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Chicago Cubs (Wood) vs. Cincinnati Reds (Cueto) – Preview August 26th, 2014

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Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 
O/U :7

3.44

Vs.

Date: 2014-08-26
Time: 18:10:00

Generated from 33 Previous Games

Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
SIDE :-163

4.38 = 7.82

Pick: Cincinnati Reds ML -163

 

We like Cincinnati because it’s a duck.

  • The ML appropriately describes the statistical probability of Cincinnati winning.
  • The pitching matchup favours Cincinnati
  • The hitting matchup favours Cincinnati
  • ATS Matchups looks proper
  • ATS Forecast gives Cincinnati a point
  • ATS Raymond Report gives Cincinnati a huge edge

 

Given the Reds’ L7G hitting which is a  very poor 2.7 RPG, and given their 2-7 WL record, we would expect to see people pounce on the Chicago +153 at these odds.

So to see this kind of action on the likes of Cincinnati is extremely telling. Once again, it’s indicative of sharp action.

Let’s take a peek at what Vegas might be looking at to justify placing Cincinnati as high chalk:

ATS FORECAST
Cincinnati +0.94

 

ATS RAYMOND REPORT

CHICAGO CUBSTeam Name: CHICAGO CUBS(Road Team)
Money Line: CHICAGO CUBS +185 vs CINCINNATI -205
Spread Line: CHICAGO CUBS +1.5 -132 —– CINCINNATI -1.5 +112
O/U: CHICAGO CUBS 7 -110 —– CINCINNATI 7 -110
Pitchers: CHICAGO CUBS – T Wood (L) vs CINCINNATI – J Cueto (R)
Game Date: Tuesday,August 26 2014 6:10 PM
Last Game: win 1 – 2 vs Baltimore Orioles
Current Game: Cincinnati Reds
Next Game: At CINCINNATI
Stats & Trends: CHICAGO CUBS vs. CINCINNATI
PVI Rating on Winning: 44.62%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 48.39%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 53.06%
Streaks: 3 SU Win – 1 Under
Road Teams % of winning this game: 40%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 53%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.38
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.35

 

Road Team
(CHICAGO CUBS)
When CHICAGO CUBS is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When CHICAGO CUBS is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7 11-15 188-238 43.22 10-11-5 178-190-58 52.01
vs Division opponent 8-21 357-417 36.86 15-11-3 348-371-55 46.96
vs Conference opponent 14-26 408-522 39.44 15-19-6 379-487-64 56.06
Playing in the month of August 6-8 152-220 41.86 5-7-2 157-191-24 56.61
Playing on Tuesday 3-9 142-180 34.55 4-6-2 138-163-21 57.08
Played as road Underdog 24-46 587-882 37.13 28-34-8 626-748-95 54.64
After a Non-Division Game 18-31 582-775 39.81 22-22-5 552-714-91 53.2
After a Non-Conference Game 5-6 167-243 43.09 4-6-1 177-208-25 57.02
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 8-21 185-244 35.36 15-11-3 184-217-28 48.21
vs NL Conference Opponent 22-47 505-645 37.9 30-30-9 501-553-96 51.24
Coming off vs AL EAST Division Opponent 4-3 153-196 50.49 2-5-0 142-188-19 64.2
Coming off vs American Conference Opponent 5-6 449-560 44.98 4-6-1 422-534-53 57.93
Coming off a 3 winning streak (since 1996) 33-40 47-65 43.59 33-34-6 53-54-5 50.61
Coming off 1 under 3-14 231-312 30.1 6-9-2 214-288-41 58.69
Coming off a win 6-17 412-494 35.78 11-8-4 415-433-58 46.59
Coming off a Home Win as a Underdog (since 1996) 9-14 17-19 43.18 16-6-1 21-12-3 31.82
With 1 days off 3-3 94-122 46.76 3-2-1 91-113-12 47.7
During a night game 14-36 624-813 35.71 21-22-7 617-723-97 52.56
Coming off a 6 home stand 1-1 35-44 47.15 2-0-0 43-34-2 22.08
Coming off a 1 runs win 1-4 108-144 31.43 3-2-0 115-120-17 45.53
Coming off a score 2 runs FOR in last game 7-10 125-159 42.6 5-11-1 123-145-16 61.43
Coming off a score 1 runs AGAINST in last game 2-4 91-115 38.75 3-2-1 88-105-13 47.2
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 12-24 399-502 38.81 14-19-3 372-472-57 56.75
vs CINCINNATI (since 1996) 62-74 30-39 44.54 65-60-11 28-37-4 52.46
Coming off a Win over AL EAST division opponent 2-1 68-81 56.16 1-2-0 64-73-12 59.98
Coming off a game that went under 10-10 233-262 48.54 8-8-4 214-244-37 51.64
Coming off a day game 9-19 322-399 38.4 13-12-3 311-368-42 51.1
Coming off a series win 1-1 66-87 46.57 1-1-0 83-61-9 46.18
Last 30 days 6-8 186-253 42.62 5-7-2 184-228-27 56.84
Last 45 days 6-11 260-349 38.99 7-8-2 252-321-36 54.68
Last 60 days 11-18 360-480 40.4 13-14-2 349-440-51 53.81
Last 90 days 17-28 561-717 40.84 21-20-4 537-661-80 51.98
Vs. Right handed pitchers 19-43 668-878 36.93 24-32-6 666-785-95 55.62
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 20-43 681-867 37.87 26-29-8 636-805-107 54.3
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 5-13 294-359 36.4 8-7-3 285-328-40 50.09
CINCINNATITeam Name: CINCINNATI(Home Team)
Money Line: CINCINNATI -205 vs CHICAGO CUBS +185
Spread Line: CINCINNATI -1.5 +112 —– CHICAGO CUBS +1.5 -132
O/U: CINCINNATI 7 -110 —– CHICAGO CUBS 7 -110
Pitchers: CINCINNATI – J Cueto (R) vs CHICAGO CUBS – T Wood (L)
Game Date: Tuesday,August 26 2014 6:10 PM
Last Game: win 3 – 5 vs Atlanta Braves
Current Game: Chicago Cubs
Next Game: Vs. CHICAGO CUBS
Stats & Trends: CINCINNATI vs. CHICAGO CUBS
PVI Rating on Winning: 48.85%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 52.76%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 63.26%
Streaks: 2 SU Win – 1 Over
Home Teams % of winning this game: 50%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 50%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.46
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.71

