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Toronto Blue Jays (Buehrle) @ Boston Red Sox (Lester) – Preview May 22nd, 2014


Today’s MLB Analysis

Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays 
O/U :8.5



Date: 2014-05-22
Time: 15:05:00

Generated from 56 Previous Games

Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
SIDE :-154

5.63 = 9.91


Buehrle has obviously had a fantastic breakout season so far, and continues to remain so.
In his last 3 starts, Buehrle has accrued an ERA of 1.82 including 12 strike-outs.

Lester is also having the season of his life, throwing some of his best ball on record.
In his last 3 starts, Lester not only marks an impressive ERA of 1.80, but he’s also chalked up a mind-blowing 30 strike-outs. Double digit Ks, 3 games in a row, is league elite.

This is the fundamental of today’s consideration.

If we were trying to make a case for Toronto, upon Lester’s record, we would be forced to abandon ship; so, let’s see if maybe there is a case for Boston.

Firstly, it needs to be said that Buehrle has thrown a 0.64ERA in day games across 14IP this year so far. That is an intimidating statistic. Coupled with the fact that he does his best work when playing away games, Buehrle shouldn’t be taken likely. With that said, although not quite on par with Buehrle, Lester does his best work at home, and in the daytime as well.


The point and consideration that stands out the strongest is the batter vs pitcher history.

Boston threats averaging over .250 vs Buehrle:
Napoli .400 across 10 at bats
Pedroia .391 across 23 at bats
Pierzynski .500 across 2 at bats
Bradley Jr. 1.000 across 2 at bats
Ortiz .286 across 10 at bats
Ross .250 across 12 at bats.

Toronto threats averaging over .250 vs Lester:

That’s right. Across the 201 At Bats that the Blue Jay roster has had against Lester, ZERO of them amount to over 200; in fact, the numbers are so dismal that Navarro holds the highest average at .200 across 15 times at the plate vs Lester, and the rest are all UNDER .200.

  • The case for the Boston pick today is that traditionally Lester has absolutely slain this Blue Jays lineup in arguably the strongest batter vs pitcher matchup that is possible.
  • The case for the Boston pick today lies in the fact that Lester has been every bit of a pitcher as Mark Buehrle has, and if we look at the last 3 games, Lester is the hottest Strike-Out pitcher in the league at the moment.

Considering that strong umpire trends went 9-2 last night, it might also be worth it to note that the projected umpire, Gary Cederstrom is 5-2 for the home team as well.

It was said, “Toronto is the one team that I never fade. Their bats are far too intense and can pop double digits on almost any given day,” but when I look at Lester, I get the feeling that Toronto might find themselves in a cooler today and Boston fans will be happy to see Lester stop the sweep as Toronto sits 2-0 in this 3 game series.

Unfortunately, with Boston sitting at -129, the value could be a little better. (That’s what home games and ace pitchers will do to the home line.) But with that said, I think we could do worse and if we want to play a team for today, Boston would probably be the one.

In this case, ATS STATS is perfectly even across both teams, but the Raymond Report is extremely strong with Toronto and against Boston. As we know, for ATS Stats to be at it’s most affective, we like to see teams:

  • that are playing their best when compared to the rest of the season. (SOS)
  • that are playing better than their opponents when compared to the rest of the league. (RR)
  • that have historically dominated their opponents. (ATSSTATS)

But in today’s game, Toronto’s L7G has dropped 7 SOS points from where they were 14 games ago. Boston has dropped too, but they’ve only dropped 4. So we don’t get the SOS considersation.

The RR makes a case to state that generally Toronto is far better than Boston when compared to the rest of the league.

ATS Stats makes absolutely no comment either way as to who has done better historically in this position.


So in this case, starting pitchers, ‘splits’, ‘vs stats’, and umpire trends might be where to look to find out which way to lean.



Today’s Prediction: BOSTON to win in a 3-2 grinder.









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