Generated from 56 Previous Games
Toronto Blue Jays
SIDE :-1055.36 = 9.65
Today’s pick is a no contest. Like always, there is lots that can go wrong, but hands down it looks like it has the most value on the card.
On the bump for Cleveland is Danny Salazar:
Salazar doesn’t have enough AB vs TORONTO to justify a historical trend.
- Salazar is pitching a vulnerable 5.64ERA all games.
- Salazar is pitching a sloppy 6.45ERA on the road.
- Salazar has been cleaning up his act in his L3G with a manageable 3.44ERA.
Did you know:
- SALAZAR is 1-0 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 0.500.
On the bump for Toronto is J.A. Happ:
Happ doesn’t have enough AB vs CLEVELAND to justify a historical trend.
- Happ is pitching a questionable 4.63ERA all games.
- Happ is pitching a wreckless 15.45ERA at home. (across 2.3IP)
- Happ is pitching a 4.91 in his L3G.
Did you know:
- HAPP is 1-0 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 1.29 and a WHIP of 0.857.
So all in all, what can we say about the pitching?
Well we can say that across 36.7IP, Salazar has established himself as a lower tier pitcher. We can expect more or less of the same but need to respect that his L3G have shown some improvement from ‘poor’ to ‘fair’. Danny faced some fairly tough hitting teams L3G and kept his ERA reasonable, so he looks to be improving while averaging 7K per game across his last 3 outings.
Expect some resistance as Salazar pitches some of his best ball to night…but with that said…”Salazar’s best” and “THE best” are nowhere near the same part of the scale.
We can say that across 11.7IP, Happ has shown us 2 sides in his 2 outings so far this season. The fact that Toronto didn’t have him in rotation says something, but at the same time, that puts a chip on his shoulder where K after K and a low ERA is the only way to be rid of it.
In his first start, Happ took that chip off his shoulder when he pitched 5 innings with 0.00ERA.
Then the record skipped a little bit when he faced the Angles and their #2 (.OPS) hitting. He was pulled after 7 hits in 2.3IP. But with that said, he threw 4K in those 2 innings, and it was against arguably the best bats in the league. It should also be noted that as deadly as LAA are at hitting, they do their best work vs LH Pitchers.
So we’ve seen both sides of the scale with Happ so far this year in his 2 outings. He will be a little bit of a wildcard tonight, but maybe we can learn something about Cleveland bats that will help clarify where Happ stands tonight.
- Cleveland is currently sitting in 13th place with a .713 OPS.
- Cleveland averages 4.3 runs per game on the road.
- Cleveland averages 3.3 runs per game vs LH Pitchers.
- Toronto is currently sitting in 2nd place with a .756 OPS.
- Toronto averages 5.4 runs per game at home.
- Toronto averages 4.8 runs per game vs RH Pitchers.
So the entire case for tonight’s matchup lies in the fact that LAA excels vs LH Pitchers while CLE most certainly does NOT.
Ultimately, what this pick boils down to, is Cleveland’s incapacity to face LH Pitchers with any kind of efficacy.
Cleveland pens are 3.14 all games.
Cleveland pens are 3.81 on the road.
Toronto pens are 5.33 all games.
Toronto pens are 4.98 at home.
So this could be problematic. Once Happ sits down, Cleveland will likely have the last 3 innings to pound away on RH pitching. Toronto needs to be leading by the runline when the 7th rolls around. So that’s the other point that this pick is banking on.
As solid as SFG, CWs and MIN are hitting, they are not the Toronto Blue Jays. Salazar has his work cut out for him if he wants to give his team a chance at the win.
- Toronto averages 5.0 runs per game all season.
- Toronto averages 5.75 runs per game L14G
Toronto are showing no signs of slowing down.
So with all of these wildcards at play, I get the feeling that this sits to be just about even chances for both teams. With Toronto paying even money at -103, this is the definition of a ‘Pick ‘Em’.
So if we can find some consensus within the ATS STATS database for one team or the other, we could justify the odds and we might find value.
Historical trends to SUPPORT the Toronto pick:
|When TORONTO played as Home Favourite- Vs AL Central Division||SU: 14-6-0|
|When TORONTO played as Favourite- in the month of May||SU: 21-14-0|
|When TORONTO played as Home Favourite- in the month of May||SU: 32-18-0|
|When TORONTO team played as a -100 to -120 home Favorite – After a conference game – Playing on Thursday||SU: 10-4-0|
|When CLEVELAND played as Road Team- With Total between 9.5 and 10.0||SU: 13-27-0|
Historical trends to THREATEN the Toronto pick:
|When CLEVELAND team played as a 100 to 120 Road Underdog – During a night game – Coming off vs. American League opponent – Coming off a 1 game win – Coming off a Road win as a Favorite||SU: 9-5-0|
|When CLEVELAND played as any home/road team – During Last 2 Years – With 1 Over – Won Last Game by 11 Runs or Less – With SU Record of 3 Win 2 Lost in L5G||SU: 8 – 4 – 0|
So we’ve seen stronger historical considerations, but this is fairly one-sided towards Toronto.
