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Washington Nationals (Gonzalez) vs. Cincinnati Reds (Cueto) – Preview July 26th, 2014

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Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals 
SIDE :-1173.63
Vs.Date: 2014-07-25
Time: 18:10:00

Generated from 41 Previous Games

Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
O/U :7.5
2.7 = 6.33


Pick: Washington Nationals – 117 (1/2 unit max.)


Our primary consideration here is the clandestine value with Washington.

This line opened with Washington at -117.
It took a roller coaster ride with Cincinnati to -125
Since late morning, the line has twice steamed Washington back to +104.


Q: If Washington has such value, why does Cincinnati have 65% of the action?

A: a) Same reason as yesterday. There is a 19:1 populace difference between D.C. and Ohio. For every 1 person betting Washington because it’s their home team, there are 19 to bet Cincinnati.
b) Same reason as yesterday. Cincinnati now has Martingale systems chasing 7 straight losses causing massive amounts of unjustified action on Cincinnati that has nothing to do with who’s hitting or who’s pitching.


A couple great questions that we’d like to ask is:

Q: If Cincinnati has 65% of the action, then where did the 2 massive Washington steam lines come from?

A: Quite possibly from the sharp handicappers.



  • L7G, Nationals have scored 5.3 RPG and allowed 3.4 runs against per game.
  • L7G, Reds have scored 1.9 RPG and allowed 4.6 runs against per game.
  • The National’s Gio Gonzalez is 3.74 ERA all season and 3.00 ERA L3G.
  • The Reds’ Johnny Cueto is 2.18 ERA all season but 3.64 ERA L3G
  • The Nationals’ bullpen is throwing 2.60 ERA all season.
  • The Reds’ bullpen is throwing 3.83 ERA all season.
  • Gonzalez is 1.00 ERA vs Cincinnati with a WHIP of 0.704 across 2 starts.
  • Cueto is 4.58 ERA vs Washington with a WHIP of 1.309 across an established 8 starts.


*It can’t be understated … finding these kinds of practical chances to win assigned to a team that is offering dog odds is definitely a red flag and we don’t recommend taking this kind of value without understanding the market situation as illogical value is most often explained by sharp money being dumped on the team that looks like it’s without chances to win. In this case, due to market considerations, we find it to be a false red flag and are comfortable taking advantage of the Washington line.


  • Umpire Nelson has a fairly healthy strike-zone so no pitcher should have a particular advantage with Nelson behind the plate.



  • Gives Washington nearly a 1 point advantage.



Gives Cincinnati a clear advantage.


Gives Cincinnati a slight advantage.


Due to the Matchups and Report, we are going to downshift our wager. They indicate that the Reds’ threaten a win in this position, nonetheless, we are confident that the value lies in the Washington consideration.


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