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Kansas City Royals (Vargas) vs. Detroit Tigers (Verlander) – Preview June 16th, 2014

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Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals 
O/U :8.5



Date: 2014-06-16
Time: 18:05:00

Generated from 48 Previous Games

Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers
SIDE :-140

4.27 = 7.72



DET 36 – 29 55.38 44.62 49.78 0.53 3 – 4 42.86 57.14 36.74 0.40 5 – 9 35.71 64.29 46.43 0.41
KCR 36 – 32 52.94 47.06 49.82 0.51 7 – 0 100 0 40.82 0.70 10 – 4 71.43 28.57 50.51 0.61


So the beautiful thing about the SOS comparison is that despite how teams are shaping up through the season on average, we can see how they stack up against each other recently. Since everything works in cycles ie. hot streaks and cold streaks, we can see that the Royals are at their best and Detroit is nearing their worst. This can be a treasure trove when teams start the season hot but then cool off and face teams that started off cool but are now coming into their own. It’s this consideration, in addition to the fact that KCR has won 7 straight, (causing massive action on Detroit for no other reason than the Royals are due to lose), that we see such a deal on the Kansas City ML (+138).

To find a SOS discrepancy of 30 points is extremely rare and a powerful consideration.



So what practical real-time chances do the Royals have against Detroit today?


Part of the answer lies in the pitching matchup:


  • Vargas is 2-2 vs Detroit with a ERA of 5.01 and a WHIP of 1.403.
  • Verlander is 17-5 vs Kansas with a ERA of 2.88 and a WHIP of 1.163

It’s tough to think that with stats like these the case favour Kansas, but when we begin to scratch the surface, I think we see these historical consideration take the background while the real-time data, perhaps, takes precedence in the forefront.

Vargas has traditionally had issues pitching against:

  • Cabrera @.308 across 13 at bats. (L7G: .308AVG, .833OPS)
  • Kinsler @.304 across 46 at bats. (L7G: .231AVG, .593OPS)
  • Martinez @ .500 across 6 at bats. (L7G: .375AVG, 1.298OPS)
  • Romine @ .333 across 3 at bats. (Likely not in lineup)



Verlander has traditionally had issues pitching against:

  • Butler .451 across 51 at bats.  (L7G: .444AVG, 1.167OPS)
  • Perez .381 across 21 at bats. (L7G: .350AVG, .1.009OPS)
  • Ciriaco .500 across 2 at bats. (Likely not in lineup)


At the end of the day, The Tigers have some hitting, but so do the Royals.




Royals are hitting:

  • 4.4RPG on the road.
  • 4.2RPG vs RHP.
  • 6.4RPG L7G.

Tigers are hitting:

  • 4.5RPG at home.
  • 5.2RPG vs LHP.
  • 4.3RPG L7G.






Royals’ bullpen is:

  • 3.44ERA all games.
  • 2.15ERA on the road.


Tigers’ bullpen is:

  • 4.78ERA all games.
  • 6.17ERA at home.

Not that there is any reason to think that the Royals will have a large deficit going into the back 3 innings…but if that were to happen, the game would just be getting started. This game might boil down to how badly Kansas City can tax one of the leagues worst bullpens.

Bottom line? Due to Detroit’s pen, Kansas City will have chances to win this through all 9 innings and it should therefore make for some quality viewing.




ATS Raymond Report: Slight edge Kansas.
ATS Strength of Schedule: Maximum Strength edge with Kansas.
ATS Forecast: Slight edge Detroit.
ATS Matchups: Edge with Detroit.




At +138, there is no way to go wrong here.
The Kansas consideration, in this position, should prove to earn over time.



Tonight’s Prediction: Kansas City to win 5-3.






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