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TNF: Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers

Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos 
SIDE :323.42

Date: 2016-10-13
Time: 19:25:00

Generated from 21 Previous Games

San Diego Chargers
San Diego Chargers
O/U :44
16.61 = 40.03

Today’s Pick: OVER 44

Welcome sports enthusiasts, sports bettors, and sports fans.

Today we’re going to study a narrative that should help lead us to a Total’s Pick for Thursday Night Football.

We want to start by taking a look at the Falcons, who Denver faced, and we want to know why Denver wasn’t able to manage more than 16 points against one of the worst defenses in the league. Atlanta was missing 4 Linebackers and a Cornerback in their defensive unit, they’re one of the worst defensive teams in the league, yet they held a Denver squad, who is 7th in scoring, to just 16 points. Two words, “Paxton Lynch.”

See here is the thing. If we are talking about the Seahawk’s defense, we know how it functions and it has everything to do with physical ability and talent. Strategy only goes so far, and then talent takes over. The Seahawks’ defense is pure talent. So if the Broncos were up against the ‘Hawks, then that would explain how Denver only scored 16 points. But when you have a team like ATL, who’s defensive line has been struggling, and have 5 of their DL/DB sitting out…it tells us that this was purely strategical and/ QB error.  We don’t think that it will take the Chargers more than a minute for them to look at the tape and find out what the Atlanta Falcon’s pass rush was doing that was so effective, and how they mitigated the Broncos scoring to a measly 84 yards, and to draw up a game plan that will duplicate those effects. The shortcomings definitely can’t all be placed on the shoulders of Paxton Lynch.

The Chargers have had little to no issues on the other end of the field. They are second in the league in scoring and they have been doing it consistently.  We were worried that the loss of RB Danny Woodhead to a knee injury would stymie the Chargers run game, but RB Melvin Gordon has really stepped up and solidified the San Diego ground game.

In the air, we have WR Travis Benjamin and WR Tyrell Williams catching for a combined 752 yards. We’d go ahead and break down how Chargers having some injured DL and DB might play a factor, but frankly, just like the Falcons, this will only allow the 2nd stringers to step up and prove why they should be first stringers, just like we saw Atlanta do last week.

Does Denver have a reasonable offense? Better than average, yes.

With QB Siemian back, could the Broncos wow their fans in an offensive masterpiece? We suppose they could.

Will the Chargers continue to batter the scoreboard the way they have been? After studying the ATL tape from last week, there is no two ways about it. So the only difference we really see between last week and this week, will be that the Broncos will keep up their end of the bargain and put up enough points to tip this to go OVER the total.

When DENVER BRONCOS team played as a Road team – Vs Conference Opponent – Last 4 years: OU 13-1

When ANY NFL Team played as a Home team – Last 4 years – During Week 4 to 8 – Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog – Coming off a 0-3 point loss: OU 15-4-1