⚾ MLB Market Pulse – Friday, September 5, 2025

Source: Raymond Report Market Value Index (MVI)

The September grind is here, and the MLB betting market is starting to separate the contenders from the pretenders. Today’s MVI chart shows clear momentum signals, with Tampa Bay and San Francisco leading the bullish brigade, while San Diego and Seattle are tripping over their own cleats. Let’s break down the board.

---

🚀 Bullish Momentum (Buy Signals)

These teams are running hot and worth a look before the market fully adjusts.

• Tampa Bay Rays (B) – 🔥 Perfect 7-0 run with a 7-game winning streak and 100% confidence. Market price -110 still hasn’t caught up.

• San Francisco Giants (B) – 6-1 last 7, riding a 4-game streak with 85% confidence. At -110, they’re a live value dog.

• Philadelphia Phillies (B) – 5-2 last 7 with steady confidence at 71%. Market still reasonable at -240.

• NY Yankees (B) – 5-2 with 71% confidence, priced at -200. Bronx Bombers are pushing into playoff mode.

• Texas Rangers (B) – 5-2 run, despite back-to-back losses. Still 71% confidence and sitting at -110.

• St. Louis Cardinals (B) – 5-2 surge, 71% confidence, and a 2-game streak. Market value at even money.

• Arizona Diamondbacks (B) – Another 5-2 club with 71% confidence. Market holding steady at 100.

• Pittsburgh Pirates (C) – Don’t laugh—Pittsburgh has won 5 of 7, riding a 3-game streak with 71% confidence. Market has them at 140, making them a sneaky spoiler.

• Chicago White Sox (C) – Out of nowhere, the Sox are 5-2 with a 5-game heater. Confidence 71% and trading at 190. Classic late-season spoiler play.

---

⚖️ Neutral Zone (Hold Signals)

Teams grinding around .500 form—neither hot enough to ride nor cold enough to fade.

• Milwaukee Brewers (A) – The class of the market, but only 3-4 last 7 with a 1-game skid. Neutral despite 86 wins.

• Toronto Blue Jays (B) – Solid 4-3 stretch, 2-game streak, 57% confidence. Market is pricey at -240.

• Detroit Tigers (B) – 3-4 last 7, but holding Neutral value at -220.

• Chicago Cubs (B) – 4-3, but off a loss. Market overvaluing them at -220.

• Boston Red Sox (B) – 4-3 run, no momentum edge. Trading at -180.

• Houston Astros (B) – 3-4 skid, Neutral confidence, priced at -180.

• NY Mets (B) – Same story: 3-4, Neutral confidence, price -160.

• Kansas City Royals (B) – 3-4, Neutral at -110.

• Cleveland Guardians (B) – Splitting games, Neutral at 100.

• Angels, Miami, Baltimore, Washington (C) – All hovering around average cycles with no sharp edge.

---

📉 Bearish Declines (Sell Signals)

These are the bankroll burners right now—tread carefully.

• Los Angeles Dodgers (B) – Surprisingly flat. 2-5 slide, 3 straight losses, confidence just 28%. Market still at -200.

• San Diego Padres (B) – Brutal 1-6 run, 4-game skid, confidence 14%. A money pit at -160.

• Seattle Mariners (B) – 2-5 last 7 with a 3-game losing streak. Confidence 28%, overpriced at -150.

• Cincinnati Reds (B) – 2-5 slump, confidence 28%, price 100. Market hasn’t adjusted.

• Atlanta Braves (C) – 2-5 run, 28% confidence. Market still listing them at 140.

• Oakland Athletics (C) – 2-5 last 7, losers of 2 straight, confidence 28%. Market at 140.

• Minnesota Twins (C) – Ugly 2-5 skid, 4 straight losses, 28% confidence. Overvalued at 170.

• Colorado Rockies (C) – Worst stock in the market: 1-6 skid, 3-game losing streak, 14% confidence. Market still clinging to 200.

---

📊 Market Takeaways

• Top Buys: Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Yankees, Phillies.

• Underdog Spoilers: White Sox & Pirates—C-teams with real bullish runs.

• Fades: Padres, Mariners, Dodgers—big-name brands but no performance.

• Overvalued Chalk: Blue Jays, Cubs, Tigers—all Neutral but overpriced.

---

👉 Bottom Line:
The MLB market is tightening with just a month to play. Sharp bettors are looking to ride Tampa Bay’s perfect streak and San Francisco’s bullish surge, while fading San Diego’s collapse. Watch out for the sneaky White Sox and Pirates—two C-teams trading well above their market grade.