Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Preview April 22nd, 2014
Generated from 69 Previous Games
Toronto Blue Jays
5.13 = 10.17
Tough board today, but we think we found some value with Baltimore here today.
Here is how we figure:
Starting the bump for Baltimore today is Miguel Gonzalez:
- Historically, Gonzalez has 0 at bats vs TOR batters OVER a .300 avg (0/8 batters)
- Historically, Gonzalez has 77 at bats vs TOR batters UNDER a .300 avg (8/8 batters)
Starting on the mound for Toronto today is R.A. Dickey:
- Historically, Dickey has 27 at bats vs TOR batters OVER a .300 avg (5/11 batters)
- Historically, Dickey has 67 at bats vs TOR batters UNDER a .300 avg (6/11 batters)
- Gonzalez threw an average 3.54ERA in Spring Training across 20.1IP
- Gonzalez has slipped to a 6.28ERA in the Regular Season.
- Dickey threw a rotten 5.79ERA in Spring Training across 18.1IP
- Dickey has improved to a reasonable 6.26ERA in the Regular Season.
- GONZALEZ is 4-2 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 3.02 and a WHIP of 0.963
- DICKEY is 2-3 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 4.34 and a WHIP of 1.196
In his last outing, Gonzalez threw 5IP giving up 0ER vs 15th place Tampa bats (OSP). Remarkably he achieved a season high amount of strike-outs marking 6K.
Gonzalez has only marked 10K across 14.1IP this season.
In his last outing, Dickey threw 4.3IP giving up a questionable 5ER vs 9th place Minnesota bats (OSP). Dickey’s knuckleball makes him a solid Ground-Out pitcher and therefore depends on the infield. This will allow Toronto to get out from tight spots with infield double-plays, but with Dickey not throwing his stuff, what would normally be double-plays could turn into plural line drives straight back up the middle.
Dickey has only marked 10K across 14IP this season.
Did you know:
- BALTIMORE is 22-18 against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
- TORONTO is 11-8 against BALTIMORE @TOR over the last 3 seasons
- BAL batted 11th with a .763OPS in Spring Training.
- TOR batted 12th with a .763OPS in Spring Training.
- BAL is batting 17nd in the league with a .701OPS in the Regular Season so far.
BAL is averaging 5.6 runs on the road this season.
- TOR is batting 20th in the league with a .688OPS in the Regular Season so far.
TOR is averaging 4.5 runs at home this season.
These are a couple teams with equally competent bats so it’s all up to the pitching.
- The Orioles have a respectable 3.09ERA in the pen so far this season.
- The Jays have a respectable 3.90ERA in the pen so far this season.
Considering their advantage in the Pen, and considering Dickey’s issues of late, BAL should have chances to win through all 9 innings.
- When ANY MLB Team (Toronto) played as a -120 to -140 Home Favorite – Vs AL Conference – Playing on Tuesday – Before a division game – Coming off a Loss vs. AL CENTRAL opponent 24-5-0
- When ANY MLB Team (Toronto) played as a Home team – With 1 day off – Vs AL EAST opponent – Playing on Tuesday – Coming off a lost in game 3 of a series – Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a 1 game loss 27-15-0
ATSSTATS (Super Stats) historically has TORONTO to win in this position, but in the other 4 categories, these teams come up perfectly equal. As much as we hate to look past ATSSTATS, today, it looks like that’s where the value is.
Today’s Prediction: BALTIMORE to win 7-4.