-488 38.61 9-16-1 348-447-55 60.12
Last 90 days 15-25 559-732 40.4 15-24-1 537-669-85 58.51
Vs. Right handed pitchers 20-28 634-842 42.31 23-23-2 632-752-92 52.17
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 23-31 646-830 43.18 23-29-2 606-769-101 55.85
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 16-16 372-479 46.86 16-16-0 330-464-57 54.22
TEAM: ARIZONA
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.87 4.59
Home Games Avg 4.22 5.02
Road Games Avg 3.51 4.16
Last 3 Games Avg 2.67 5.67
Last 5 Games Avg 2.2 3.8
Last 10 Games Avg 3.2 3.3
vs. Division Games Avg 4.77 4.88
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.97 4.55
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 3.18 4.88
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.88 5.24
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 3.15 3.87
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 5.06 4.97
After a Win Games Avg 3.9 4.6
After a Lost Games Avg 3.9 4.69
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 4.41 4.48
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 3.71 4.35
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 3.36 4.72
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4.05 4.95
After an Over Games Avg 3.71 4.62
After an Under Games Avg 3.92 4.52
After a Push Games Avg 4.38 4.63
3.76 4.59
WASHINGTONTeam Name: WASHINGTON(Home Team)
Money Line: WASHINGTON -235 vs ARIZONA +210
Spread Line: WASHINGTON -1.5 -115 —– ARIZONA +1.5 -105
O/U: WASHINGTON 7 -115 —– ARIZONA 7 -105
Pitchers: WASHINGTON – S Strasburg (R) vs ARIZONA – C Anderson (R)
Game Date: Tuesday,August 19 2014 6:05 PM
Last Game: win 4 – 5 vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Current Game: Arizona Diamondbacks
Next Game: Vs. ARIZONA
Stats & Trends: WASHINGTON vs. ARIZONA
PVI Rating on Winning: 56.91%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 46.43%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 22.45%
Streaks: 7 SU Win – 2 Over
Home Teams % of winning this game: 55%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 55%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 4.11
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.36
Home Team
(WASHINGTON)
When WASHINGTON is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When WASHINGTON is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7 20-13 213-198 56.22 15-12-6 169-186-56 48.42
vs Non-Division opponent 23-16 624-663 53.73 21-14-4 527-678-82 48.14
vs Conference opponent 20-10 435-449 57.94 15-11-4 356-467-61 49.53
Playing in the month of August 8-4 136-138 58.16 7-3-2 113-144-17 43.02
Playing on Tuesday 5-5 133-173 46.73 4-4-2 129-158-19 52.53
Played as home Favorite 35-24 721-644 56.07 30-22-7 600-675-90 47.63
After a Non-Division Game 22-14 609-655 54.65 16-14-6 532-653-79 50.89
After a Conference Game 21-12 468-450 57.31 18-12-3 370-487-61 48.42
vs NL WEST Division Opponent 8-3 167-151 62.63 4-5-2 126-168-24 56.35
vs NL Conference Opponent 35-21 535-555 55.79 26-23-7 452-548-90 50.87
Coming off vs NL WEST Division Opponent 6-3 158-165 57.8 3-4-2 131-168-24 56.67
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 35-22 537-574 54.87 29-23-5 468-555-88 49.24
Coming off a 5 winning streak 0-1 13-14 24.08 1-0-0 12-12-3 25
Coming off 2 over 5-2 107-89 63.01 3-2-2 88-98-10 46.35
Coming off a win 21-19 436-487 49.87 18-16-6 398-466-59 50.5
Coming off a Home Win as a Favorite 17-11 298-287 55.83 13-11-4 255-288-42 49.44
During a night game 24-19 647-723 51.52 25-13-5 588-691-91 44.12
Coming off a 5 home stand 2-1 47-41 60.04 1-2-0 36-41-11 59.96
Coming off a 1 runs win 5-6 142-163 46.01 6-3-2 131-153-21 43.6
Coming off a score 5 runs FOR in last game 4-3 105-109 53.11 2-1-4 88-110-16 44.45
Coming off a score 4 runs AGAINST in last game 6-3 123-134 57.27 4-3-2 106-135-16 49.44
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 21-12 415-432 56.32 17-11-5 358-426-63 46.82
vs ARIZONA (since 1996) 35-22 32-31 56.1 27-29-1 27-34-2 53.77
Coming off a Win over NL WEST division opponent 4-3 79-89 52.08 2-3-2 62-93-13 60
Coming off a night game 29-15 658-711 56.99 24-14-6 585-689-95 45.46
Coming off a game 1 of a series 11-8 271-301 52.64 13-4-2 256-286-30 38.15
Coming off a win in game 1 of a series 5-2 145-154 59.96 5-0-2 129-153-17 27.13
Last 30 days 9-5 221-225 56.92 9-3-2 178-239-29 41.16
Last 45 days 12-8 308-315 54.72 12-6-2 258-330-35 44.73
Last 60 days 17-10 409-441 55.54 15-9-3 348-447-55 46.87
Last 90 days 24-16 626-665 54.25 21-16-3 537-669-85 49.36
Vs. Right handed pitchers 26-22 702-793 50.57 22-23-3 655-748-92 52.21
Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher 6-3 274-268 58.61 6-2-1 250-251-41 37.55
Coming off win vs. Left handed pitcher 8-5 119-143 53.48 7-4-2 116-131-15 44.7
TEAM: WASHINGTON
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 4.09 3.35
Home Games Avg 4.26 3.2
Road Games Avg 3.9 3.52
Last 3 Games Avg 5 4
Last 5 Games Avg 4 3.2
Last 10 Games Avg 3.9 2.4
vs. Division Games Avg 4.38 3.52
vs. Conference Games Avg 4.13 3.21
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 3.83 4.22
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.29 4.21
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 3.85 3.25
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 5 3
After a Win Games Avg 3.96 3.59
After a Lost Games Avg 4.13 2.83
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 3.69 3.84
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 3.59 3.21
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 4.19 3.38
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4.79 2.38
After an Over Games Avg 3.85 3.19
After an Under Games Avg 4.24 3.42
After a Push Games Avg 4.17 3.58
4.11 3.36

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