Time: 18:10:00Generated from 50 Previous Games
SIDE :-1434.81 = 8.54
We don’t deal with the word “lock” here in Capper’s Corner, but with that said, here is our LOCK OF THE DAY and why we chose it:
In for PITTSBURGH tonight is Edinson Volquez. Volquez had a stellar season opener where he pitched 1.17ERA across 7.2IP vs the St Louis Cardinals. But there are 2 points that we should understand here:
- STL is ranked 27th in the league and hitting with a toothless .212 batting average.
- Volquez had a terrible Spring Training where he pitched 9.64ERA across 14IP
So based on these extenuating contributors, Volquez’s 2014 Regular Season is elite, but we should consider it as a soft-elite, not established, not chiseled in stone.
But with that said:
- Historically Volquez has 68 at bats under .300 vs MILWAUKEE. (across 7 bats)
- Historically Volquez has 31 at bats over .300 vs MILWAUKEE. (across 2 bats)
It’s true, Volquez, historically, has Milwaukee bats under his thumb.
This is the one and only threat that Pittsburgh brings into tonight’s contest…but with that said…what is the sound of one hand clapping?
In for MILWAUKEE tonight is Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo has pitched an elite 0.00ERA across 12.2IP in his last 2 starts. Gallardo had a reasonable 3.98ERA across 20.1IP in his Spring Training.
- In his first 2 starts, Gallardo faced ATL (23rd .228 avg) and BOS (9th .259 avg)
So based on what we’ve see from Gallardo in 2014, Spring Training and Regular Season, he may arguably be the hottest pitcher in the league right now.
To support that statement, let’s look at his history vs Milwaukee:
- Historically, Gallardo has 174 at bats under .300 vs PITTSBURGH. (*across 10 batters*)
- Historically, Gallardo has 10 at bats over .300 vs PITTSBURGH. (across 2 batters)
We have yet to see a pitcher with a more established and spotless record, than what Gallardo has built for himself vs PITTSBURGH over the years.Gallardo is well established, hard-elite, and well defined. Gallardo’s excellence is chiseled in stone.
Whatever good we can say about Volquez, (Pittsburgh’s only ace in tonight’s contest), we can say x10 about Gallardo.
- In Spring Training, Pittsburgh was 12th in hitting with an decent average of .274
- In the Regular Season, Pittsburgh is 26th in hitting with a lackluster average of .225
- In Spring Training, Milwaukee was 19th in hitting with a mediocre average of .262
- In the Regular Season, Milwaukee is 3rd in hitting with a royal average of .277
- The PITTSBURGH bullpen has accrued a better ERA than most other teams with a 2.23ERA
- The MILWUAKEE bullpen has arguably the best bullpen in the entire of MLB with a blazing *0.91ERA*
- When PITTSBURGH team played as a 120 to 140 Road Underdog – During a night game – 2nd game of a series – Scored 2 or less runs FOR in their last game – Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series 9-27-0
- When PITTSBURGH team played as a 120 to 140 road Underdog – Playing on Saturday – Vs. Right handed pitchers 11-28-0
- When PITTSBURGH team Played as road team as a Underdog – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Playing on Saturday 55-106-0
- When PITTSBURGH team Played as road team as a Underdog – During a night game – Playing on Saturday 38-92-0
- When PITTSBURGH team played as a 120 to 140 road Underdog – During a night game – Playing on Saturday 7-27-0
- When PITTSBURGH team played as a road team – Playing on Saturday – During the month of April 11-23-0
- When ANY MLB Team played as a 120 to 140 Road Underdog – Coming off vs. National League opponent – Last 5 years – 2nd game of a series – Allowed 4 runs AGAINST in their last game – Coming off a Loss vs. NL CENTRAL opponent 4-13-0
- When MILWAUKEE team played as a Home team – 2nd game of a series – Playing on Saturday – Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent – Allowed 2 runs AGAINST in their last game 12-3-0
- When MILWAUKEE team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – Playing on Saturday 10-3-0
- When MILWAUKEE team Played as home team as a Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – Playing on Saturday 32-14-0
- When MILWAUKEE team Played as home team as a Favorite – Vs NL Conference – Playing on Saturday 76-41-0
- When ANY MLB Team played as a -140 to -160 Home Favorite – Coming off vs. National League opponent – 2nd game of a series – Before a conference game – Coming off a 2 run win – Coming off 1 under 15-1-0
|49 – 23 – 0|
|27 – 11 – 0|
ATSSTATS let’s us know that we’re unarguably on the right track with the MILWAUKEE pick.
Again, ATSSTATS is not a crystal ball, but this is about as strong as an indication as ATSSTATS can give. We find ATSSTATS to be slightly more effective when predicting the Over-Under, but for our intents and purposes, we can definitely use a SU indication that is this strong.
Tonight’s Prediction: MILWAUKEE to win 5-2.