 

Home Team
(CINCINNATI)
When CINCINNATI is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When CINCINNATI is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7 13-8 223-203 57.13 9-10-2 178-190-58 52.13
vs Division opponent 16-12 359-415 51.76 14-13-1 348-371-55 49.88
vs Conference opponent 14-17 455-475 47.04 9-19-3 379-487-64 62.05
Playing in the month of August 5-6 181-191 47.06 4-6-1 157-191-24 57.45
Playing on Tuesday 6-4 140-182 51.74 3-6-1 138-163-21 60.41
Played as home Favorite 27-23 753-672 53.42 22-26-2 626-706-93 53.59
After a Non-Division Game 21-20 644-692 49.71 15-24-2 563-688-85 58.27
After a Conference Game 13-19 489-479 45.58 10-20-2 392-511-65 61.63
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 16-12 214-217 53.4 14-13-1 189-218-24 50.86
vs NL Conference Opponent 30-29 562-576 50.12 23-32-4 476-570-92 56.34
Coming off vs NL EAST Division Opponent 7-7 178-208 48.06 5-9-0 165-185-36 58.58
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 29-29 569-594 49.47 23-32-3 492-579-92 56.12
Coming off a 2 winning streak 3-2 113-138 52.51 3-2-0 109-122-20 46.41
Coming off 1 over 8-5 226-271 53.51 7-6-0 224-239-34 48.89
Coming off a win 14-16 459-506 47.12 14-16-0 423-480-62 53.25
Coming off a Home Win as a Underdog 2-2 81-135 43.75 2-2-0 89-114-13 53.08
With 1 days off 5-4 99-104 52.17 2-6-1 91-97-15 63.3
During a night game 18-25 673-764 44.35 17-23-3 617-723-97 55.73
Coming off a 4 home stand 1-0 9-14 69.57 1-0-0 9-14-0 30.44
Coming off a 2 runs win 3-2 74-87 52.98 2-3-0 80-71-10 53.51
Coming off a score 5 runs FOR in last game 2-1 114-115 58.23 2-1-0 97-116-16 43.9
Coming off a score 3 runs AGAINST in last game 6-6 136-142 49.46 5-6-1 134-132-12 52.09
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 13-14 437-444 48.88 12-15-0 374-443-64 54.89
vs CHICAGO CUBS (since 1996) 72-64 39-39 51.47 65-60-11 33-36-9 50.09
Coming off a Win over NL EAST division opponent 3-3 77-76 50.17 3-3-0 73-67-13 48.93
Coming off a game that went over 8-5 226-271 53.51 7-6-0 224-239-34 48.89
Coming off a day game 11-11 317-364 48.28 9-13-0 287-352-42 57.09
Coming off a series loss 4-4 186-216 48.14 5-3-0 183-185-34 43.89
Last 30 days 6-9 213-226 44.26 5-9-1 184-228-27 59.82
Last 45 days 8-11 298-311 45.52 7-11-1 252-321-36 58.57
Last 60 days 15-13 408-432 51.07 11-16-1 349-440-51 57.52
Last 90 days 22-19 615-663 50.89 17-22-2 537-661-80 55.8
Vs. Left handed pitchers 11-7 283-281 55.65 10-7-1 214-303-47 49.9
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 32-25 725-815 51.61 25-30-2 635-806-99 55.24
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 10-11 334-356 48.02 11-10-0 299-345-46 50.6

