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Generated from 70 Previous Games
Boston Red Sox
4.53 = 9.39
Today’s value shot is really only reflected in the Forecast which has Cleveland up by .33 runs and the PVI consideration.
PARITY VALUE INDEX
|0 – 3
2 – 1
|33 – 33
30 – 36
|1 – 2
0 – 3
|36 – 28
25 – 38
Cleveland in a strong position to win as well we should expect it over the total according to P.V.I. considerations. (although the L3G ERA of the pitchers combined is 3.73ERA)
The Cleveland pick is justified by 2 things:
1. The odds have Cleveland as a clear dog at +132.
2. Although all games ERA stats have Lackey clearly ahead, the splits tell us a different story.
- Masterson is 3.24ERA @away.
- Masterson is 2.74ERA @night.
- Masterson is 1.72ERA L3G.
- Masterson is 4-3 vs Boston with an ERA of 3.66 and a WHIP of 1.123.
- Lackey is 3.92ERA @home.
- Lackey is 3.25ERA @night.
- Lackey is 2.01ERA L3G.
- Lackey is 7-8 vs Cleveland with an ERA of 3.93 and a WHIP of 1.389.
Bonus consideration #1!
Since Lackey is a weak 5.82ERA vs LH hitters, he faces some serious .OPS over .700 in:
Chisenhall @ 1.057OPS
Brantley @ .885OPS
Morgan @ .868OPS
Murphy @ .778OPS
Cabrera @ .757OPS
Kipnis @ .716OPS
Bourn @ .708OPS
Chisenhall @ 1.782OPS
Brantley @ 1.026OPS
Kipnis @ .742OPS
Murphy @ .846OPS
Cabrera @ .764OPS
Although the line is not set, we can bet that we’ll see the most of these LH hitters in the lineup today.
Lackey absolutely has his work cut out for him and he’s up against a team who’s hitting is firing on all cylinders at the moment.
Bonus consideration #2!
- Cleveland is hitting a blistering 5.1RPG vs RHP.
- CLEVELAND is hitting 5.1RPG all season.
- CLEVELAND is hitting 6.4RPG L7G.
- BOSTON is hitting 3.6RPG all season.
- BOSTON is hitting 2.6RPG L7G.
- Cleveland’s bullpen is 3.14ERA all games.
- Cleveland’s bullpen is 3.26ERA on the road.
- Boston’s bullpen is 2.93ERA all season.
- Boston’s bullpen is 2.86ERA at home.
Tallion is 5-4 to the home team. There should be no side bias relevant in tonight’s outcome.
Matchups and Report both make cases for Boston to win in this position but the realtime stats, PVI, Forecast and ‘case-specific’ factors like Cleveland’s red hot LH hitting, and Lackey’s failures vs LH hitters, combined with Cleveland hitters being particularly effective vs RHP.
We should suspect that this is priced too good to be true except for the fact that:
- Boston is a namebrand team.
- Boston has a populace majority.
- Boston is the home team.
- Boston is priced as chalk.
- It’s the weekend.
So we are getting tons of bonus value on Cleveland here and we should expect some good return in this position over time.
Tonight’s Prediction: CLEVELAND to win 4-3.