Los Angeles vs. Detroit
Preview April 20th, 2014
Los Angeles Angels
Generated from 41 Previous Games
SIDE :-1425.98 = 12.64
Visiting Teams on the weekends are such a treat, especially when up against brandname teams! This kind of value can’t be beat and should not go unattended.
Let’s jump into where the value is:
Starting the bump for Los Angeles today is Hector Santiago:
- Historically, Santiago has 9 at bats vs DET batters over a .300 avg (vs 2 batters)
- Historically, Santiago has 42 at bats vs DET batters under a .300 avg (vs 6 batters)
Starting on the mound for Detroit today is Rick Porcello:
- Historically, Porcello has 38 at bats vs LAA batters over a .300 avg (vs 8 batters)
- Historically, Porcello has 49 at bats vs LAA batters under a .300 avg (vs 3 batters)
- Santiago threw an average 3.63ERA in Spring Training across 22.0IP
- Santiago has backslid in his solidity with a 4.96ERA in the Regular Season.
- Porcello threw a rotten 7.85ERA in Spring Training across 18.1IP
- Porcello has improved to a reasonable 4.15ERA in the Regular Season.
- SANTIAGO is 0-2 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.500.
- PORCELLO is 3-4 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 8.34 and a WHIP of 1.765.
In his last outing, Santiago threw 7IP giving up only 1 run against Oakland bats. Remarkably he achieved this with only 3 SO. Santiago is depended heavily on the outfield as he is a high Air-Out pitcher; therefore, although Detroit will have a tough time finding the holes, they won’t be as vulnerable to the double-play. LAA will have to avoid giving up lead off singles and are vulnerable to the sac-flys with Detroit runners on base.
Santiago has marked 13K across 16.3IP this season.
In his last outing, Porcello threw a terrible 6.3IP giving up 5ER against some of the slackest hitting in the league against San Diego. Porcello is depended heavily on the infield as he forces grounders, and therefore, double-plays will follow. LAA will have to do better than hitting singles because that plays right into Porcello’s double-play wheelhouse.
Porcello has marked 17K across 19.3IP this season.
Did you know:
- LA ANGELS is 12-6 against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
- LAA batted 3rd with a .803OPS in Spring Training.
- DET batted 10th with a .769OPS in Spring Training.
- LAA is batting 3rd in the league with a .761OPS in the Regular Season so far.
- DET is batting 9th in the league with a .732OPS in the Regular Season so far.
In short, Los Angeles is dynamite at the plate this season but Detroit is no slouch either. Both teams should be making lots of contact and I suspect a high scoring affair here today.
- The Angles have a slack 5.14ERA in the pen so far this season.
- The Tigers have a slack 5.19ERA in the pen so far this season.
Given that neither of these pitchers are pitching solid ball, given that both teams are batting top 10, and given that the bullpens guarantee a high probability of scoring right through to the end of the 9th, we like this game to go OVER the posted total of 8.5.
- When LOS ANGELES ANGELS team played as a Road team – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Last 3 years – Coming off 1 under – Coming off a lost in game 2 of a series 12-3-0
In this position, LAA has typically played some solid ball. Although the whole of ATSSTATS makes the historical case for DET to be more likely to win, it’s not an very strong case, but the case is there that historically DET is better in this position. This needs to be weighed with the real-time analysis in the categories above, and in this instance, taken with a grain of salt.
The ridiculous value on the LAA pick more than justifies this.
|When LOS ANGELES ANGELS played as Home or Away Team- in the month of April||OU: 7-3-0|
|When R PORCELLO ‘s Team played as Home Team- in the month of April||OU: 9-2-0|
|When DETROIT played as Home Favourite- Vs AL West Division||OU: 26-14-5|
|When LOS ANGELES ANGELS team played as a 120 to 140 road Underdog – Playing on Sunday – Vs. Right handed pitchers||OU: 14-8-5|
|When DETROIT team played as a -120 to -140 home Favorite – During the month of April – Vs Non Division Opponent||OU: 13-6-2|
|When DETROIT team Played as home team as a Favorite – During the month of April – Total is between 8.5 to 9.0||OU: 30-14-4|
|When ANY MLB Team played as a 120 to 140 Road Underdog – During the month of April – Last 4 years – 3rd game of a series – Scored 2 or less runs FOR in their last game||OU: 18-11-0|
|When LOS ANGELES ANGELS Played as road team as a Underdog – During Last 2 Years – With 1 Under||OU: 15 – 9 – 1|
Again, we’ve seen stronger cases to be made for the Total, but again, given the real-time narrative of this matchup, we think that this would be an excellent pick in combination with the LAA ML as well. Looking at Porcello’s rotten history vs LAA batters, for DET to win would mean that they would need to have some smoking hot bats. So even if DET does manage to take the win here, we’d assign an extremely high likelyhood that they would need to go o8.5 in order to achieve it.
Today’s Prediction: LOS ANGELES to win 7-5. Game to go OVER the total.