Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
Preview April 21st, 2014
Generated from 54 Previous Games
SIDE :-1804.25 = 7.29
Today’s pick has a new consideration that we’ll be testing and following up on. Despite the odds on Atlanta, we are all about the Miami pick. Let’s get into it and see why:
Starting the bump for Miami today is Tom Koehler:
- Historically, Koehler has below average effects vs Atlanta batters, but the sample is only across a few games and therefore won’t factor into today’s analysis.
Starting on the mound for Atlanta today is Julio Teheran:
- Historically, Teheran has above average effects vs Miami batters, but the sample is only across a few games and therefore won’t factor into today’s analysis.
- Koehler threw an average 1.50ERA in Spring Training across 18.0IP
- Koehler has maintained excellence with a 1.89ERA in the Regular Season.
- Teheran threw a rotten 1.80ERA in Spring Training across 18.1IP
- Teheran has improved to a reasonable 1.93ERA in the Regular Season.
- KOEHLER is 0-1 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.700.
- TEHERAN is 3-0 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 2.84 and a WHIP of 1.263.
In his last outing, Koehler threw 7IP giving up 0ER vs 7th place Washington bats (OSP). Remarkably he achieved this with only 3 SO. Koehler is depended heavily on the infield as he is a high Ground-Out pitcher. This means that Atlanta might have a tough time getting runners into scoring position as they will be vulnerable to the double-play. Koehler has only marked 10K across 19IP this season, but has maintained an elite ERA so far.
In his last outing, Teheran threw 9IP giving up 0ER against 16th place Philadephia bats (OSP). Teheran is an Air-Out pitcher and is therefore depended heavily on the outfield. Considering that Miami Marlins are #2 in the league in .AVG and #2 in .OPS, it means that we should expect them to get some hits. Since Teheran isn’t a GO pitcher, turning double plays is not in his wheelhouse the way that they were in Verlander’s yesterday in his outing vs LAA.
Teheran has only marked 13K across 28IP this season, but has maintained an elite ERA so far.
Did you know:
- ATLANTA is 12-6 against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
- MIA batted 25th with a .695OPS in Spring Training.
- ATL batted 15th with a .746OPS in Spring Training.
- MIA is batting 2nd in the league with a .760OPS in the Regular Season so far.
- ATL is batting 12th in the league with a .725OPS in the Regular Season so far.
In short, Miami is dynamite at the plate this season but Detroit is no slouch either. Considering the elite pitching, although both teams should be making some contact today, I suspect a low scoring affair here today.
- The Marlins have a slack 3.75ERA in the pen so far this season.
- The Braves have a slack 4.53ERA in the pen so far this season.
Considering Atlanta’s vulnerable bullpen, Miami’s #2 bats should keep them in this game with chances to win through all 9 innings.
There is lots of red here, but at these odds, it’s hard to see how we could go wrong betting on arguably the best bats in the league in combination with one of the hotttest pitchers in the league to give them chances deep into the game.
ATSSTATS and the RAYMOND REPORT say that historically we’d be absolutely nuts to bet Miami here. The case for ATLANTA is extremely strong in this position, but for the real-time considerations above, (namely the fact that Teheran is not a GO pitcher) this game will be one of the very few examples where we’ll agree to disagree with ATS Stats.
Tonight’s Prediction: MIAMI to win 4-3.