ATS MATCHUPS

Supporting the Reds:

When CUETO JOHNNY ‘s Team played as Favourite- in the month of August 13-7-1
When CUETO JOHNNY ‘s Team played as Home Favourite- in the month of August 7-4-0
When CINCINNATI team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – During the month of August – Coming off a 2 run win – Allowed 3 runs or more AGAINST in their last game 8-2-0
When CINCINNATI team played as a Home team – Before a division game – During a night game – Coming off 1 over – Coming off a 2 game winning streak 11-4-0
When CINCINNATI team played as a Home team – 1st game of a series – Playing on Tuesday – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off 1 over 9-5-0
When CINCINNATI team played as a Home team – During a night game – Vs Division Opponent – Coming off a 2 run win – Coming off a Home win 18-12-0
When CINCINNATI team played as a Home team – Before a division game – During a night game – Coming off a Home win as a Underdog – Coming off a 2 run win 7-3-0
When CINCINNATI team Played as home team as a Favorite – After a non division game – Vs NL CENTRAL opponent 55-35-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Playing on Tuesday – 1st game of a series – Allowed 3 runs AGAINST in their last game – Scored 5 or less runs FOR in their last game 99-56-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Playing on Tuesday – 1st game of a series – Allowed 3 runs AGAINST in their last game – Scored 5 or less runs FOR in their last game 99-56-0

 

When CHICAGO CUBS played as Road Underdog- Vs NL CENTRAL 13-29-3
When T Wood ‘s Team played as Underdog- in the month of August 4-12-1
When CHICAGO CUBS team Played as Road team as a Underdog – During a night game – Before a conference game – Coming off a Home win – Coming off a Home win as a Underdog 3-7-0
When CHICAGO CUBS team Played as Road team as a Underdog – After a non division game – Vs Division Opponent – Coming off 1 under – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 3-7-0
When CHICAGO CUBS team played as a Road team – During a night game – Playing on Tuesday – Allowed 1 runs or more AGAINST in their last game – Coming off a 3 game winning streak 3-7-0
When CHICAGO CUBS team Played as road team as a Underdog – Vs Conference Opponent – With 1 day off 14-31-0
When CHICAGO CUBS team Played as road team as a Underdog – During a night game – Last 2 years 50-96-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a 180 to 200 Road Underdog – 1st game of a series – Vs Division Opponent – Coming off a day game – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 46-88-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Road team as a Underdog – During the month of August – Last 5 years – Coming off a Home win as a Underdog – Coming off a day game 11-23-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a 180 to 200 Road Underdog – Vs Division Opponent – Playing on Tuesday – Scored 2 or less runs FOR in their last game – Coming off 1 under 4-16-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a Road team – After a non conference game – Playing on Tuesday – Before a conference game – Coming off a series win – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 16-30-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a 180 to 200 Road Underdog – Vs Conference Opponent – Coming off vs. American League opponent – Playing on Tuesday – Coming off a day game 8-26-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a 180 to 200 Road Underdog – Before a division game – Allowed 1 runs or more AGAINST in their last game – Coming off 1 under – Coming off a Win vs. AL EAST opponent 3-12-0
When CHICAGO CUBS played as a road team – During Current Season – Won Last Game by 1 Runs or More 6 – 12 – 0

Threatening the Reds:

When CHICAGO CUBS team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs Conference Opponent – Before a conference game – Scored 2 or less runs FOR in their last game – Coming off a series win 7-3-0
When CINCINNATI played as any home/road team – During Last 5 Years – With 1 Over or More – Won Last Game by 2 Runs or More – With SU Record of 2 Win 5 Lost in L7G 5 – 12 – 0

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