Green Bay Packers
Generated from 12 Previous Games
O/U :4924.06 = 47.89
Our Pick: Green Bay Packers -3
This game promises to be a proper banger, and there are a lot of factors that weigh on both sides of the pick; however, we think we have the bottom line, and that line is GBP -3.
Aaron Rodgers suffered an injury, last game, to his neck. Rodgers said it was the first time that he had suffered what’s known as a “neck stinger”, but assured the press that the injury healed quickly and that he’s ready to roll. Will we see this take a toll in this week’s contest against the Lions? Probably not. Likely, Rodgers will resume his A-game which is exactly what he was having last week, before and after his injury. It shouldn’t factor in Sunday’s game.
Last week, Rodgers passed for 72% completions across 308 yards against he Vikings. Now. This wouldn’t really be the biggest deal…but when we look at which team has the #4 best pass defense in the league, we see, indeed, it’s the Minnesota Vikings. This is a critical key-marker as it proves that while Detroit’s and Green Bay’s PF/PA stats are all fairly similar, and their yards production/prevention even more so…the Packers, right here and now, are playing some of the best offensive ball of the season.
We might begin to get worried that the Packers line is too easy. We might suspect that there is a hitch to this; but, let’s remember that not only are the Lions getting the full -3 at home (giving the Packers a -6 true-north evaluation), but they’re also 4-2 ATS at home, where the Packers are 3-4 ATS on the road. Detroit only has 31% of the action which could be cause for concern, and yes, normally this will be indicative of cheese, and a spring-loaded snapping mechanism; but, after factoring in everything, it doesn’t really look like a trap-line. The line doesn’t look too good to be true.
We found another critical clue as well:
When Detroit faced Minnesota, 5 and 7 weeks ago, they managed only 214 passing yards in both games. This pales in comparison to Green Bay’s 308 passing yards last week vs. the Vikings.
That said, we found a troubling marker when we compare their games vs. Chicago, 2 and 3 weeks ago.
2 weeks ago, Packers faced Chicago, and they allowed 354 yards in passing, across 30 completions out of 43 attempts.
3 weeks ago, Lions faced Chicago, and they allowed only 204 yards in passing, across 20 completions out of 32 attempts.
Their run-game production/prevention comparisons were almost identical.
Now. Chicago, Minnesota, and Detroit are all mid-fare passing teams. So for Green Bay to be allowing +350 yards passing in their last two games, against Minnesota and Chicago, is foreboding as to what Detroit could accomplish on Sunday.
One x-factor that might possibly show up to save the Packers’ spread, is their capacity to force turnovers. Their defense has caused a ridiculous 12 turnovers in their last 3 games, averaging 4 per game. This is absolutely huge. If this plays a roll on Sunday, then the Lions will be needing much more than a +3 evaluation because they won’t be keeping possession long enough to score. This is highly encouraging when we compare this stat and Packers’ propensity to effect a high-impact defense, to their sputtering pass-defense of late.
Another fantastic indicator that’s been firing on all cylinders lately, is the ATS indications.
- Green Bay is 4-1 ATS last 5 games.
- Detroit is 0-3 ATS last 3 games.
This means that even the oddsmakers are having problems underestimating how good Packers are playing, and overestimating how bad Detroit is playing. This is always nice…however…on this point, we need to make light of a very important pattern. Luckily, Detroit isn’t at 4 straight ATS losses yet, so this doesn’t apply, but as a sidenote, we have information that ALL sportsbettors have got to know…without exception.
What we’re about to share is atsstats.com information which is only accessibly to atsstats members; but, since it’s the holidays, we’ll share this one little tiny crumb of what atsstats.com is all about:
SPORTS BETTORS! DID YOU KNOW:
When All teams played as home/road, coming off a 3 ATS win, Last 2 years: 29-24 ATS
When All teams played as home/road, coming off 4 ATS win, Last 2 years: 11-15-1 ATS
When All teams played as home/road, coming off a 3 ATS lost Last 2 years: 21-25-3 ATS
When All teams played as home/road, coming off 4 ATS lost Last 2 years: 14-8 ATS
(To those of you familiar with the site, these stats show you how everything is interconnected and they are in direct confirmation of what we’re doing with what the Parity Value Index as well.)
So on this point, if Lions were 4 straight ATS losses, we would be extremely eager to hold back on this pick and take some pause…but since it’s only 3 straight so far, Detroit is 21-25-3 ATS to win, and we should be safe to roll.
We would be negligent to ignore the fact that there is clearly sharp money on the Lions, and that should never be taken lightly…however…we’ve been doing this long enough to know that when we fade sharp money, it’s an argument among peers.
No matter what, Sunday promises to be worthy of high-energy, high-impact football. Green Bay’s offensive pass game vs. Detroits’ pass-defense. Normally, we like defense>offense, but in this instance, there is just too much to go against that point. Too much is lining up in Packers’ favor.
Good luck out there!