Generated from 49 Previous Games
O/U :83.68 = 8.71
Let’s look at tonight’s matchup where the Nationals will probably trounce Houston.
Here is why:
In today’s matchup, we’ll bank on a few things…
- Gonzalez’s less than optimal record vs Altuve, Fowler and Guzman
- Gonzalez unpredictability w/ 3.00ERA all games, 5.25ERA at home, and 4.50ERA L3G
- HOU averaging 4 runs/game L3G.
- Gonzalez‘s record vs HOU despite his poor vs. record
- Fantasy sites rank Gio as 3rd highest paid
- HOU’s inert bats vs. Lefty starters averaging 2.7 runs/game/
- HOU’s extremely vulnerable bullpen w/ 6.05ERA all games and 6.61ERA at away
- HOU’s ‘bottom of barrel’ rank in team hitting
- WSH being 7-1 L3S vs HOU
- Gonzalez‘s ERA vs HOU who is 2-0 vs HOU with an ERA of 1.69 and a WHIP of 0.938
Starting the bump for Washington today is Gio Gonzalez:
- Historically,Gonzalez has given up .AVG to Altuve, Fowler, and Guzman. But with that said, his record vs HOU in terms of .ERA is a whole different story. Hits don’t win games. Runs win games. So although we expect Gio to give up a few hits, especially since he’s given up a copious 17 hits L3G combined, the expectation here would be that HOU gets burned with many runners stranded.
Starting on the mound for Houston today is Jared Cosart:
- Historically,Cosart is completely untested by WSH batters and so this is a massive question mark. With that said, Cosart has a quite vulnerable 6.12ERA across all games. He does a little better at home with a 4.09ERA, but that’s quickly offset by his last 3 starts where he’s averaging 7.71ERA. This is a huge piece of our consideration with the Nationals pick tonight considering that the Nats are a top 10 team in .OPS
- Gonzalez is throwing a fair 3.00ERA all games.
- Gonzalez is throwing a vulnerable 5.25ERA on the road.
- Gonzalez is throwing a mediocre 4.50ERA L3G.
- Cosart is throwing a terrible 6.12ERA this season.
- Cosart is throwing a so-so 4.09ERA at home.
- Cosart is throwing a laughable 7.71ERA L3G.
- Gonzalez, in his last outing, gave up only 4 hits in his last outing vs 3rd place LAA (.OPS).
- Cosart allowed only 4 hits in his last outing vs 25th place SEA, but allowed 7 hits vs OAK two games ago.This makes Cosart a little bit of a wildcard here tonight, but considering SEA bats can’t be compared with WSH bats, we expect to see a little bit more action at the plate with Cosart on the bump.
Did you know:
- Gonzalez is 2-0 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 1.69 and a WHIP of 0.938.
Bottom line here, if Gonzalez pitches any kind of a game at all, Washington’s chances to win should be locked in.
- WSH is batting 8th in the league with a .731OPS in the Regular Season.
WSH is averaging 5.6 runs on the road this season.
WSH is averaging3.9 vs Righty Starters.
- HOU is batting 27th in the league with a .646OPS in the Regular Season.
HOU is averaging 3.3 runs at home this season.
HOU is averaging 2.7 vs Lefty Starters.
There is nothing equal about these bats. The Nats have a clear advantage. Could there be a bigger advantage here in terms of hitting? Not likely. Not with the Astros facing a Lefty. This game is all on Gonzalez to win or lose.
- The Nationals have a good 2.28ERA in the pen so far this season.
Their pen maintains a solid 3.45ERA on the road.
- The Astros have a mediocre 6.05ERA in the pen so far this season.
Their pen is a vulnerable 6.61ERA at home.
The Nats have the advantage in the pen. In fact, with a pen like this, it not only means that Washington has 9 full inning to peel labels off the Rawlings, but also it means, more likely, that WSH will win this by the RL. That said, we don’t deal with RL predictions here, our wheelhouse is ML. All-in-all, of all the picks that merit bets, this one is at least middle-road.
Did you know:
- WASHINGTON as a road favorite of -125 to -150: SU 29-11 L3S.
- HOUSTON when playing against a team with a winning record: SU 48-130 L3S.
Some stats to support Washington:
- When GONZALEZ’s Team played as Home or Away Team- With a spread between 140 and 160: SU 21-11-0
- When WASHINGTON team played as a -140 to -160 road Favorite – Vs. Right handed pitchers – During a night game: SU 16-9-0
- When HOUSTON team played as a 120 to 140 home Underdog – After a non conference game – Before a non division game: SU 9-21-0
- When HOUSTON played as Home Team- With a spread between 140 and 160: SU 3-12-0
- When J Cosart ‘s Team played as Home or Away Team- With Total between 7.5 and 8.0: SU 0-6-0
- When HOUSTON played as any home/road team – During Last 4 Years – With 1 Under: SU 60 – 114 – 0
Some stats to threaten Washington:
- When HOUSTON team played as a Home team – Before a non division game – During a night game – Coming off 1 under – Coming off a 2 game winning streak: SU 9-6-0
- When WASHINGTON team played as a Road team – 1st game of a series – During the month of April – Coming off a Home loss – Coming off a 1 game loss: SU 3-7-0
- When WASHINGTON team played as a Road team – During the month of April – After a non division game – Allowed 4 runs or less AGAINST in their last game – Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher: SU 4-12-0
ATS Stats has made stronger cases, and we should be at least a tiny bit nervous about the historical position that Washington is in here; but with that said, we should feel that for every chance that WSH has to go wrong, HOU has two more. At -150 odds, this consideration pays off all day long.
Tonight’s Prediction: WASHINGTON to win 6-3.