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Saturday NCAAF Football: Florida State (-6) @ NC State (58)

November 29, 2014: North Carolina State Wolfpack quarterback Jacoby Brissett (12) looks up up field for an open receiver during the NCAA football game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack and the North Carolina Tar Heels at Kenan Memorial Stadium in Chapel Hill, N.C. The Wolfpack won the game, 35-7.
Florida State
Florida State 
SIDE :628.21
Vs.

Date: 2016-11-05
Time: 18:00:00

Generated from 14 Previous Games

North Carolina State
North Carolina State
O/U :57.5
24.84 = 53.05

Saturday’s NCAAF pick: North Carolina State +6

 

And we’re off to the races for Saturday’s NCAAF. Everyone and their dog are writing about the Tide, the Wolverines, and the Tigers. So we’ll cover an offbeat imbalance.

Of course we’re talking about Seminoles @ Wolfpack.

Overall:

  • the Seminoles are +8.0 points on their points production.
  • the Wolfpack are +6.5 points better on their defense.

So with a line set at a +6 evaluation, Wolfpack covers by 4.5 points. On top of that, defense>offense. Of course this is quite cursory, but so far so good for the ‘Pack.

Looking at the psychology, Florida State lost their playoff spot last week. How will they react? Well, frankly, that team has nothing to prove. Overall they’re powerranked 15th in the league and for good reason.  With QB Deondre Francois leading the Seminoles throwing 11TDs and passing for 2162 yards and only 4 interceptions, they are none too shabby and sit just beneath the best in the league.

If Florida St. wasn’t doing well, we might see some of their under-performers step-up in a big way…but given that Florida St. has been putting up some solid performances, we might be wise to consider that the Seminoles will take this opportunity to take a week off as they visit the Wolfpack on their home turf. Sometimes being the visitors helps, but with all this considered, this probably isn’t one of them.

When Florida State played as Favorite- Vs North Carolina State: 2-12-1 ATS

North Carolina State is one of the most healthiest teams in the league, and to the contrary, Florida is definitely missing many of their assets on the field, but even just their newest injuries are significant:

[DT] 11/04/2016 – Adam Torres out for season ( Foot )

[DE] 11/04/2016 – Jalen Wilkerson expected to miss Saturday vs. NC State ( Concussion )

[DT] 10/30/2016 – Darvin Taylor II “?” Saturday vs. NC State ( Shoulder )

[DB] 10/31/2016 – Trey Marshall expected to miss 1st Half Saturday vs. NC State ( Suspension )

[OL] 11/04/2016 – Landon Dickerson out for season ( Knee )

[WR] 11/03/2016 – Jesus Wilson out indefinitely ( Foot )

[C] 10/30/2016 – Corey Martinez “?” Saturday vs. NC State ( Knee )

[DT] 09/04/2016 – Keith Bryant out for season ( Foot )

[WR] 09/09/2016 – George Campbell out for season ( Groin )

[LB] 09/09/2016 – Sh’Mar Kilby-Lane out for season ( Academics )

[DB] 09/14/2016 – Derwin James out indefinitely ( Knee )

[WR] 09/28/2016 – Ja’Vonn Harrison out indefinitely ( Suspension )

Seminoles injuries are extensive to say the least.

So we have a team that just lost out on the playoffs…who are playing @away…with plenty of injuries…and really doesn’t even have the points production or the yardage to justify a -6 evaluation.

But the Wolfpack are not without their woes. We can excuse Lousiville, we can excuse Clemson, but we question how they lost a -14 evaluation by 21 points in a 21-14 loss against Boston College.

We always say: Defense beats Offense. And that’s what happened last week. Boston averages 298 yards against per game, and they routinely keep their opponents run-game under 100 yards.

This is not the case with Florida State. Florida State allows a whopping 403 yards per game to NC State’s 354 yards. But with that said, Florida State marks 480 yards per game, to North Carolina’s 399 yards. So the net ‘points for’ favors Florida St., but the defensive advantage goes to North Carolina.

At the end of the day, Florida State has always performed atrociously against the NC State, and we don’t see why Vegas gets the ATS evaluation better this time.

We’ll put our chips in with the Wolfpack who have a chip on their shoulder, and hopefully the capacity to do something about it in front of their home crowd.

When NC State Played as a Underdog – During Last 10 Years – With 1 Under or Less: 11-5-1 ATS

When Florida St team played as a -3.5 to -6.5 Favorite – Vs Div Opp – Playing on Saturday: 3-10 ATS