While ATS STATS isn’t a crystal ball, (anything can happen on any given night), there is one major function it’s got, and that’s positional narrative.
With all of these considerations that we see, W/L record of last 7 games, before playing, vs conference, after playing division, etc etc etc etc, there is a certain positional commentary here that will include slumps, hot streaks, travel, days off, etc etc.
So if we really want to pin down where ATS Stats comes in handy, it would be to imagine that this game is TORONTO vs TORONTO. Toronto A vs Toronto B.
Certain things are different:
- The travel due to conference/divisional considerations.
(physical difference crossing timezones and wear and tear of travel etc.
- The handedness of the pitcher they’re facing. (physical difference)
- One team is coming off a 2-4 L6G. (psychological difference)
- One team is coming off a 4-2 L6G. (psychological difference)
So you see….although Toronto A and Toronto B might have IDENTICAL rosters, their POSITIONAL situation might be COMPLETELY different.
And what ATS STATS is telling us here is…TORONTO is in a strong historical-position.
The real-time synopsis rundown at the top of this page is the real-time-position that factors in specific things like specific pitchers and the batting of late/the batting overall.
The Raymond Report explains how these teams stack up against each other in comparison to the rest of the league providing a kind of versus-position.
It’s amazing to think that a team with all three of these tilted convincingly in their favour could ever lose…but for those of us that have been doing this…that’s why we respect money management and the idea of protecting our bottom line.
|RAYMOND REPORT FOR MLB|
|Game Date – 2014-05-15|
|Road Team :- (3015) CLEVELAND|
|Home Team :- (3016 )TORONTO|
|When CLEVELAND is a Road Team||When Any MLB Team is a Road Team||Differential %||When CLEVELAND is a Road Team,the O/U||When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U||Differential % on game going UNDER|
|Situations||Current Season||Current Season||Differential %||Current Season||Current Season||Differential %|
|Total is 9.5 (since 1996)||112-135||9-7||50.8||127-120-0||9-7-0||46.17|
|vs Non-Division opponent||5-10||144-191||38.16||7-6-2||138-176-21||51.1|
|vs Conference opponent||5-7||93-107||44.09||6-4-2||83-101-16||47.45|
|Playing in the month of May||3-2||95-115||52.62||3-0-2||89-103-18||26.83|
|Playing on Thursday||0-2||36-30||27.28||2-0-0||33-31-2||24.22|
|Played as road Underdog||5-13||185-278||33.87||8-8-2||192-234-37||52.47|
|After a Non-Division Game||3-10||144-184||33.49||7-4-2||132-174-22||46.61|
|After a Conference Game||4-7||98-113||41.41||5-4-2||86-110-15||50.28|
|vs AL CENTRAL Division Opponent||2-5||43-65||34.19||4-3-0||51-54-3||47.15|
|vs AL Conference Opponent||7-12||135-173||40.34||10-7-2||138-156-14||47.12|
|Coming off vs AL EAST Division Opponent||2-2||46-53||48.23||2-0-2||42-53-4||27.9|
|Coming off vs American Conference Opponent||6-11||137-169||40.03||8-7-2||133-157-16||50.41|
|Coming off 1 over||1-4||62-81||31.68||3-1-1||69-59-15||35.55|
|Coming off a win||1-7||116-150||28.06||3-3-2||132-119-15||48.71|
|Coming off a Road Win as a Favorite||0-1||36-50||20.93||0-1-0||42-41-3||74.7|
|During a night game||5-10||193-247||38.6||7-6-2||198-208-34||48.69|
|Coming off a 5 road trip||0-1||17-13||28.34||0-1-0||13-16-1||77.59|
|Coming off a 11 runs win (since 1996)||8-4||1-2||50||5-7-0||1-2-0||62.5|
|Coming off a score 15 runs FOR in last game (since 1996)||3-6||0-1||16.67||5-4-0||1-0-0||22.22|
|Coming off a score 4 runs AGAINST in last game||1-2||43-34||44.59||2-1-0||34-41-2||44|
|vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning %||1-7||90-140||25.82||5-2-1||101-115-14||40.91|
