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Thursday Night Football – Jacksonville Jaguars (44) @ Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars 
O/U :4416.91
Vs.

Date: 2016-10-27
Time: 19:25:00

Generated from 28 Previous Games

Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans
SIDE :3.5
21.78 = 38.69

TNF Pick: Jacksonville +3.5

Quick Matchup:

Tennessee owns the ground in terms of Yards For/Yards Against.

Jacksonville owns the air in terms of Yards For/Yards Against.

Normally we have to give the air-game the nod, but in this case Tennessee’s RB DeMarco Murray, at 633 yards across 139 carries, is a deadly weapon. Also, the Jags will have to compete with Marcus Mariota, who is equally deadly on the run-game, with 29 carries averaging a whopping 7.2 yards per carry. The Tennessee run game is #3 in the league and tough to fade.

However…when was the last time that the Titans saw a rush-defense like that of  Jacksonville? Let’s break down exactly what kind of defense that this Titans rush game has been up against to give them #3 in the league:

  • MIN (#3 rush-def) 25-16
  • DET (#19 rush-def) 15-16
  • OAK (#28 rush-def) 17-10
  • HOU (#29 rush-def) 27-20
  • MIA (#30 rush-def) 17-30
  • CLE (#31 rush-def) 26-28
  • IND (#25 rush-def) 34-26

So now that we see where they’re getting their #3 rating from and we handicap Tennessee for skill of opponents…they’ve basically had all of the easiest rush defenses to conquer. Titans have 3 wins and they’re lucky to have that many, especially the two point win against the winless Cleveland Browns in week 6.

We know that “#3 in rushing” looks real hot…but on TNF, “hot” may very well rhyme with “not”.

Look, we know that teams with a strong rush can often find that first down marker where other teams have to kick it away. But we also suspect that Tennessee’s completely untested run-game might hit a brick wall in Jacksonville’s rush defense (#18 in league) who are the best rush-def that they will have seen since week 1.

 

On the other side of the issue, we have Jacksonville and their #17 pass game.  This really isn’t that fantastic but for the fact that the Titans are a pithy #27th in pass-d. This could leave room for some significant yardage for the Jags. Hurns, Lee, and Robinson all have about 300 yards a piece on average.  Do the Titans have enough stopping power with their 18th placed pass-def? We’re betting that they do not. The problem with Bortles is that he throws INT better than he throws TDs. So if Jacksonville stands a chance, Bortles will have to have a solid gameplan in the pocket.

Frankly, Jacksonville is lucky to have 2 wins. They bested Chicago by 1 point on Oct. 16th and they are possibly the worst team in the NFL besides the Tennessee Titans and the Browns. Both teams are super desperate and we suspect that the feline visitors will have the advantage in this position. Nothing wakes up a desperate losing team like hearing the home team get cheered on for a first down. Nothing messes up the concentration of a losing home team like a few good plays, or even an early score or two, with a crowd that makes the home team feel that they have the game won when headed into the locker room. Definitely take the Jags in a 2H prop if they are down more than 6 points at halftime.

 

Averaging 11.3 yards per pass, WR Tajae Sharpe’s knee issues might be a bit of a factor, but aside from that, the injury lists don’t look particularly damaged.

 

With Jacksonville’s recent low scoring issues, tons of people have 0% confidence in them and this, we feel, has moved the line a great deal more with Tennessee than the line is worth. Comparatively speaking:

In week 7, the Titans lost 34-26 to the Colts.

In week 4, the Jags beat the Colts 30-27.

 

So the Jags are not completely defanged and if they still have any fight in them, then this will be the game that they were waiting for. It’s easy to to see how their 33-15 loss to Oakland last week could have been a mulligan as they prepared for the bite-sized Titans in this week’s Thursday Night contest.

 

Stats we like:

When TENNESSEE TITANS played as Home Favorite- With Total between 44.5 and 47: 6-16-1 ATS

When TENNESSEE TITANS played as Home or Away Team- Vs AFC South Division Division: 11-31-3 ATS

 

Stats we worry about:

When TENNESSEE TITANS team played as any home/road team playing on Thursday: 8-4-1 ATS