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Tonight’s prediction will be a quick pick.
We could talk about how Koehler is the better pitcher L3G.
We could talk about how Price struggles a little bit in home games with a 5.13ERA.
We could talk about how both of their bullpens are equal 3.97ERA.
We could talk about how umpire Adam Hamari is 5-6 for the home team W/L.
We could talk about how the Rays have the worst bats in the league L7G averaging 1.7RPG.
But at the end of the day…
…the only thing we need to discuss that makes this pick completely valid is…
Tonight’s prediction lives and dies on it’s value.
We’ve been following this series, and we made a mistake a few days ago.
We saw crystal clear value with Miami and we stayed away.
Why? Because we didn’t see sharp money moving the line with Miami at all and we had no way to explain the surplus value.
Usually, if a line is too good to be true, and there is no sharp movement, it means there is something going on.
It turns out that what was going on was that Tampa Bay had lost 6 straight games.
So anyone that’s taken in Money Management 101 ( http://atsstats.com/handicapping-and-sports-gambling-102/ ) knows that people betting negative progression systems are putting down huge money for Tampa Bay to finally win on nothing more than “the chances of them going 7 straight”.
This is what is causing the value on the Miami pick and this is why Maimi blew away the Rays in a 4-0 rout despite being underdogs.
The only thing that’s changed between then and now is that the Rays have lost 8 straight instead of 6…and the Rays are now high chalk at -185 instead of only -125.
ATS Matchups, ATS Report and ATS Forecast all have Tampa Bay to stand better tonight vs Miami in this position, but this is an extenuating circumstance and this is an AT OWN RISK bet…but with value like this…1/2 a unit is completely justified and should earn over time.
Tonight’s Prediction: MIAMI to win tonight 5-3.