This article reinterprets the Raymond Report Value Charts based on your clarification: the values represent the Average Point Spread (Line) that oddsmakers have set for a team when facing an opponent from the A, B, or C tier.
Key Principle: The goal of using these average lines is to find value by comparing the historical market expectation to the current Game Day Line.
- Value on the Favorite: Bet the Favorite if the Game Day Line is significantly lower (a smaller margin) than the Average Line. The market is underrating the Favorite’s expected historical margin of victory.
- Value on the Underdog: Bet the Underdog if the Game Day Line is significantly higher (a larger margin) than the Average Line. The market is overrating the Favorite’s expected historical margin of victory.
🔝 The A-Teams (Elite/Strong): Identifying the Blowout Expectation
“A” teams command the largest average spreads, especially at home against weaker opponents. This highlights where the market expects maximum dominance.
| Team | Type | Home vs A | Home vs B | Home vs C | Road vs A | Road vs B | Road vs C |
| Oklahoma | A | -10.5 | -8.0 | -12.67 | -4.0 | -8.0 | -12.22 |
| Denver | A | -7.0 | -10.33 | -10.6 | -4.0 | -4.5 | -8.0 |
| New York | A | -7.5 | -4.33 | -9.6 | -2.67 | 0.0 | -8.67 |
🔍 A-Team Value Spots
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Oklahoma City (OKC) — The Ultimate Favorite Value Spot:
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Average Line: OKC $\text{Home vs C} = \mathbf{-12.67}$.
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Strategy: If OKC is only favored by -8 or -9 at home against a “C” team, the market is severely underrating their historical dominance. This is a prime spot to bet the OKC Favorite.
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Denver — Road Undervaluation:
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Average Line: DEN $\text{Road vs A} = \mathbf{-4.0}$.
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Strategy: If Denver is somehow favored by -6 or more on the road against an “A” team, the market is overrating them, making the A-Team Underdog a strong value play. The average line suggests a much tighter game than that.
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New York — Road Pick’em Signal:
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Average Line: NYK $\text{Road vs B} = \mathbf{0.0}$ (Pick’em).
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Strategy: If the Knicks are favored by -2 or -3 on the road against a “B” team, the market is clearly overvaluing them compared to the historical norm. Bet the B-Team Underdog.
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🥈 The B-Teams (Above Average/Solid): Finding the Disconnect
“B” teams often show the biggest surprises in line setting, where market perception may not align with historical averages.
| Team | Type | Home vs A | Home vs B | Home vs C | Road vs A | Road vs B | Road vs C |
| Boston | B | -4.0 | -4.0 | -9.8 | -10.0 | -7.0 | -7.0 |
| Cleveland | B | -8.0 | -7.0 | -8.8 | -5.0 | -2.0 | -9.67 |
| Phoenix | B | -2.0 | 0.0 | -4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -2.5 |
🔍 B-Team Value Spots
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Boston — Road Anomaly:
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Average Line: BOS $\text{Road vs A} = \mathbf{-10.0}$. This is an exceptionally high road spread against an elite opponent.
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Strategy: If Boston’s line is only -5 or -6 in this scenario, the market is underrating the Boston Favorite compared to historical betting patterns.
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Cleveland — Consistent Road Dominance:
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Average Line: CLE $\text{Road vs C} = \mathbf{-9.67}$. This high line suggests the market expects Cleveland to be highly effective against weak teams, even away from home.
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Strategy: If Cleveland is only -5 or -6 on the road against a “C” team, you have a strong reason to bet the Cleveland Favorite.
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Phoenix — The Neutral Trap:
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Average Line: PHX $\text{Home vs B}$, $\text{Road vs A}$, $\text{Road vs B}$ all equal $\mathbf{0.0}$.
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Strategy: In any of these three spots, if Phoenix is favored by -3 or more, the market is currently overrating them. Bet the Underdog in these neutral spots.
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🥉 The C-Teams (Average/Weak): The Zero-Sum Game
“C” teams rarely receive the public’s backing, which is why their average lines are typically very low. This makes deviations from zero or a small negative number particularly important.
| Team | Type | Home vs A | Home vs B | Home vs C | Road vs A | Road vs B | Road vs C |
| New Jersey | C | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Utah | C | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 |
🔍 C-Team Value Spots
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New Jersey — Perfect Pick’em:
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Average Line: NJN is $0.0$ across the board.
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Strategy: Any time the Nets are favored by -2 or more in any matchup, the market is overvaluing them compared to their historical average. This is a guaranteed Underdog Value Play.
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Chicago — Home Overrating:
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Average Line: CHI $\text{Home vs C} = \mathbf{-7.5}$. This is a very high expectation for a “C” team against its peers.
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Strategy: If Chicago is favored by -10 or more at home against a “C” team, the market has gone past the historical expectation. Bet the C-Team Underdog in this spot.
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🎯 The High-Value Betting Matrix (Average Line vs. Game Day Line)
To execute this strategy, always identify a spot with the largest deviation from the average line.
| Value Play Type | Scenario (Highest Deviation Potential) | Average Line | Game Day Line Example | Rationale for Bet |
| Favorite | OKC $\text{Home vs C}$ | $-12.67$ | $-8.0$ (Undervalued) | Bet OKC (The $-8$ line is $4.67$ points lower than expected). |
| Underdog | NJN $\text{Any Game}$ | $0.0$ | $-3.5$ (Overvalued) | Bet Opponent (The $-3.5$ line is $3.5$ points higher than expected). |
| Favorite | BOS $\text{Road vs A}$ | $-10.0$ | $-6.0$ (Undervalued) | Bet BOS (The $-6$ line is $4.0$ points lower than expected). |
| Underdog | CHI $\text{Home vs C}$ | $-7.5$ | $-10.5$ (Overvalued) | Bet C-Team (The $-10.5$ line is $3.0$ points higher than expected). |
The true power of this report is in using the static averages to find the dynamic mispricing in the daily market.
