1-YEAR MEMBERSHIP ONLY $9.99
We accept PayPal or Credit Cards!

San Diego Chargers vs. San Francisco 49ers – Preview August 24th, 2014.

WorldSeriesOfHandicapping.com

Also join us on our Facebook page:
facebook.com/WorldSeriesOfHandicapping

 

San Diego Chargers
San Diego Chargers 
O/U :41.5

19.79

Vs.

Date: 2014-08-24
Time: 15:00:00

Generated from 35 Previous Games

San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers
SIDE :6

24.42 = 44.21

 

Pick: San Francisco 49ers -6 (1/2u)

 

Why San Francisco?

We like the 49ers because we’ve documented that more times than not, when we think we’re getting a good burn on the books, we’re the ones that end of with 3rd degree wounds.

Look at it and you tell me what makes sense about SF at -6.

Week 1:
SF – 3PF 23PA
SDC – 27PF 7PA

Week 2:
SF – 0PF 34PA

SDC – 14PF 41PA

 

Grand total Pre-Season scoring:
49ers: 3 – 57
Chargers: 41 – 48

This leaves the Chargers with a +/- of + 47 points.

Considering that the Chargers faced the Seahawks in week 2, we don’t have to worry about capping for strength as these teams have faced equalish competition in the preseason so far.

 

So what does this mean?

A few things…

1. There is NO WAY that the 49ers should be priced as chalk MUCH LESS at a whopping -6.

2. Since both teams are from the same state, population bias isn’t a huge factor; although, the 49ers have some namebrand power which could tilt the line their way a tiny bit.

3. Either the books are off their rocker, or we’re overlooking something.

 

What are some bettors might be overlooking:

LAST HOME GAME IN THE PRESEASON!

Why did the 49ers score 0 points last game?
Because they might have been saving their better strings for this pre-season home closer.

If this is true, then San Diego, who plays their home closer next week, might be in the same position that the 49ers were in last week!

This could absolutely be a matter of the 49ers’ best lines vs San Diego’s worst lines.

This is the only point that we could find that might bring perspective to this absurd spread besides the 49ers having namebrand power and an excellent season last year.

ATS MATCHUPS

With 49ers ATS:

When SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS team played as a Home team – Total is between 41.5 to 44 – vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 6-4-0
When SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS team played as Home team as a Favorite – With 6 day off – Playing on grass surface – Coming off a Home loss 6-4-0
When SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS team played as a -3.5 to -6.5 Favorite – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off 2 game Home stand 12-6-1
When SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS team played as a -3.5 to -6.5 Favorite – Playing on grass surface – Coming off 2 game Home stand 10-5-0
When SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS team played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs Non Conference Opponent – Playing on grass surface – vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 7-4-0
When SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS team played as a Home team – Total is between 41.5 to 44 – Coming off a lost on grass – Coming off a Home loss 10-4-0
When SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS played as Home Favourite- Vs AFC West Division 10-6-0
When SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS played as Favourite- With a Spread between 4 and 7.5 6-4-0
When SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS played as Home Team- With Total between 41.5 and 44 10-5-0
When SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS played as Home Team- Vs AFC West Division 9-6-0
When ANY NFL Team played as Home team as a Favorite – Before a non division game – With 6 days off – Coming off 3 unders – Coming off a lost on grass 17-9-3
When ANY NFL Team played as a Home team – During Week 1 to 4 – Total is between 41.5 to 44 – Coming off a lost on grass – vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 14-8-1
When SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Played as a Favorite – With 3 Under 15 – 7 – 2
When SAN DIEGO CHARGERS team played as Road team as a Underdog – Coming off vs National Conference opponent – Coming off a 1 under 4-10-2

 

 

Against 49ers ATS:

 

When SAN DIEGO CHARGERS team played as a Road team – After a non conference game – Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog 7-3-0
When SAN DIEGO CHARGERS team played as a 3.5 to 6.5 Road Underdog – Vs Non Division Opponent – Scored 14 points or less FOR in their last game 9-1-0
When SAN DIEGO CHARGERS played as Road Underdog- On Grass Surface 23-15-2
When SAN DIEGO CHARGERS team played as Road team as a Underdog – Playing on grass surface – Last 5 years 9-5-1
When ANY NFL Team played as Road team as a Underdog – Total is between 41.5 to 44 – Coming off vs National Conference opponent – Coming off a lost on turf – Coming off a game scored 14 points or less 18-10-0
When ANY NFL Team played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off vs National Conference opponent – Allowed 36 – 42 AGAINST in their last game – Coming off a game scored 14 points or less 20-11-0

 

 

Summary:

The fact that despite this absurd line, the 49ers are still somehow seeing the majority of the bets. We can only suspect that the Chargers intend to all but throw this game and for the 49ers to give their fans a good taste of what’s to come this season. If your average NFL bettors were suckers, we’d see them pounding the Chargers ATS, but they are not. There is a reason that most people are leaving the * +47 team * well alone and we are respecting that reason.

Take the 49ers, the market says so because the only way to explain this market is that the 49ers will cover the spread; either that, or, Vegas doesn’t know how to make money.

Which do you think is more likely?

 

 

 

 

Be the first to comment on "San Diego Chargers vs. San Francisco 49ers – Preview August 24th, 2014."

Leave a comment