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New York Mets
Generated from 5 Previous Games
1.5 = 4.25
Between Clint Fagan and the NYM bats, we thought the Mets make a strong case as a solid pick.
The Mets are only a few games behind .500 and will be wanting to cash in on a target team like the Cubs.
The downside for the Mets is Travis Wood. He has done a really good job stymieing the NYM lineup in his last 2 starts and whether or not that remains the same is in question. Although Wood has a bad L3G ERA of 5.82…it’s really only Wood’s last outing vs Milwaukee that stands out and makes up for most of that.
Wood’s ERA at night games is a dismal 5.94 and and he’s got issues against RHH where he’s got a 5.82ERA.
On the flip side of that, the Mets are averaging 5.0RPG L7G (probably one of the best hitting streaks in the franchise’s history) and so instead of being intimidated by Wood, they will be looking for revenge, and knowing that they can have it. Besides the L7G, the Mets are 4.7RPG all season meaning that hitting many and hitting hard is not at all new to them. The Mets can get this done!
The Cubs have hitting issues of late. Not only are they a slow 3.4RPG all season, but they’re 3.3RPG L7G. Unless the Cubs bats learned something new over night, they should have problems keeping up with New York.
There is no gimmes in picking winners, but at even money, we feel that the Mets might be a good try.
In addition to the practical stats, it should not go without mentioning that when Clint Fagan is behind the plate in 2014 games, the visiting teams have won 10-1. This could definitely play into the grand scheme of things as Fagan is definitely an extreme umpire. Fagan’s games have also resulted in an O/U record of 1-10 meaning that there will be a massive strikezone. While this tends to benefit the lesser of the pitchers (of which deGrom and Wood appear to be about equal), a large strikezone also amplifies the advantage that the stronger bats have.
There aren’t too many ATS stats that point with any solidity one way or the other, but we should note a few of the blue stars:
Like on any given night it’s tough to say what will happen, but it’s crystal clear that the Mets have at least every chance to win this, and that’s before we factor in the Umpire biases.
This should be a really good game to watch, but it’s not worth more than 1/2 a unit.
Tonight’s Prediction: New York Mets to 4-3.