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NFL Week 11: Team Recaps

Sometimes it pays to step back, take stock, and look at the bigger picture. Often when we find narratives on plural teams, we see them face off one against the other or against common competition. When this happens, we can draw beads on teams that have a false sense of excellence, or teams that should be considered strong sleepers ready to wake.

To recap:

  • Detroit won and covered against the Viking’s 2nd best defense in the league. Allowing the Vikings only 13 points proves that the Lions have put together a strong defense and that they’ll be doing just fine moving into the back 9. Look for the Lions to continue playing on a new level.
  • Vikings stepped up allowing Detroit only 16 points. Look for them to continue getting things back on track. Despite the loss, we’re beginning to see the Vikings play with the same quality they were in the first weeks; that said, if their points production continues to suffer, they’ll continue to sputter. Look for Minnesota to cover against teams with poor points productions, and fade them in games against teams with good points production.
  • Washington covered against Dallas putting their A1 pass-offense on display. Redskins QB, Kirk Cousins, was allowed to break his 400 yard ceiling and passed for a stupendous 449 yards. To think that Dallas has the 5th toughest defense in the league makes the point that much more impressive. Look for them to cover against anyone.
  • Dallas is having some critical defensive issues. Their #3 offense is definitely online but their defensive performance is spotty. Any team that’s top 15 in scoring has good odds to cover against Dallas. Since the Cowboys lost Safety Barry Church and Cornerback Morris Claiborne, they have done poorly in the back field. Cleveland and Baltimore were the only teams that they could stop from putting up significant points…but as we all know, those teams couldn’t find the other end-zone if they were standing in it. Look for Dallas to continue struggling, particularly against teams that have a strong pass-offense.
  • Indianapolis has been flirting with the 30-point mark almost non-stop.  Colts have probably had one of the easiest schedules which will give their points production an inflated value, but they have been consistently scoring…until this week. We took Pittsburgh to cover, but we were expecting a battle from Indianapolis. We were very wrong. The Colts marking only 7 points against the 10th placed defense of the Steelers was a shock; not only that, but Pittsburgh’s mediocre offense managed 28 points at the same time. Look for Indianapolis to continue having issues covering, as they’ll be up against some of the tougher teams.
  • Pittsburgh is having a tough season. Their record is 6-5, but it really doesn’t feel like it. They’re letting inferior teams beat them up and their gameplay is spotty. Steelers are a rollercoaster team and not one that we would normally  recommend wagering for/against. They can lose to Philly 34-3, and they can lose to Miami 30-15, but then they’ll turn around and offer Kansas City a 43-14 thrashing. They’ve averaged 26 points a game L2G, and they kept both Cleveland and Indianapolis in single-digits, but don’t let that fool you. The reason we picked them was we diagnosed a roster-issues in the Colts’ roster. Make no mistake, they didn’t “win” their game on Thursday, the Colts severely lost it…so careful with the Steelers as the face the NY Giants next week. Look for Pittsburgh to continue their spotty play. They might be finally putting their defense together, but they won’t be tested until they play the Bills on Dec. 11th.
  • New Orleans has had a league leading scoring machine all season long. Their defense has improved from the early weeks, but it still has room for improvement. Look to New Orleans to cover against teams with a weakish defense, and look at the games continuing to go over the total.
  • San Francisco finally covered the spread…if you bet at the right time. Most people ended up pushing the 31-24 total in favor of Miami. Know that kid on your T-Ball team when you were 7 years old? Remember how every time he gets up to bat the game stops for 6 minutes while he keeps whiffing at the ball? Remember how no matter what tips he got, how hard he tried, how much time he took, or what method he used, he just couldn’t hit the ball? That’s the 49ers. You need to have a defense to win football games. SF 49ers have none of that stuff. Continue to expect Vegas to have trouble gauging how poorly they’ll play. Keep in mind, Cali has 40 million people. So even though the book might want to set the line at -15 to -25, the San Fran bettors and Cali residents will make sure that we get awesome value fading the 49ers. Look to San Fran to keep doing all that they can. Fade, fade, fade.
  • Oakland is hot! We’ve had to retract our statement of “mojo” on Dallas, but when it comes to Oakland? Oh man! It’s not just the wins either. Oakland is getting awesome value ATS and none of it seems trappish whatsoever. They’re priced at -3.5 to face Buffalo this coming week, and we like their odds. Look to Oakland to cover ATS as they pick it up another notch as they ready themselves for a possible Super Bowl appearance. Don’t be surprised to find Black and Grey in this season’s superbowl.