|vs TORONTO (since 1996)||38-30||11-9||55.44||29-33-6||13-5-2||40.51|
|Coming off a Win over AL EAST division opponent||0-2||19-24||22.1||0-0-2||20-21-2||25.61|
|Coming off a game that went over||1-4||62-81||31.68||3-1-1||69-59-15||35.55|
|Coming off a night game||5-8||190-234||41.64||8-4-1||179-211-34||43.72|
|Split 1st 2 games of a series||2-2||48-63||46.62||3-1-0||45-63-3||41.67|
|Coming off a win in game 2 of a series||0-1||41-45||23.84||1-0-0||45-38-3||22.89|
|Last 30 days||4-10||195-257||35.86||7-5-2||185-228-39||48.44|
|Last 45 days||7-15||289-368||37.91||11-9-2||287-324-46||49.02|
|Last 60 days||7-15||291-369||37.96||11-9-2||288-326-46||49.05|
|Last 90 days||7-15||291-369||37.96||11-9-2||288-326-46||49.05|
|Vs. Left handed pitchers||0-8||94-93||25.14||3-4-1||88-85-14||53.14|
|Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher||6-14||216-251||38.13||11-8-1||202-231-34||47.73|
|Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher||1-5||77-108||29.15||2-2-2||86-87-12||50.15|
|Offensive Stats||Defensive Stats|
|All Games Avg||3.98||3.93|
|Home Games Avg||4.1||3.48|
|Road Games Avg||3.86||4.36|
|Last 3 Games Avg||8.33||4.67|
|Last 5 Games Avg||6.4||4.8|
|Last 10 Games Avg||5.2||3.8|
|vs. Division Games Avg||4.71||4.19|
|vs. Conference Games Avg||4.31||4.08|
|vs. Non Conference Games Avg||2.29||3.14|
|vs. Top Ranked Games Avg||2.65||3.59|
|vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg||5.67||4.67|
|vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg||4.14||3.71|
|After a Win Games Avg||3.5||4|
|After a Lost Games Avg||4.45||4.25|
|After a SU Road Win Games Avg||3.33||4.17|
|After a SU Road Lost Games Avg||5.08||4.25|
|After a SU Home Win Games Avg||3.58||3.92|
|After a SU Home Lost Games Avg||3.5||4.25|
|After an Over Games Avg||3.79||4.11|
|After an Under Games Avg||3.62||3.9|
|After a Push Games Avg||10.5||4.5|
|When TORONTO is a Home Team||When Any MLB Team is a Home Team||Differential %||When TORONTO is a Home Team,the O/U||When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U||Differential % on game going UNDER|
|Situations||Current Season||Current Season||Differential %||Current Season||Current Season||Differential %|
|Total is 9.5||0-2||6-10||18.75||0-2-0||9-7-0||71.88|
|vs Non-Division opponent||6-5||156-179||50.56||7-3-1||138-176-21||43.03|
|vs Conference opponent||2-4||94-106||40.17||3-2-1||83-101-16||47.45|
|Playing in the month of May||4-4||94-116||47.38||5-2-1||89-103-18||41.11|
|Playing on Thursday||1-2||23-43||34.09||3-0-0||33-31-2||24.22|
|Played as home Favorite||8-8||226-220||50.34||11-3-2||192-218-36||37.3|
|After a Non-Division Game||6-5||139-181||49||8-2-1||132-167-21||37.93|
|After a Conference Game||3-3||104-108||49.53||3-2-1||86-110-16||48.06|
|vs AL CENTRAL Division Opponent||1-1||50-51||49.75||1-0-1||51-44-6||23.16|
|vs AL Conference Opponent||5-10||131-172||38.28||9-4-2||143-147-13||40.73|
|Coming off vs AL CENTRAL Division Opponent||1-1||42-52||47.34||2-0-0||50-39-5||21.91|
|Coming off vs American Conference Opponent||6-9||125-166||41.48||9-4-2||140-136-15||40.03|
|Coming off 1 over||5-2||73-77||60.05||5-2-0||72-65-13||38.01|
|Coming off a lost||5-6||182-193||46.99||6-4-1||164-187-24||46.64|
|Coming off a Home Lost as a Underdog||1-1||59-69||48.05||0-2-0||53-66-9||77.73|
|During a night game||7-7||194-246||47.05||10-2-2||198-208-34||33.95|
|Coming off a 8 home stand (since 1996)||13-11||6-4||57.09||10-13-1||4-6-0||58.26|
|Coming off a 11 runs loss (since 1996)||3-3||1-1||50||4-2-0||1-1-0||41.67|
|Coming off a score 4 runs FOR in last game||2-2||34-42||47.37||2-1-1||37-34-5||40.61|
|Coming off a score 15 runs AGAINST in last game (since 1996)||1-1||1-0||75||1-1-0||1-0-0||25|
|vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning %||7-7||107-129||47.67||7-5-2||104-115-17||47.09|
