ATS Staff Writer
RR: STL, PIT, LAD with strong R vs G
Loners: CIN, TOR, KCR, NYM, SDP, NYY
-CIN is SOS 20. Counter-intuitively, picks that are +20 are 0-3. (too comfortable, too many lucky bounces, parity is likely to occur)
-TOR Hutchinson not only has terrible numbers of late, but he’s traditionally bombed against Houston. On the other hand, Hernandez has only 2 weaknesses in the TOR lineup, Bautista, and Martin.
-KCR The Royals have a lineup that can hold their own vs. Lefties. I like KCR here.
-NYM Niese has been pitching fire lately, that said he struggles against CHC, but Travis Wood is not without his issues vs the NYM lineup either. I like NYM here, but I also thing the OVER is likely as well.
-SDP TOUGH call. Ross and Fister are equal ERA L3G, but Ross has 20Ks. That’s mega. HOWEVER, Ross has traditionally done terrible vs the WSH lineup and despite his 20Ks L3G, he’s 0-2 with a 4.00 ERA. Too close to call and the price isn’t right.
-NYY Another close one. Look. Plate Ump Barksdale has shown us two tendencies this year. #1. He lets them pitch low. #2. He gives pitchers the inside against Right-Handed Hitters. This is obvious regarding PitchFX, and not to a small extent. This will play directly into Chase Whitley’s wheelhouse and I think that the total going UNDER is likely. When pitchers are given too much room to play, hitters simply don’t have a chance. What happens in the bullpen portion of this game is another story, but I think NYY will take this lead early and likely win the game. At -121, it’s a pretty good shot, even thought the NYY Metropolis betting bias is greatly devaluing this pick which would normally be priced at PK if it was any other 2 teams.
I’m good with KCR, I’m good with NYY. I thought that LAD was a Loner+RR pick (13-0) but they are coupled against COL which has considerations of it’s own. LAD is a RR/GvsR pick, but it’s not paying.
So KCR and NYY will make my day.
It’s not wise to snipe systems that are already sniping at the big picture…but this is common after a bad day.
This is a rookie move, and I should just bet ALL the loners, but what can I say, I love to snipe and I think I found some good pointers.