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Sunday NFL: Tennessee Titans (52) @ Indianapolois Colts (-2.5)

Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans 
O/U :5224

Date: 2016-11-20
Time: 13:00:00

Generated from 3 Previous Games

Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts
SIDE :2.5
20.5 = 44.5

Today’s Pick: Titans +2.5/o52

Sometimes looking at interesting anomalies can be a good indicator that something is going on behind the scenes that would turn an “average wager” into an exceptional one.

Definitely the ATS Forecast has the Titans as one of the biggest misplaced lines of this week. This is always something to look out for as the ATS Forecast is basically where books take their lines from.

To start today’s narrative, it’s important to note that the Titans are no strangers to the power of the Colts. Spanning back to 2013, possibly further, the Titans have lost 6 in a row against the Colts.

*This is the second time that the Titans had an evaluation of -2.5 or better when facing the Colts since 2013.*

So in other words, we’re not the only ones that like the Titans’ chances to cover.

The Titans have one of the healthiest teams in the league with a relatively injury-free-lineup. The only one to really speak of was RB DeMarco Murray, but he had a full participation in practice and was cleared from the injury list.

The Colts have also been fairly lucky moving into Week 11. They had many people on the injured list this week, but most of them had full practice and are probable to play. That said, Corner-Back Patrick Robinson is probably their most major loss. With Robinson marking 23 tackles this season, Titans’ WR Rishard Matthews and WR Tajae Sharpe might have a slightly easier time finding their mark.

In all of the Colts’ last 7 games, they’ve consistently allowed between 22-30 points.

  • vs. SDP 10th best offense
  • vs. JAK 19th best offense
  • vs. CHI 16th best offense
  • vs. HOU 30th best offense
  • vs. TEN 6th best offense (Colts won 34-26)
  • vs. KCC 26th best offense
  • vs. GBP 14th best offense

Now interestingly enough, the Colts almost abandoned their run game and went hard in the air. 3 weeks ago, the Titans’ air-defense didn’t hold tight against the Colts/ air game, where the Titans allowed a maximum number of yards against in the air despite having all their starters in the back-field.

The Colts’ pass game might have a leg up on the Tennesee CBs and SSs, but the Titans are averaging a phenomenal 39.3 points across their last three games. What’s important to note is that they’ve done it all in the air. Their last 3 games also marked 3 record air-games this season at 280, 284, and 313 yards passing.

So the pass-game is key.

Let’s analyze:

The place, Nissan Stadium, Home of the Titans.

The time, October 27th.

The opposition, 4th placed pass defense, Jacksonville Jaguars.

The what, Titans marked 322 pass yards against the Jags’ 4th best pass defense in the league!


So the only thing, really, that could make this pie any sweeter would be for us to let you know that the Indianapolis Colts are LAST in the league in pass defense!

So we have a cocktail of the Titans’ recent competence and hot streak. We have them wanting some get-back at the Colts and a way to do it. We have a Colts team that is dedicated to allowing no less than 20 points on the board.

In addition to the narrative might be the point that combined these teams’ Total score so far this season is OU14-4.

So this will be a slobberknocker, this will not be a blowout, this will likely go over the total, but we see that the Titans will have bring the fight and the tenacity that will see them through.

Titans have the better points production, and we’re getting them as +2.5 as the visitors.

Titans have the better yard production, and we’re getting them at +2.5

Titans’ scoring is red-hot and they’re looking for some get back.

Titans are completely healthy, and are firing at all cylinders.

In the 4th Q against the Colts a few weeks ago, Tennessee put up 13 points, as if to signal that their pass-game had finally found away around the Colts’ pass-defense. Look for that to continue where it left off this week.


When TENNESSEE TITANS team played as a 0 to 3 Road Underdog – With 6 day off – Coming off 1 ATS win: 12-4 ATS

When TENNESSEE TITANS played as a road team – Won Last Game by 22 Points or More: 11-6 ATS

When INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Played as home team as a Favorite – With 1 Over or More – Won Last Game by 5 Points or More – With SU Record of 2 Win 1 Lost in L3G: 3-9-1 ATS