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Reply To: MLB 2015

Home Forums ATS Klondike MLB 2015 Reply To: MLB 2015

#4325

ATS Staff Writer
Participant

“Why does Colorado qualify as a parity pick and not Toronto or Oakland (Both have a bigger discrepancy in PVI)?”

Sure. So the PVI is something entirely different. I have oodles of how those pan out when considered by themselves, and no, it’s not a wise thing to do.

When I say “parity” I’m talking about Pitchers and Hitting.

EXAMPLE:

Team A has an average RPG of 5.3
Team A has cool bats lately with an RPG of 3.3 L7G.

This means that Team A is “owed” 2.0 RPG.
GENERALLY and on AVERAGE they score 5.3 runs, L7G they’ve only scored 3.3, so we know that parity has to take effect and bring them back to 5.3

Team B has an average RPG of 4.0.
Team B has a red hot RPG of 6.5 L7G.

This means that Team B “owes” parity 2.5 RPG.

So Team A would have a parity advantage of 2.0 + 2.5 RPG.

Then I do the same with pitching.

I will be tracking this ALL SEASON as the longer the season goes, the more accurate this consideration will become.

I will be understanding which (if any) of these has a significant obedience to parity, then I’ll be putting a % value on that advantage, and I’ll cap appropriately. At that point, I’ll be able to add HITTING+PITCHING to give an accurate parity value that represents both.

Let’s see where it goes!

So far:

Parity Bats have won 0-4.
Parity Pitching is 3-2.
Parity Best of Both is 4-3.

We’ll see what comes of it.

So far though, we’re quite clear that when Parity favours the timber, it’s a good idea to fade that team.

It means that bats go in streaks. Teams cool and heat of with consistency. So betting a hot team to go cold or a cold team to go hot is a bad idea.

So far, that’s the interpretation.

But tomorrow we could have 4 bats win…so it’ll need some time to develop, I’d say about 6 weeks.

If after 4 weeks everything is dead even with no clear advantage, I’ll move on.