🏀 Finding NBA Betting Value with the Raymond Report’s A, B, C Teams

This article reinterprets the Raymond Report Value Charts based on your clarification: the values represent the Average Point Spread (Line) that oddsmakers have set for a team when facing an opponent from the A, B, or C tier.

Key Principle: The goal of using these average lines is to find value by comparing the historical market expectation to the current Game Day Line.

• Value on the Favorite: Bet the Favorite if the Game Day Line is significantly lower (a smaller margin) than the Average Line. The market is underrating the Favorite’s expected historical margin of victory.
• Value on the Underdog: Bet the Underdog if the Game Day Line is significantly higher (a larger margin) than the Average Line. The market is overrating the Favorite’s expected historical margin of victory.

🔝 The A-Teams (Elite/Strong): Identifying the Blowout Expectation

“A” teams command the largest average spreads, especially at home against weaker opponents. This highlights where the market expects maximum dominance.

🔍 A-Team Value Spots

1. Oklahoma City (OKC) — The Ultimate Favorite Value Spot:

   • Average Line: OKC $\text{Home vs C} = \mathbf{-12.67}$.

   • Strategy: If OKC is only favored by -8 or -9 at home against a “C” team, the market is severely underrating their historical dominance. This is a prime spot to bet the OKC Favorite.

2. Denver — Road Undervaluation:

   • Average Line: DEN $\text{Road vs A} = \mathbf{-4.0}$.

   • Strategy: If Denver is somehow favored by -6 or more on the road against an “A” team, the market is overrating them, making the A-Team Underdog a strong value play. The average line suggests a much tighter game than that.

3. New York — Road Pick’em Signal:

   • Average Line: NYK $\text{Road vs B} = \mathbf{0.0}$ (Pick’em).

   • Strategy: If the Knicks are favored by -2 or -3 on the road against a “B” team, the market is clearly overvaluing them compared to the historical norm. Bet the B-Team Underdog.

🥈 The B-Teams (Above Average/Solid): Finding the Disconnect

“B” teams often show the biggest surprises in line setting, where market perception may not align with historical averages.

🔍 B-Team Value Spots

1. Boston — Road Anomaly:

   • Average Line: BOS $\text{Road vs A} = \mathbf{-10.0}$. This is an exceptionally high road spread against an elite opponent.

   • Strategy: If Boston’s line is only -5 or -6 in this scenario, the market is underrating the Boston Favorite compared to historical betting patterns.

2. Cleveland — Consistent Road Dominance:

   • Average Line: CLE $\text{Road vs C} = \mathbf{-9.67}$. This high line suggests the market expects Cleveland to be highly effective against weak teams, even away from home.

   • Strategy: If Cleveland is only -5 or -6 on the road against a “C” team, you have a strong reason to bet the Cleveland Favorite.

3. Phoenix — The Neutral Trap:

   • Average Line: PHX $\text{Home vs B}$, $\text{Road vs A}$, $\text{Road vs B}$ all equal $\mathbf{0.0}$.

   • Strategy: In any of these three spots, if Phoenix is favored by -3 or more, the market is currently overrating them. Bet the Underdog in these neutral spots.

🥉 The C-Teams (Average/Weak): The Zero-Sum Game

“C” teams rarely receive the public’s backing, which is why their average lines are typically very low. This makes deviations from zero or a small negative number particularly important.

🔍 C-Team Value Spots

1. New Jersey — Perfect Pick’em:

   • Average Line: NJN is $0.0$ across the board.

   • Strategy: Any time the Nets are favored by -2 or more in any matchup, the market is overvaluing them compared to their historical average. This is a guaranteed Underdog Value Play.

2. Chicago — Home Overrating:

   • Average Line: CHI $\text{Home vs C} = \mathbf{-7.5}$. This is a very high expectation for a “C” team against its peers.

   • Strategy: If Chicago is favored by -10 or more at home against a “C” team, the market has gone past the historical expectation. Bet the C-Team Underdog in this spot.

🎯 The High-Value Betting Matrix (Average Line vs. Game Day Line)

To execute this strategy, always identify a spot with the largest deviation from the average line.

The true power of this report is in using the static averages to find the dynamic mispricing in the daily market.