|vs CLEVELAND (since 1996)||30-38||12-10||49.34||29-33-6||11-9-2||49.12|
|Coming off a Lost over AL Central division opponent||1-0||21-21||75||1-0-0||19-21-2||26.25|
|Coming off a game that went over||5-2||73-77||60.05||5-2-0||72-65-13||38.01|
|Coming off a night game||5-9||200-245||40.33||9-3-2||193-218-34||39.02|
|Split 1st 2 games of a series||0-2||47-64||21.17||2-0-0||45-63-3||29.17|
|Coming off a lost in game 2 of a series||1-2||–||16.67||2-1-0||–||16.67|
|Last 30 days||6-8||205-247||44.11||9-3-2||185-228-39||40.11|
|Last 45 days||9-11||300-357||45.33||13-5-2||287-324-46||40.41|
|Last 60 days||9-11||301-359||45.31||13-5-2||288-326-46||40.44|
|Last 90 days||9-11||301-359||45.31||13-5-2||288-326-46||40.44|
|Vs. Right handed pitchers||5-8||218-261||41.99||9-2-2||214-232-33||35.1|
|Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher||6-6||210-249||47.88||8-3-1||194-235-30||41.03|
|Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher||4-5||122-145||45.07||5-3-1||112-138-17||46.35|
|Offensive Stats||Defensive Stats|
|All Games Avg||4.83||4.71|
|Home Games Avg||5.45||5.5|
|Road Games Avg||4.27||4|
|Last 3 Games Avg||5.33||7.33|
|Last 5 Games Avg||4.4||7.2|
|Last 10 Games Avg||5.6||5.1|
|vs. Division Games Avg||4.44||4.75|
|vs. Conference Games Avg||4.4||4.89|
|vs. Non Conference Games Avg||7||3.86|
|vs. Top Ranked Games Avg||4.57||5.43|
|vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg||4.38||5.38|
|vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg||5.04||4.33|
|After a Win Games Avg||5.1||4.65|
|After a Lost Games Avg||4.7||4.35|
|After a SU Road Win Games Avg||4.36||2.64|
|After a SU Road Lost Games Avg||5.2||4.1|
|After a SU Home Win Games Avg||6||7.11|
|After a SU Home Lost Games Avg||4.2||4.6|
|After an Over Games Avg||5||4.04|
|After an Under Games Avg||4.73||4.67|
|After a Push Games Avg||5||11|
The Report shows these teams at about evenish, but perhaps a small advantage with Toronto.
So after the real-time synopsis of how these teams and the pitching stacks up against each other,
and after the ATS Stats blowout that seemed to show Toronto in a strong position to win,
and after the Raymond Report that makes a small case for the Jays,
We’re still only left barely covering the vig over time.
So what’s that one last consideration to make this a worthwhile investment?
As we saw in the TEX@HOU blowout the other day, some umpires love to make the crowd cheer.
As we saw in the NYM@NYY 11-7 slobberknocker, some umps have an impossibly small strike zone thereby directly causing many runs to cross the plate.
In games where we’ve got an umpire with an extreme Strike Zone, or in games where umpires always seem to favour the home team (or visiting team), it might be worth it to factor them into decisions.
Paul Emmel has the plate at CLE@TOR.
Paul Emmel has his home teams winning 6-1 so far this season.
Paul Emmel also has a particularly large strikezone. Pitchers have averaged a 2.50ERA and a WHIP of 0.9 with him behind the plate. This is indicative of an extremely large strikezone.
- It could mean that the pitching advantage is diminished.
- It could also mean that the batting advantage is amplified that much more.
Toronto is at home today.
Toronto has the lesser pitcher.
Toronto has the better bats.
So that is the key to this. At the end of the day, after all is done and said, in a matchup with an extreme umpire, such as Emmel appears to be…it looks like we are banking on the Umpire’s relationship with the real-time position of this game.
This game looks like it should go over with CLE and TOR bats facing slack pitching…but after you factor in CLE hitting vs LH, and after you factor in the massive strikezone, this might well stay under the total.
Tonight’s Prediction: TORONTO to win 4-3.