📊 NBA Market Reality Check Dec 29, 2025

What the Raymond Report SBI Is Telling Us

Monday, December 29, 2025

The NBA betting market has reached a familiar point in the season: the standings look clear, public confidence is high, and pricing is no longer forgiving. This is exactly where the Raymond Report SBI (Sports Betting Index) becomes valuable — not to predict outcomes, but to measure how the market itself has behaved since opening night.

When you strip away narratives and focus on percentages over time, several important patterns emerge.

Straight-Up Favorites Have Controlled the Season

Year-to-date, NBA favorites have won 65.5% of games straight up, placing the SU favorite market firmly in bullish territory.

This result has been consistent across longer timeframes (2-month, 3-month, and YTD), confirming that the league has rewarded superior teams more often than not. The talent gap between top-tier and bottom-tier teams, combined with schedule density and depth, has limited the number of outright upsets.

Key insight:
The market has done a good job identifying which teams should win games.

ATS Favorites Are a Different Story

While favorites have dominated straight up, that success has not translated against the spread.

• ATS favorites are just 47.8% YTD
• Over the last 30 days, that number drops to 40.8%, a clear bearish signal

This disconnect highlights one of the most important market realities of the season: favorites are being priced aggressively, and bettors are paying a premium to back them.

As favorites continue to win games, spreads inflate. Underdogs don’t need to win outright — they simply need to stay within numbers that are no longer efficient.

Key insight:
Winning the game and covering the spread are two separate markets — and they are moving in opposite directions.

Totals Have Remained Efficient Over Time

At first glance, daily totals results appear volatile. There have been stretches where overs dominate, followed by sharp corrections favoring unders.

However, over meaningful sample sizes, the totals market has settled into neutral efficiency:

• YTD Over rate: 51.4%
• 1-month, 2-month, and 3-month windows all remain neutral

This tells us the totals market is reacting quickly to scoring trends, pace adjustments, and lineup changes. Short-term runs exist, but they do not persist.

Key insight:
Totals punish reactionary betting. The longer the timeframe, the less edge exists without precise filtering.

Timeframe Matters More Than Bet Type

One of the most revealing aspects of the SBI is how market behavior changes by timeframe:

• Short-term (1–3 days): Emotion-driven swings, headline reactions, volatility
• Mid-term (7–30 days): ATS inefficiencies begin to show
• Long-term (YTD): Structural truths emerge

Over time, three conclusions remain consistent:

1. Favorites win games
2. Underdogs cover spreads
3. Totals revert toward equilibrium

Ignoring timeframe leads to misreading the market.

What the NBA Market Is Rewarding in 2025

Based on SBI data through December 29:

• Straight-up favorites remain reliable in selective situations
• ATS value has leaned toward underdogs
• Totals require patience and discipline, not trend chasing

The NBA market is not broken — it is doing exactly what an efficient market should do: pricing popularity and taxing impatience.

Final Thought

The Raymond Report SBI doesn’t tell bettors what to play. It shows where the market has already paid and where it has taken money back.

As the season moves into its second half, understanding these patterns becomes more important than any single matchup.

In this market, success comes from reading price, not performance.

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If you want, next we can:

• Turn this into a recurring “NBA SBI Market Watch” series
• Add charts or callouts for ATSStats.com formatting
• Create a short X / social teaser that links back to this article

Just tell me where you want to take it next.