Generated from 21 Previous Games
New England Patriots
26.29 = 41.99
Today’s Pick: U44.5
It can be said that this is not the Baltimore Ravens of 2013…but you wouldn’t know it by Baltimore’s performance last week against Miami, where they crumbled Miami in a 38-6 thrashing. The Ravens’ success was mainly the air-game, where they passed for 386 yards. With a then 8-4 WL record, Miami is actually considered very strong this season. They’re second in their division only to the New England Patriots who boast a 10-2 record.
Now, not only was Baltimore’s pass-game on-point in a way like it’s never been, their defense, also, somehow mitigated Miami to a mere 6 points on the scoreboards. This really isn’t surprising as the Ravens have scored 4-1 ATS Last 5 Games, consistently outdoing Vegas oddsmakers expectation.
Patriots can’t really boast the same. While they’re technically 3-2 ATS L5G, 2 of those wins were within 3 points, meaning that Patriots are barely on par. Could this disparity have a factor to play in the MNF final? It could; typically, when top teams are doing “just enough” and underdog teams are thrashing their opponents, often, the top teams simply can’t keep pace.
Will this be the case in MNF? It very well could be.
What makes us nervous is that despite the Patriots having a “just enough” psychology lately, Patriots’ QB, Tom Brady, is simply formidable. 19 Touchdowns and 1 Interception. Are you kidding? That’s bonkers. 2,470 yards this season and counting. No, fading Brady, even at -6, might not make too much sense. In this spot.
What about a play on the total? Well, based on the Ravens’ recent prowess on the d-line, the U44.5 might actually make sense:
Baltimore’s Point’s Against, their Last 5 Games, looks like this:
14 PA vs Pittsburgh – Nov. 6
7 PA vs Cleveland – Nov. 10
27 PA vs Dallas – Nov. 20
14 PA vs Cincinnati – Nov. 27
6 PA vs Miami – Dec. 4
New England’s Point’s Against, their Last 5 Games, looks like this:
25 PA vs Buffalo – Oct. 30
31 PA vs Seattle – Nov. 13
17 PA vs San Fran – Nov. 20
17 PA vs NY Jets – Nov. 27
10 PA vs LA Rams – Dec. 4
Ravens’ QB, Joe Flacco, has thrown for 15 TD this season, and a whopping 3,258 yards, but he’s let up 11 Interceptions so far this season. So there is a low probability that Baltimore will be a blowout against the Patriots’ defense.
Ravens are 28th in rushing, averaging a meager 89.7 yards. So their ground-game threat is minimal.
We think the Under is probably the play here, but we’d recommend no more than a quarter/half unit wager.
Good luck with your Monday Night Football!
Here are a few key positional considerations: