The pitching in today’s matchup is just about even Steven. While Keuchel has a better vs record against Seattle hitters, Iwakuma has a better season ERA as well as the better performance L3G.
- Keuchel is 2.92 all season
- Iwakuma is 1.76 all season.
- Keuchel is 1.42 L3G
- Iwakuma is 0.75 L3G
We can’t make a case on the pitching aside to say that it looks conducive with an under total.
- HOU’s pen is 5.17 all games.
- HOU’s pen is 5.40 on the road.
- SEA’s pen is 3.20 all games.
- SEA’s pen is 3.38 at home.
Definitely the case could be made for Seattle’s bullpen to show more promise; however, with starters like these, it’s likely that both pens will get minimal gametime as these pitchers promise to go deep. Both pitchers typically pitch 8 full innings so the bullpen should be of minimal affect.
- HOU is averaging 3.6 runs all games.
- HOU is 3.3 on the road.
- HOU is 3.7 vs RH Starters.
- SEA is averaging 4.2 runs all games.
- SEA is 3.5 at home.
- SEA is 4.5 vs LH Starters.
Splits show the hitting to be equal, but looking at the all season totals, SEA should stand better by about 1 run or so.
- The Astros are 23rd in the league with a .681OPS
- The Mariners are 26th in the league with a .670OPS
Umpire Tom Hallion is 4-4 for the home team and 4-4 for the OU.
The umping should be standard fare and not play into the outcome.
ATS STATS MATCHUPS
Historical considerations that SUPPORT the Seattle pick:
|When H Iwakuma \’s Team played as Home Favourite- With Total between 6 and 7||8-2-0|
|When SEATTLE played as Favourite- Vs AL WEST||9-5-11|
|When HOUSTON played as Road Team- With a spread between 140 and 160||23-52-0|
|When D Keuchel \’s Team played as Underdog- With a spread between 140 and 160||3-7-0|
|When HOUSTON played as Road Underdog- With a spread between 140 and 160||11-34-0|
|When ANY MLB Team (Astros) Played as Road team as a Underdog – Coming off vs. American League opponent – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Vs AL Conference – Coming off a Home loss – Coming off a 2 game under – Coming off a Home loss as a Underdog||14-26-0|
Historical considerations that THREATEN the Seattle pick:
|When SEATTLE played as Home Team- With a spread between 160 and 180||5-10-0|
So it’s in the ATS Matchup where we find our best reason for the Seattle pick.
With all things basically equal, bats, pens, pitching, umpiring, to see this strong of a positional deficit is very revealing. Positionally speaking, this game is over before it starts. It’s unclear what the average would be, but according to ATS Matchups and speaking historically, it looks as if Houston would be lucky to have even a 30% chance of winning this contest.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
|HOUSTON||18 – 32||36.00||64.00||53.57||0.45||3 – 4||42.86||57.14||63.26||0.53||7 – 7||50||50||47.96||0.49|
|SEATTLE||24 – 24||50.00||50.00||49.84||0.50||4 – 3||57.14||42.86||51.02||0.54||6 – 8||42.86||57.14||52.04||0.47|
So also we see a recent uptrend, especially with Seattle.
When a team has a clear SOS advantage as well as the Forecast, there is a type of synergy that makes that team particularly viable for the win. With that said, in this case, there is only 7 games to generate that value.
Today’s Prediction: Seattle to win 4-2.