Tampa Bay Lightning
Time: 18:35:00Generated from 66 Previous Games
O/U :5.52.81 = 6
So living and learning, looking back at the COLORADO vs MONTREAL blog post, we saw that everything in the ATSSTATS situations was dead even except for the SUPER TRENDS column.
For tonight, for all intents and purpose, TBL is likewise statistically deadlocked with OTT, except for the SUPER STATS section:
10 Super League Trends
|10 Super League Trends|
Granted, this isn’t close to the disparity that was there between COL and MTL, but it’s at least notable and it has TAMPA BAY as the edge favourite. Also it should be noted that OTT is slightly ahead in the Head-To-Head category.
And of course the historical stat from the team trends that everyone is buzzing about:
|When OTTAWA played as Home Team- Vs TAMPA BAY||SU: 25-5-0|
So there is definitely some systems that clash between these teams, that leaves OTT advantageous…but the big question picture that we should ask is, “IF NOT NOW, WHEN?”
We should not look at TBL 4GF average L5G.
They were playing TOR, VAN, NJD, FLA PHX.
We should look at how they played BOS to the edge and PHX to the edge 5 and 6 games ago.
We should not look at OTT 4.6GA average L5G.
They were up against teams like: NYR COL MTL NSH WPG.
We should look at how they let NSH take 4GA, WPG 3GA, CGY 4GA and EDM 3GA.
Not only should we think that this is a great spot to pick TBL to win, but we should really like the o6.0 here as well. After looking, it’s actually o5.5. That’s HUGE value.
PARITY VALUE INDEX:
|Time||Teams||SU-L3-Record||Value||Season SU Record||Value||SU Result|
|TAMPA BAYOTTAWA||3 – 00 – 3||0100||38 – 3128 – 40||44.9358.82||0.220.79|
So the PVI is showing us that OTT is overdue for a win today and TBL is overdue for a loss today.
This information is very good for people that are betting negative progression systems.
(betting on the same team to win until they do)
However for the intents and purposes of trying to pick value and snipe winners, then what we learn from this is that TBL is on a winning streak and OTT is on a losing streak.
While it’s true that PVI is based around a system that says, “what goes up must come down”, it also will always help tell us who iss up and who is down.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE:
LEAGUE : NHL
|TeamName||Current Season||Last 7 Games||Last 14 Games|
|TeamName||W-L||Win %||Loss %||SOS %||P R||W-L||Win %||Loss %||SOS %||P R||W-L||Win %||Loss %||SOS %||P R|
|OTT||28 – 40||41.18||58.82||50.33||0.46||1 – 6||14.29||85.71||48.98||0.32||4 – 10||28.57||71.43||49.49||0.39|
|TBL||38 – 31||55.07||44.93||49.53||0.52||4 – 3||57.14||42.86||51.02||0.54||6 – 8||42.86||57.14||47.96||0.45|
SOS shows us that OTT has the BY FAR worst SOS in the league, not only in the L7G but in the L14G as well.
SOS shows us that TBL was playing a little bit slackly L14G but has begun playing to their par L7G.
Again, if we think back to PVI, if OTT was somehow HOTTER their L14G or L7 games than their par, then we could suspect that something ought to give and they should be playing for the win. But when we see the SOS show us a picture like this, it takes the air out of the “what goes up” factor and it reinvests that air into the “who’s hot, who’s not” consideration.
All in all, both PVI and SOS are fantastic statistics to ponder and interpret as long as we do it on a case by case basis.
Did you know:
- Ottawa is 1-8 at home L9G?
Did you know:
- TBL might be 3rd in their conference but they’re only 7 points from the playoff cutoff?
Today’s predictions are:
TBL to win 5-3. (good value)
TBL@OTT to go o5.5 (great value)