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🧠 MLB Market Watch: Home Favorites vs. B-Grade Teams (2025)

When any MLB team plays at home vs. a B-Grade opponent, the results this season have leaned toward the expected β€” but with a few surprise patterns savvy bettors can bank on.

🏠 SU Record: 198-130 (60.4%)
πŸ“‰ O/U Record: 153-161-14 (UNDERs cashing 51.3%)

This situational trend tells us home teams are handling business, but the total is showing a slight lean toward the UNDER β€” a stat not to be ignored as early-season fatigue sets in.


πŸ”₯ Spotlight on the Texas Rangers

πŸ“ When: Home vs. B-Grade Teams
βœ… Straight Up: 10-3
⛔️ O/U: 1-12 (yes, 12 UNDERS!)

The Rangers have quietly become one of the sharpest fades on totals in these matchups. With an average game total of 8.46, the combined score sits at just 5.76 β€” nearly 3 runs under. Bettors hammering the UNDER have made a killing.

🏟️ Texas has also delivered the goods SU, covering 10 of their 13 games in this role. A rare team that’s winning and driving totals UNDER. That’s called a value window.


πŸ“Š Other Team Notes:

  • New York Yankees: 8-4 SU, 7-5 O/U β€” Home favorites getting it done
  • Boston Red Sox: 6-4 SU, but 4-5-1 O/U β€” Not the same UNDER edge as Texas
  • Toronto Blue Jays: 8-5 SU, 7-6 O/U β€” Steady SU with mild OVER lean
  • Baltimore Orioles: 5-6 SU, 9-2 O/U β€” The OVER team of this group
  • Chicago White Sox: 4-8 SU, 5-5-2 O/U β€” Fade material with inconsistency

🧠 Raymond Report Tip:

Use the Value Index, team grades, and current cycle indicators to find soft lines. When B-Grade teams visit, don’t just look at SU β€” examine the psychology of the total. Texas shows us how valuable that angle can be.

πŸ“‰ If the market posts a high number, but both teams are low run-producers in current cycles, the UNDER is your friend.


πŸ“² Grab the full situational breakdowns every day at ATS STATS and follow the law of averages β€” not the crowd.

#MLB #SportsBetting #RaymondReport #ATSSTATS #TexasRangers #UnderTrend

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Ron Raymond
Ron Raymond is a veteran sports handicapper and founder of ATSstats.com, creator of the Raymond Report sports betting system. Active in the industry since 1996, Ron has nearly three decades of experience analyzing market cycles, performance indicators, and value metrics across the NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB, and CFL. Ron’s data-driven approach has helped thousands of bettors think strategically, manage risk, and win with confidence.